Dolphins vs Bills Preview & Free Pick [December 17th 2022]

Miami (8-5) at Buffalo (10-3)
When: Saturday, December 17th 2022
Where: Highmark Stadium,
Orchard Park, NY
Time: 8:15 ET | TV: NFLN
Opening Odds: Buffalo -7.5/48

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The Miami Dolphins will look to stay in the AFC East race with a season sweep over the Buffalo Bills on Saturday night. The Dolphins and Bills will be playing in less than ideal conditions in Orchard Park, with the temperatures expected in the 20’s with snow in the forecast. In the first meeting back in Week 3, the temperature was 89 degrees and the Dolphins somehow pulled off the 21-19 upset. The Bills outgained Miami 497-212 and Josh Allen threw for 400 yards. Right now, the Dolphins trail Buffalo by two games in the division, so a win on Saturday would give Miami the tiebreaker if they can make up one more game in the final three weeks. Despite the Miami win earlier this season, it’s been all Bills in the series. Buffalo has won eight of last 10 meetings, including the last five played at Buffalo. In those last 10 matchups, Miami is averaging just over 18 points. The total has gone under in nine of Buffalos last games, while the under has cashed in nine of Miami’s last 13 against divisional opponents. The total for this one is 44.

Buffalo rides a four-game winning streak into Saturday night’s contest after a hard-fought 20-12 win at home over the pesky New York Jets. Although they didn’t cover the spread, Buffalo kept themselves in great position to claim the No. 1 seed in this year’s postseason. The Bills struggled offensively last Sunday, totaling a season-low 232 yards. Allen passed for a season-worst 147 yards and hasn’t topped 300 yards during the four-game winning streak. Miami meanwhile, has dropped their first two games of a three-game trek. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa completed just 45.9 percent of his passes in those setbacks – 33-17 to the San Francisco 49ers and 23-17 to the Los Angeles Chargers. Miami is currently the sixth-seed in the AFC if the playoffs were to start today.

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The Dolphins are probably glad to be leaving the state of California after two ugly offensive showings against the Chargers and 49ers. For the second straight game the Dolphins scored 17 points, with Tagovailoa completing just 10 of 28 pass attempts for 145 yards in the latest game. Miami also had 219 yards of offense in the loss, 60 of which came on a Tyreek Hill touchdown reception. Hill injured his ankle and was limited in practice this week. Still, Miami has a top 10 offense with 24.3 points per game (ninth) and 367.8 yards per game (seventh). In the first meeting with Buffalo, Tagovailoa went 13-of-18 for 186 yards passing and a touchdown, but was playing through an injury. Defensively, the Dolphins sacked Allen four times in the first meeting and had four sacks versus the Chargers. The Dolphins are 9-4-1 against the spread in their last 14 games vs. AFC East teams.

The Bills had issues against the Jets defense last week, but still came out with a 20-12 victory. Allen wasn’t great passing the ball but did run for 47 yards. Buffalo has scored at least 24 points in three of its last four games and scoring 20 against a Jets team that has a stout defense isn’t bad, especially with the weather conditions. Outside linebacker Matt Milano (knee), who has 12 tackles for loss, missed practice Tuesday, as did nose tackle Jordan Phillips (shoulder) and guard Ryan Bates (ankle). Star nose tackle Ed Oliver (pectoral) and fullback Reggie Gilliam (ankle) were limited. Buffalo is fourth in scoring offense (27.2) and second in scoring defense (17.0). The Bills will play at Chicago next week before a trip to Cincinnati.

I’m inclined to take the points in this one. Despite their recent struggles, this Miami offense is dangerous with Tua and his talented receivers. With bad weather conditions expected, I can see a low-scoring contest that will keep Miami in it.

Week 15 NFL Staff Selections

Pick: Dolphins +7.5

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