Miami (0-6) at Pittsburgh (2-4)
When: Monday, October 28th, 2019
Where: Heinz Field,
Pittsburgh, PA
Time: 8:15 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Pittsburgh -16.5/42.5
The Miami Dolphins are making their 85th appearance on Monday Night Football, and this could very well be the worst team they’ve ever had entering this week’s contest with the Pittsburgh Steelers. It’s no secret really that the Dolphins are tanking and looking to stockpile draft picks for a future run at the Super Bowl. Miami comes in at 0-6, but have a little momentum with a 31-21 loss – and cover – against the Buffalo Bills last week as 17-point underdogs. In a bit of a surprise, first-year coach Brian Flores switched back to veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback after previously saying young Josh Rosen would keep the job the rest of the season. Fitzpatrick threw for 282 yards and a touchdown but threw a pick and fumbled twice (both recovered by the Dolphins). He also rushed for a score and will get the start on Monday. Pittsburgh has used three different starting quarterbacks this season because of injury and Mason Rudolph, who has been cleared from concussion protocol, is expected to be under center on Monday night. Devlin Hodges stepped in and sent the Steelers into their bye week on a high following a 24-17 victory at the Los Angeles Chargers on October 13th. The last time these teams met, the Dolphins were actually a playoff team following the 2016 season. The Steelers beat Miami 30-12 in the Wild Card round that year, as Ben Roethlisberger threw two TD passes to Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell rushed for two scores. Both Brown and Bell are gone now. Matt Moore was the starting QB for Miami and he’s now in Kansas City. Pittsburgh has won six of the past 10 in the series but has failed to cover the past three.
Miami led 14-9 entering the fourth quarter last week at Buffalo but two turnovers were a killer and turned the game around. The 21 points scored were a season high, but the defense is still an issue. They rank dead last in points allowed (35.2) and have a ridiculous -148 point differential thanks to their 31st ranked offense. Miami averages only 258.7 yards a game and the running back spot is now in the hands of Mark Walton, who has supplanted Kenyan Drake and Kalen Ballage on the depth chart. Walton made the most of his first career NFL start on Sunday by rushing for a career-best 66 yards and averages 4.6 yards per carry. The Dolphins, who are 3-12 ATS in their past 15 road games, will host the New York Jets next Sunday.
Hodges completed 15-of-20 for 132 yards, a touchdown and an interception against the Chargers and the bye week gave Rudolph more time to clear the concussion protocol. The Steelers will look to exploit the Dolphins’ 31st-ranked rush defense with James Conner, who had 119 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns before sustaining a quad injury against the Chargers. He’ll be ready to go Monday. The Steelers have a top Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate in linebacker Devin Bush, who was named AFC Defensive Player of the Week for Week 6. He returned a fumble for a touchdown, had an interception and seven tackles vs. the Chargers. Pittsburgh has lost defensive end Stephon Tuitt to a season-ending torn pectoral muscle suffered in L.A. Linebacker Devin Bush, who returned a fumble for a touchdown in Week 6, leads all rookies in tackles (52) and has recorded an interception in back-to-back games.
I can’t lay this many points with a backup quarterback who isn’t very good, despite how bad the Dolphins are. Miami covered a big spread against a better team in Buffalo last week, and should be able to keep this one somewhat close.
Pick: Dolphins +14 (More Week 8 Free Picks)
Dolphins are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.
Dolphins are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Dolphins are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Dolphins are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Dolphins are 7-24-1 ATS in their last 32 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Dolphins are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
Dolphins are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 8.
Dolphins are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Dolphins are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games.
Dolphins are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Dolphins are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC.
Dolphins are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 Monday games.
Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.
Steelers are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.
Steelers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win.
Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Monday games.
Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Steelers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Steelers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 8.
Steelers are 50-24-2 ATS in their last 76 games in October.
Steelers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Steelers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a bye week.
Over is 4-0 in Dolphins last 4 games following a ATS win.
Under is 4-1 in Dolphins last 5 games overall.
Under is 4-1 in Dolphins last 5 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Dolphins last 5 games in October.
Under is 4-1 in Dolphins last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Dolphins last 5 games on grass.
Under is 8-2 in Dolphins last 10 games following a straight up loss.
Under is 13-4 in Dolphins last 17 games in Week 8.
Under is 6-2 in Dolphins last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 8-3 in Dolphins last 11 Monday games.
Under is 6-1 in Steelers last 7 vs. AFC.
Under is 9-2 in Steelers last 11 games in Week 8.
Under is 6-2 in Steelers last 8 games on grass.
Under is 20-7 in Steelers last 27 games in October.
Under is 19-7 in Steelers last 26 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 13-5 in Steelers last 18 home games.
Under is 5-2 in Steelers last 7 games overall.
Over is 15-6 in Steelers last 21 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 7-3 in Steelers last 10 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 36-16 in Steelers last 52 vs. a team with a losing record.
