Dodgers vs Cubs Preview, Trends, & Free Pick [NLCS Game 5]

LA Dodgers (3-1) at Chicago Cubs (1-3)
When: Thursday, October 19th 2017
Where: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
Time: 8:05 ET | TV: TBS
Opening Odds: Los Angeles -146

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The Chicago Cubs have lived to see another day after their thrilling 3-2 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers on Wednesday night, and can shift the series back to California with a win in Game 5 on Thursday. Chicago has now won five straight games when their backs were against the wall dating to last year’s World Series. Javier Baez homered twice and Willson Contreras also went deep in support of Jake Arrieta as Chicago held on for the 3-2 win, handing the Dodgers their first loss of the postseason. Los Angeles had not trailed after the fifth inning in any of its previous six playoff games this year. If the Cubs are going to live another day, someone other than Wade Davis will have to close out Game 5, as the right-hander recorded six outs on Wednesday for his second multi-inning save of the postseason and threw almost 50 pitches. Davis is the first pitcher to record multiple saves of two or more innings in the same postseason since he accomplished the feat in 2015 with Kansas City. Dodgers relievers have pitched 20 consecutive scoreless innings and given up only three hits in the series.

Pitchers: Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw (1-0, 4.76 ERA) | Cubs – Jose Quintana (0-0, 1.59)

The Dodgers were hoping to give their ace some extra days rest heading into the World Series, but instead, Clayton Kershaw will try and secure that bid on Thursday. He is 5-7 with a 4.57 ERA in 20 career games (16 starts) in the postseason and split two starts against the Cubs in last year’s NLCS. He allowed two runs over five innings in a no-decision in Game 1 of this year’s series. Surprisingly, the ace has started only one series-clincher, throwing six scoreless innings to beat Atlanta in the 2013 NL Division Series.

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Jose Quintana has been terrific in his first postseason, allowing three runs – two earned – over 11.1 innings in two starts and a relief appearance. He gave up two runs and two hits over five innings in Game 1 and ended up with a no-decision. Quintana went 5-0 with a 4.76 ERA in eight starts at Wrigley Field during the regular season.

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The Cubs are still having a tough time generating offense as all seven of their runs this series have come via the home run. I expect Kershaw to be on his game tonight and for the Dodgers to get to the Cubs’ bullpen early and put this series away.

Pick: Dodgers -151

BETTING TRENDS:

• Dodgers are 8-1 in their last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.
• Dodgers are 6-1 in their last 7 playoff games.
• Dodgers are 13-3 in their last 16 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
• Dodgers are 4-1 in their last 5 road games.
• Dodgers are 4-1 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Dodgers are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
• Dodgers are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Dodgers are 25-8 in their last 33 vs. National League Central.
• Dodgers are 12-5 in their last 17 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
• Dodgers are 36-15 in their last 51 games vs. a left-handed starter.
• Dodgers are 7-3 in their last 10 Thursday games.
• Dodgers are 75-34 in their last 109 overall.
• Dodgers are 75-34 in their last 109 games on grass.
• Dodgers are 5-17 in their last 22 games following a loss.
• Dodgers are 2-9 in their last 11 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Dodgers are 2-11 in their last 13 League Championship road games.
• Dodgers are 4-0 in Kershaw’s last 4 starts vs. National League Central.
• Dodgers are 46-9 in Kershaw’s last 55 starts.
• Dodgers are 45-9 in Kershaw’s last 54 starts on grass.
• Dodgers are 10-2 in Kershaw’s last 12 Thursday starts.
• Dodgers are 46-10 in Kershaw’s last 56 starts with 4 days of rest.
• Dodgers are 48-14 in Kershaw’s last 62 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
• Dodgers are 42-14 in Kershaw’s last 56 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Dodgers are 23-8 in Kershaw’s last 31 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
• Dodgers are 39-15 in Kershaw’s last 54 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Dodgers are 39-16 in Kershaw’s last 55 road starts.

• Cubs are 19-7 in their last 26 home games.
• Cubs are 36-14 in their last 51 Thursday games.
• Cubs are 18-8 in their last 26 games on grass.
• Cubs are 17-8 in their last 25 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Cubs are 19-9 in their last 28 overall.
• Cubs are 39-19 in their last 58 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
• Cubs are 8-18 in their last 26 vs. National League West.
• Cubs are 5-12 in their last 17 League Championship games.
• Cubs are 4-11 in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
• Cubs are 2-7 in their last 9 games vs. a left-handed starter.
• Cubs are 1-4 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Cubs are 0-4 in their last 4 games following a win.
• Cubs are 4-0 in Quintana’s last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
• Cubs are 7-0 in Quintana’s last 7 home starts.
• Cubs are 5-0 in Quintana’s last 5 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Cubs are 4-0 in Quintana’s last 4 starts with 4 days of rest.
• Cubs are 7-1 in Quintana’s last 8 starts.
• Cubs are 7-1 in Quintana’s last 8 starts on grass.

• Under is 4-0 in Dodgers last 4 League Championship road games.
• Under is 6-0 in Dodgers last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
• Under is 6-0-1 in Dodgers last 7 road games.
• Under is 4-0-1 in Dodgers last 5 on grass.
• Under is 4-0-1 in Dodgers last 5 League Championship games.
• Under is 4-0-1 in Dodgers last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
• Under is 4-0-1 in Dodgers last 5 overall.
• Under is 4-0-1 in Dodgers last 5 playoff games.
• Under is 5-0 in Dodgers last 5 playoff road games.
• Under is 8-0-1 in Dodgers last 9 vs. National League Central.
• Under is 6-0 in Dodgers last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Under is 4-1 in Dodgers last 5 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Under is 18-6-2 in Dodgers last 26 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
• Over is 21-7-4 in Dodgers last 32 Thursday games.
• Over is 8-3-1 in Dodgers last 12 games following a loss.
• Under is 4-1 in Kershaw’s last 5 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Under is 20-6-2 in Kershaw’s last 28 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
• Under is 3-1-1 in Kershaw’s last 5 starts on grass.
• Under is 3-1-1 in Kershaw’s last 5 starts overall.
• Under is 19-7-2 in Kershaw’s last 28 starts vs. National League Central.
• Under is 18-7-1 in Kershaw’s last 26 road starts.
• Under is 7-3 in Kershaw’s last 10 Thursday starts.
• Under is 37-16-3 in Kershaw’s last 56 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
• Under is 18-8-1 in Kershaw’s last 27 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.

• Under is 5-0-1 in Cubs last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
• Under is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 on grass.
• Under is 5-0 in Cubs last 5 playoff home games.
• Under is 5-0 in Cubs last 5 home games.
• Under is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 League Championship home games.
• Under is 4-0-1 in Cubs last 5 League Championship games.
• Under is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 overall.
• Under is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Under is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 playoff games.
• Over is 9-3-2 in Cubs last 14 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
• Under is 15-5-1 in Cubs last 21 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
• Under is 33-14-5 in Cubs last 52 vs. National League West.
• Under is 3-0-1 in Quintana’s last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
• Under is 4-1 in Quintana’s last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
• Under is 3-1-1 in Quintana’s last 5 starts on grass.
• Over is 3-1-1 in Quintana’s last 5 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Under is 3-1-1 in Quintana’s last 5 starts overall.

• Dodgers are 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
• Under is 9-2-1 in Kershaw’s last 12 starts vs. Cubs.
• Dodgers are 4-1 in Kershaw’s last 5 starts vs. Cubs.
• Under is 4-1 in Kershaw’s last 5 road starts vs. Cubs.
• Under is 19-7 in the last 26 meetings in Chicago.
• Under is 34-16-3 in the last 53 meetings.
• Dodgers are 3-7 in the last 10 meetings in Chicago.

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