Cubs vs Cardinals Betting Odds, Trends, & Free Pick [4/2/17]

By
Jay Cooper
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Chicago Cubs (0-0) at St Louis (0-0)
When: Sunday, April 2nd 2017
Where: Busch Stadium, St Louis, MO
Time: 8:35 ET | TV: ESPN

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For the first time in 109 years, the Chicago Cubs will begin the season as World Champions and they will get started on a repeat when they visit their bitter rival, the St. Louis Cardinals. For years, the Cards have dominated the division and given the Cubs fits, but now it’s St. Louis’ turn to dethrone the defending Central Division champs. A new layer was added to the rivalry in the offseason, with Dexter Fowler – a key player in the Cubs’ run to their first World Series title in 108 years – signing a five-year deal with St. Louis over the winter. It’s the second straight year that a high-profile free agent has switched sides in this rivalry, as Jason Heyward left the Cardinals to sign with Chicago prior to the 2016 season. Cubs manager Joe Maddon has turned to an unexpected source to fill Fowler’s leadoff spot as he will use slugger Kyle Schwarber to set the table for a lineup that includes stars Anthony Rizzo and reigning NL MVP Kris Bryant, among others. Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina reportedly are working to finalize a three-year contract extension worth between $55-65 million. Since 2011, St. Louis is 458-322 when Molina starts and 93-99 when he does not.

Pitchers: Cubs – Jon Lester (2016: 19-5, 2.44 ERA) | Cardinals – Carlos Martinez (2016: 16-9, 3.04)

Jon Lester will make his second Opening Day start for the Cubs as he looks to keep the momentum going from his terrific 2016 campaign. The veteran finished second in the NL Cy Young Award voting and was the MVP of the NL Championship Series against the Dodgers. Lester is 3-3 with a 1.97 ERA in nine career starts against St. Louis and dominated them last season by going 2-0 and allowing two earned runs over 20.2 innings in three starts. First baseman Matt Carpenter has struggled against Lester, going 5-for-33 with eight strikeouts.

Carlos Martinez will get the nod for St. Louis as the young righty saw his strikeout rate drop from 9.2 per nine innings in 2015 to eight last season. The Dominican product still posted 20 quality starts and won a career-best 16 games. Martinez will be the youngest Opening Day starter for St. Louis since Joe Magrane in 1989. The Cubs have had success against Martinez, who is 3-3 with a 4.67 ERA in 19 games (nine starts) versus Chicago. Bryant is just 3-for-19 with eight strikeouts against Martinez, but Heyward is 7-for-17 and Rizzo 7-for-26 with three homers.

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I think the Cardinals are going to want to set the tone early for this season series and are now playing second-fiddle to this Cubs team. Chicago will win the Central this year, but St. Louis will give them a few losses. I think this is one of them.

Pick: Cardinals +110

W/L TRENDS

Chi. Cubs
  • Cubs are 5-1 in their last 6 road games.
  • Cubs are 40-13 in their last 53 during game 1 of a series.
  • Cubs are 46-15 in their last 62 games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Cubs are 20-7 in their last 27 games following an off day.
  • Cubs are 18-7 in their last 26 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Cubs are 5-2 in their last 7 Sunday games.
  • Cubs are 61-26 in their last 88 vs. National League Central.
  • Cubs are 55-24 in their last 80 overall.
  • Cubs are 55-24 in their last 80 games on grass.
  • Cubs are 14-3 in Lesters last 17 starts during game 1 of a series.
  • Cubs are 20-8 in Lesters last 28 starts vs. National League Central.
  • Cubs are 35-16 in Lesters last 51 starts.
  • Cubs are 35-16 in Lesters last 51 starts on grass.
St. Louis
  • Cardinals are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. National League Central.
  • Cardinals are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
  • Cardinals are 4-0 in their last 4 games on grass.
  • Cardinals are 4-0 in their last 4 home games.
  • Cardinals are 2-5 in their last 7 during game 1 of a series.
  • Cardinals are 7-19 in their last 26 games following an off day.
  • Cardinals are 3-11 in their last 14 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
  • Cardinals are 0-7 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
  • Cardinals are 4-1 in Martinezs last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
  • Cardinals are 7-2 in Martinezs last 9 starts.
  • Cardinals are 7-2 in Martinezs last 9 starts on grass.
  • Cardinals are 20-9 in Martinezs last 29 starts vs. National League Central.

OU TRENDS

Chi. Cubs
  • Over is 6-1 in Cubs last 7 vs. National League Central.
  • Under is 4-1 in Cubs last 5 games following an off day.
  • Under is 4-1 in Cubs last 5 Sunday games.
  • Over is 12-4 in Cubs last 16 road games.
  • Over is 9-3 in Cubs last 12 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Under is 14-6 in Cubs last 20 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
  • Under is 4-0 in Lesters last 4 starts during game 1 of a series.
  • Under is 5-1 in Lesters last 6 starts vs. National League Central.
  • Under is 12-3 in Lesters last 15 starts on grass.
  • Under is 12-3 in Lesters last 15 starts overall.
  • Under is 8-3-1 in Lesters last 12 Sunday starts.
  • Under is 5-2 in Lesters last 7 road starts.
St. Louis
  • Under is 5-1 in Cardinals last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
  • Over is 8-2 in Cardinals last 10 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
  • Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 overall.
  • Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 on grass.
  • Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 Sunday games.
  • Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 home games.
  • Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 vs. National League Central.
  • Under is 6-0 in Martinezs last 6 starts on grass.
  • Under is 6-0 in Martinezs last 6 starts overall.
  • Under is 7-1 in Martinezs last 8 starts during game 1 of a series.
  • Under is 7-2 in Martinezs last 9 home starts.
  • Under is 15-5-4 in Martinezs last 24 starts vs. National League Central.

HEAD TO HEAD

  • Under is 6-0-1 in Lesters last 7 starts vs. Cardinals.
  • Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
  • Cubs are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in St. Louis.
  • Under is 5-2-1 in Martinezs last 8 starts vs. Cubs.
  • Cardinals are 0-4 in Martinezs last 4 starts vs. Cubs.

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