Chicago Cubs (16-14) at St Louis (19-12)
When: Sunday, May 6th 2018
Where: Busch Stadium, St Louis, MO
Time: 8:05 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: St Louis -120/8.5
The St. Louis Cardinals will look to make it a clean-sweep of both Chicago teams when they host the Cubs on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball. The Cardinals swept a two-game interleague set with the White Sox earlier in the week and are going for their fifth-straight win on Sunday when they host their bitter rivals. St. Louis posted three-straight 3-2 victories before needing a rally and extra innings to take down the Cubs on Saturday. St. Louis trailed 4-0 before rallying for an 8-6 win on Kolten Wong’s walk-off homer in the 10th inning Saturday – the Cardinals’ eighth comeback win of the season. The victory didn’t come without a cost, however, as outfielder Tommy Pham (groin), catcher Yadier Molina (groin) and closer Bud Norris (triceps) all suffered injuries after reliever Dominic Leone (biceps) left Friday’s game and is expected to hit the disabled list. The Cubs offense scored more than three runs for the first time in nine games, but failed to hold a ninth inning lead when St. Louis tied it on Marcell Ozuna’s two-run double to send it to extras. Chicago has not lost four-straight games and have allowed St. Louis to overtake Milwaukee atop the NL Central. Cubs’ third baseman Kris Bryant extended his hitting streak to five games on Saturday, but is just 5-for-21 during that stretch. First baseman Antony Rizzo has homered in three of his last four games. The Cardinals have homered in four straight games after going deep just once in their previous four games.
Pitchers: Cubs – Jon Lester (2-1, 2.73 ERA) | Cardinals – Michael Wacha (4-1, 3.62)
Jon Lester received eight or more runs of support in his first four starts, but the Cubs have scored four total runs in his last two outings. The latest was a 3-2 loss versus Colorado on Monday in which Lester allowed two runs (no earned) in 5.2 innings of work. Three of Lester’s six starts have resulted in zero earned runs for the veteran lefty. Lester beat the Cardinals on April 19th, allowing one unearned run and two hits in six innings, and is 6-4 with a 2.16 ERA in 15 career meetings.
Michael Wacha is on a roll, winning his last four decisions, and the Cardinals have won his last five starts. Wacha pitched well Tuesday against the White Sox, allowing two runs and five hits over five innings in a no-decision. He missed the Cubs in the last series, and is 4-7 with a 6.41 ERA in 16 career games (14 starts) against them, including an 0-3 mark last season.
The pitching matchup definitely favors the Cubs in this one, but their offense has been really bad and St. Louis is on a roll right now. They would love nothing more than to sweep their rivals. Wacha has pitched well this season and should have a better result than he’s had in the past against Chicago. Take the home team.
Pick: Cardinals -115
BETTING TRENDS:
- Cubs are 31-10 in their last 41 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Cubs are 6-2 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Cubs are 5-2 in their last 7 vs. National League Central.
- Cubs are 5-2 in their last 7 during game 3 of a series.
- Cubs are 41-18 in their last 59 games following a loss.
- Cubs are 4-9 in their last 13 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Cubs are 2-6 in their last 8 games after losing the first 2 games of a series.
- Cubs are 1-5 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Cubs are 0-4 in their last 4 overall.
- Cubs are 0-4 in their last 4 games on grass.
- Cubs are 6-0 in Lester’s last 6 starts vs. National League Central.
- Cubs are 5-1 in Lester’s last 6 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Cubs are 4-1 in Lester’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Cubs are 4-1 in Lester’s last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Cubs are 22-8 in Lester’s last 30 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Cubs are 5-2 in Lester’s last 7 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Cubs are 40-18 in Lester’s last 58 starts on grass.
- Cubs are 40-19 in Lester’s last 59 starts.
- Cubs are 0-7 in Lester’s last 7 Sunday starts.
- Cardinals are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Cardinals are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
- Cardinals are 4-0 in their last 4 games on grass.
- Cardinals are 6-0 in their last 6 home games.
- Cardinals are 13-3 in their last 16 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Cardinals are 4-1 in their last 5 games following a win.
- Cardinals are 8-2 in their last 10 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Cardinals are 6-2 in their last 8 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Cardinals are 6-2 in their last 8 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Cardinals are 10-4 in their last 14 vs. National League Central.
- Cardinals are 5-2 in their last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Cardinals are 5-0 in Wacha’s last 5 starts.
- Cardinals are 5-0 in Wacha’s last 5 starts on grass.
- Cardinals are 4-1 in Wacha’s last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Cardinals are 4-1 in Wacha’s last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Cardinals are 10-4 in Wacha’s last 14 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Cardinals are 39-19 in Wacha’s last 58 home starts.
- Cardinals are 2-5 in Wacha’s last 7 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Cardinals are 1-7 in Wacha’s last 8 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 6-1 in Cubs last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 5-1 in Cubs last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Under is 5-1 in Cubs last 6 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 8-2 in Cubs last 10 overall.
- Under is 8-2 in Cubs last 10 on grass.
- Under is 14-4-3 in Cubs last 21 Sunday games.
- Under is 7-2 in Cubs last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 16-6 in Cubs last 22 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 8-3 in Cubs last 11 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 5-2 in Cubs last 7 games following a loss.
- Under is 12-5 in Cubs last 17 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 7-1 in Lester’s last 8 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 6-1 in Lester’s last 7 starts vs. National League Central.
- Over is 5-1 in Lester’s last 6 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Lester’s last 5 Sunday starts.
- Over is 11-4 in Lester’s last 15 starts overall.
- Over is 5-2 in Lester’s last 7 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 10-4 in Lester’s last 14 starts on grass.
- Under is 5-2 in Lester’s last 7 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Cardinals last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 8-1 in Cardinals last 9 Sunday games.
- Under is 11-2-3 in Cardinals last 16 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Cardinals last 6 overall.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Cardinals last 6 on grass.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Cardinals last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 16-4-1 in Cardinals last 21 during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Cardinals last 5 home games.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Cardinals last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 5-2-2 in Cardinals last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Wacha’s last 9 Sunday starts.
- Under is 5-1 in Wacha’s last 6 starts vs. National League Central.
- Under is 4-1 in Wacha’s last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 6-2 in Wacha’s last 8 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Under is 6-2 in Wacha’s last 8 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 20-7-1 in Wacha’s last 28 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 10-4-1 in Wacha’s last 15 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 25-10-1 in Wacha’s last 36 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Cubs are 4-0 in Lester’s last 4 starts vs. Cardinals.
- Over is 6-1 in Wacha’s last 7 home starts vs. Cubs.
- Over is 9-2-1 in Wacha’s last 12 starts vs. Cubs.
- Under is 8-3-2 in Lester’s last 13 starts vs. Cardinals.
- Cubs are 12-5 in the last 17 meetings.
- Cardinals are 0-4 in Wacha’s last 4 starts vs. Cubs.
