Philadelphia (10-7) at New Orleans (13-3)
When: Sunday, January 13th, 2019
Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome,
New Orleans, Louisiana
Time: 4:40 ET | TV: FOX
Opening Odds: New Orleans -9.5/51
A lot of Philadelphia Eagles’ fans thought this team was dead after a Week 11 blowout loss in New Orleans, but that setback seemed to light a fire under these guys and have been rolling ever since. The Eagles look for their seventh win in past eight games when they go back to the Big Easy to take on the Saints in an NFC Divisional Playoff game on Sunday. Philadelphia is seeking to return to the Super Bowl for the second consecutive season, but the Saints have other ideas behind an explosive offense that scorched the Eagles 48-7 on November 18th behind 22-of-30 passing for Drew Brees, 363 yards, and four touchdowns. Philly has a quarterback who just can’t lose in the postseason in Nick Foles, who helped lead the team to its fourth straight victory overall by throwing for 266 yards and two touchdowns in a 16-15 decision at Chicago on Sunday. New Orleans finished 13-3 and earned the No. 1 seed in the NFC, while leading the NFL in point differential and was sixth in rushing. The Saints’ three losses were to Dallas, Tampa Bay and Carolina. Last year, the Saints were also NFC South champions but had to play on Wild-Card Weekend. They beat Carolina but then lost on the Minneapolis Miracle in the Divisional Round at the Vikings.
The Eagles were not happy after their earlier trip to New Orleans as tackle Jason Peters accused the Saints of running up the score. The Eagles were down 17-0 quickly, then rookie Josh Adams’ 28-yard rushing touchdown midway into the second quarter trimmed New Orleans’ lead to 17-7. Former Saints running back Darren Sproles has scored a touchdown (two receiving, one rushing) three times in his past six games and could play a key role versus his former team. Alshon Jeffery seems to get more targets when Foles is under center and had a team-leading six catches for 82 yards versus the Bears and 18 receptions for 329 yards and two scores in his last three meetings with New Orleans. Fellow wideout Golden Tate has at least five catches in four of his last eight games, including the previous meeting versus the Saints.
The Saints best receiver may be Pro Bowler Michael Thomas, but it was rookie Tre’Quan Smith who torched the Eagles in Week 11 with 10 receptions, 157 yards, and a touchdown. The Eagles own the third worst pass defense in the NFL and allowed Chicago’s Mitchell Trubisky to throw for 303 yards, so the Saints probably feel like they’ll have some success Sunday. If that doesn’t go as planned, they still have a great running back duo in Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara, who combined for 174 yards rushing versus Philadelphia earlier. The Saints defense ranks 29th versus the pass, but second against the run as is led by Pro Bowl defensive end Cameron Jordan, who has a team-leading 12 sacks this season.
The Saints seem to have a big advantage in this one, but Foles and head coach Doug Pederson just keep finding ways to defy the odds, winning their last four playoff games outright despite being underdogs in each. The Eagles offense finds a way to keep up in this one and at least stay close.
Pick: Eagles +8
Betting Trends:
- Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games.
- Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in January.
- Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
- Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Divisional Playoffs games.
- Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
- Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Eagles are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC.
- Eagles are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 playoff road games.
- Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.
- Eagles are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games following a ATS win.
- Eagles are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games on fieldturf.
- Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Saints are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in January.
- Saints are 25-6 ATS in their last 31 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Saints are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Saints are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points.
- Saints are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Saints are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Saints are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC.
- Saints are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games on fieldturf.
- Saints are 48-22-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Over is 6-1 in Eagles last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in Eagles last 6 Divisional Playoffs games.
- Over is 4-1 in Eagles last 5 games on fieldturf.
- Under is 6-2-1 in Eagles last 9 games in January.
- Over is 22-8 in Eagles last 30 road games.
- Under is 5-2 in Eagles last 7 vs. NFC.
- Over is 5-2 in Eagles last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 36-16 in Eagles last 52 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 11-5-1 in Eagles last 17 playoff games.
- Over is 6-0 in Saints last 6 playoff home games.
- Under is 5-1 in Saints last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in Saints last 6 vs. NFC.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Saints last 6 Divisional Playoffs games.
- Over is 4-1 in Saints last 5 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points.
- Over is 7-2 in Saints last 9 games following a straight up loss.
- Over is 10-3-1 in Saints last 14 playoff games.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Saints last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home.
- Over is 11-4 in Saints last 15 games following a ATS loss.
- Over is 18-7-1 in Saints last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 5-2 in Saints last 7 games overall.
- Over is 12-5 in Saints last 17 games in January.
- Under is 12-5 in Saints last 17 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 21-9-1 in Saints last 31 home games.
- Over is 13-6 in Saints last 19 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
- Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
