Cubs vs Brewers Preview, Odds, Trends, & Free Pick [9/22/17]

Chicago Cubs (85-67) at Milwaukee (81-72)
When: Friday, September 22nd 2017
Where: Miller Park, Milwaukee, WI
Time: 7:35 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Chicago -128/9

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The Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs battled in a thriller last night in what was a playoff-like atmosphere in Miller Park as the Cubs came back to beat Milwaukee in the opener of their four-game series. Lots of Cubs fans were in attendance to see Javier Baez’s tying single with two outs in the ninth inning and Kris Bryant’s two-run homer in the 10th to lift the Cubs to a 5-3 win. Chicago now holds a 4.5-game division lead over the Brewers. Milwaukee swept three games at Wrigley Field from September 8-10 to pull within two games in the NL Central race, but the Cubs have won eight of nine since. The Brewers’ postseason hopes are still alive however, as they are only 1.5 games behind Colorado for the second NL wild card. Milwaukee has lost consecutive games in heartbreaking fashion after giving up the tying run in the eighth and a two-run homer in the ninth in Wednesday’s 6-4 loss to Pittsburgh. Brewers OF Domingo Santana is 14-for-37 with four home runs and 11 RBIs during his nine-game hitting streak, while the Cubs’ Kyle Schwarber has homered in three consecutive starts.

Pitchers: Cubs – John Lackey (11-11, 4.62 ERA) | Brewers – Brandon Woodruff (2-2, 3.28)

John Lackey should be well-rested for Friday’s contest as he lasted only 4.2 innings against St. Louis before getting ejected. Lackey reeled off five-straight victories after the All-Star Break, but has won just one of his last six starts. Lackey is 6-4 with a 3.39 ERA in 14 career starts against the Brewers.

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Brandon Woodruff has been a pleasant surprise to the rotation since he call-up on August 4th, posting three quality starts. One of those came in his last outing against the Miami Marlins in which he allowed three runs over seven innings of a victory. Woodruff is 1-2 with a 4.38 ERA in four starts at Miller Park.

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The Cubs are pulling away in the division, but the Brewers still have a lot to play for. Milwaukee has suffered back-to-back tough losses, but I think they regroup and get to a struggling Lackey tonight and even the series.

Pick: Brewers +107

BETTING TRENDS:

  • Cubs are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. National League Central.
  • Cubs are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Cubs are 5-0 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Cubs are 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Cubs are 7-0 in their last 7 games on grass.
  • Cubs are 8-1 in their last 9 overall.
  • Cubs are 5-1 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Cubs are 4-1 in their last 5 road games.
  • Cubs are 16-5 in their last 21 games following a win.
  • Cubs are 12-4 in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Cubs are 19-7 in their last 26 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Cubs are 7-3 in their last 10 during game 2 of a series.
  • Cubs are 35-16 in their last 51 games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Cubs are 5-0 in Lackey’s last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
  • Cubs are 7-1 in Lackey’s last 8 starts vs. National League Central.
  • Cubs are 5-1 in Lackey’s last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Cubs are 10-2 in Lackey’s last 12 starts.
  • Cubs are 10-2 in Lackey’s last 12 starts on grass.
  • Cubs are 4-1 in Lackey’s last 5 road starts.
  • Cubs are 4-1 in Lackey’s last 5 starts with 6 days of rest.
  • Cubs are 7-2 in Lackey’s last 9 Friday starts.
  • Cubs are 6-2 in Lackey’s last 8 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Brewers are 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Brewers are 10-2 in their last 12 during game 2 of a series.
  • Brewers are 9-2 in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Brewers are 9-3 in their last 12 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Brewers are 10-4 in their last 14 home games.
  • Brewers are 7-3 in their last 10 vs. National League Central.
  • Brewers are 7-3 in their last 10 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Brewers are 9-4 in their last 13 games following a loss.
  • Brewers are 9-4 in their last 13 overall.
  • Brewers are 9-4 in their last 13 games on grass.
  • Under is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Under is 4-1 in Cubs last 5 overall.
  • Under is 4-1 in Cubs last 5 vs. National League Central.
  • Under is 4-1 in Cubs last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Under is 15-5-1 in Cubs last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Under is 8-3-1 in Cubs last 12 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Under is 24-9-1 in Cubs last 34 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Over is 10-3-2 in Lackey’s last 15 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Over is 3-1-1 in Lackey’s last 5 starts with 6 days of rest.
  • Under is 5-2-1 in Lackey’s last 8 Friday starts.
  • Over is 5-2-1 in Lackey’s last 8 starts on grass.
  • Under is 5-2-1 in Lackey’s last 8 starts during game 2 of a series.
  • Over is 5-2-1 in Lackey’s last 8 starts overall.
  • Over is 5-2 in Lackey’s last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Over is 10-4-1 in Lackey’s last 15 starts vs. National League Central.
  • Under is 7-3-1 in Lackey’s last 11 road starts.
  • Over is 9-4-2 in Lackey’s last 15 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Under is 9-1-1 in Brewers last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Under is 6-1-1 in Brewers last 8 home games.
  • Under is 21-4-1 in Brewers last 26 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Under is 5-1 in Brewers last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Under is 4-1 in Brewers last 5 Friday games.
  • Under is 4-1 in Brewers last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Under is 39-12-2 in Brewers last 53 games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Under is 6-2 in Brewers last 8 vs. National League Central.
  • Under is 41-17-3 in Brewers last 61 overall.
  • Under is 34-15-2 in Brewers last 51 games following a loss.
  • Under is 38-17-3 in Brewers last 58 on grass.
  • Under is 43-21-3 in Brewers last 67 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Under is 5-1 in Woodruff’s last 6 starts overall.
  • Under is 4-1 in Woodruff’s last 5 starts on grass.
  • Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
  • Cubs are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Milwaukee.
  • Under is 4-1-1 in Lackey’s last 6 starts vs. Brewers.
  • Under is 19-7-2 in the last 28 meetings in Milwaukee.

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