The NFL Draft will commence at 8:00 PM EST on Thursday evening and run through Saturday. Given the current state of the world, the draft will be a virtual draft for the first time in history as the gathering of large crowds is now prohibited. Due to the action starved state of sports fans around the world, this year’s draft will undoubtedly be the most-watched NFL Draft in recent memory.
Along with the spotlight and attention that comes with the draft will also come wagering and nothing is more popular that prop bets when you’re talking about the draft. The question then becomes: How do you identify winning wagers/prop bets with the draft? Well, the easiest way is to get some buddies on a zoom conference and take advantage of the donkey. The guy who doesn’t know anything but is loose with his cash. Venmo and PayPal make this incredibly easy.
Of course, at your favorite bookie site you will find a nice list of prop bets to wager on, here are some of my favorites and why.
Need and History
There was a time when running back was the coveted position in the NFL. The Heisman race was once filled to the gills with running backs that would go on to disappoint fan bases all over the nation because they either weren’t prepared for the expanded NFL playbook, weren’t good enough in pass protection or were simply neutralized by the physical and athletic hybrids on the defensive side of the football.
These days, NFL franchises seem to focus on certain positions in the first round because the talent often translates. Edge rushers, offensive lineman and shut-down cornerbacks. If you can protect the quarterback or put pressure on the opposing quarterback, you have a ton of value. If you can mark a receiver on an island and keep him from getting the ball and taking it to house, you have value.
Now, when the line was at 4.5 for cornerbacks, I was on the over. Currently, the line sits are 6.5 on most betting sites so now I am on the under. That is just a simple matter of math. There are 32 picks per round. At least three are going to be quarterbacks with the potential of four, there is also going to be a huge run on offensive linemen in this draft as well as defensive tackles and a couple of linebackers. I think the number you will see is 6 defensive backs, squeaking in under the wire with Terrell being selected with one of the first three picks of the second round. You’re going to sweat it out for that (-210), but it’s the correct side.
If you feel the need to bet on running backs at 1.5, I am going under even though it carries little value at (-600).
Ravens going with offense (+120) or defense (-160)?
This may surprise some people but the Ravens actually draft for the offense in the first round quite often. In fact, five of their last six first-round selections have been on the offensive side of the football. Picking at #28, some mocks have them selecting linebacker Zach Braun but I think they need some help at receiver. If Denzel Mims of Baylor or Tee Higgins of Clemson is still available, I think that is the pick. I am taking the (+120).
Believe the hype not the misinformation
Perhaps the easiest bet on the prop bet board is “who is the second quarterback drafted?” Always remember that the NFL franchises are trying to gain an advantage over the others. Tua is going to be the second signal-caller off of the board. You are going to pay a vig, but just take the easy money at (-130). Take this bet at our favorite pay per head bookie site https://www.realbookies.com/.
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