Chicago Cubs (37-25) at Milwaukee (39-26)
When: Monday, June 11th 2018
Where: Miller Park, Milwaukee, WI
Time: 8:10 ET | TV: MLB Network
Opening Odds: Chicago -117/8.5
The Chicago Cubs have been chasing the Milwaukee Brewers for most the season, and will get a chance to pass them when they begin a three-game series at Miller Park on Monday night. Milwaukee has dropped seven of the eight meetings this season with Chicago, but still hold a slim half-game lead in the National League Central heading into this week’s action. The Cubs had a four-game winning streak halted on Sunday, but have won 11 of 14 to get back in the division race. The Brewers lost four of five before winning two out of three at Philadelphia over the weekend and could get slugger Eric Thames, who has been on the disabled list since April 25 with a torn ligament in his left thumb, back as soon as Monday to help the middle of the lineup. The Cubs are still dealing with a short-handed pitching rotation, as manager Joe Maddon told reporters Sunday there is no timetable for right-hander Yu Darvish’s return and it is unclear whether he will pitch before the All-Star break. Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo has driven in a run in six straight games, the longest streak by a Cub since Moises Alou (10) in 2004.
Pitchers: Cubs – Jose Quintana (6-4, 4.20 ERA) | Brewers – Junior Guerra (3-4, 2.83)
Jose Quintana will look to be a little more consistent the rest of the season, and he’s coming off two strong outings in a row. Quintana recorded a season-high 10 strikeouts Wednesday against Philadelphia, allowing two runs and three hits over 5.2 innings in a no-decision. He not only has been dominant against the Brewers – 4-1 with a 0.63 ERA in six meetings – but has a 2.62 ERA on the road this season.
Like Quintana, Junior Guerra is starting to find his groove with quality starts in four of his last five outings. Guerra allowed three runs over six innings in a loss at Cleveland last time out, however. He is 1-1 with a 1.80 ERA in seven games (four starts) against the Cubs, but took the loss on April 28th at Chicago despite giving up one run and three hits over six innings – a game the Cubs won 3-0.
The Brewers have been playing better baseball overall this season than the Cubs, but are having trouble beating Milwaukee. The Cubs bring a lot of fans up to Miller Park – dubbing it Wrigley North – and a lot of confidence right now. I’ll give the edge to Quintana here since he’s been so good on the road and Chicago is 18-12 away from home.
Pick: Cubs -125
BETTING TRENDS:
- Cubs are 4-0 in their last 4 road games.
- Cubs are 8-2 in their last 10 overall.
- Cubs are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Cubs are 8-2 in their last 10 games on grass.
- Cubs are 6-2 in their last 8 vs. National League Central.
- Cubs are 40-14 in their last 54 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Cubs are 20-8 in their last 28 during game 1 of a series.
- Cubs are 5-2 in their last 7 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Cubs are 5-2 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Cubs are 36-15 in their last 51 Monday games.
- Cubs are 49-21 in their last 70 games following a loss.
- Cubs are 0-4 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Cubs are 9-1 in Quintana’s last 10 starts vs. National League Central.
- Cubs are 6-1 in Quintana’s last 7 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Cubs are 4-1 in Quintana’s last 5 road starts.
- Cubs are 6-2 in Quintana’s last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Cubs are 8-3 in Quintana’s last 11 starts.
- Cubs are 8-3 in Quintana’s last 11 starts on grass.
- Cubs are 7-3 in Quintana’s last 10 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 Monday games.
- Brewers are 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Brewers are 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Brewers are 16-5 in their last 21 home games.
- Brewers are 22-8 in their last 30 games following a loss.
- Brewers are 7-3 in their last 10 during game 1 of a series.
- Brewers are 11-5 in their last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Brewers are 1-5 in their last 6 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
- Brewers are 1-5 in their last 6 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Brewers are 3-8 in Guerra’s last 11 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Brewers are 1-4 in Guerra’s last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Brewers are 0-9 in Guerra’s last 9 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Brewers are 0-4 in Guerra’s last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 overall.
- Under is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 on grass.
- Under is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 5-0 in Cubs last 5 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Cubs last 7 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Cubs last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-2 in Cubs last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Under is 5-2-2 in Cubs last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Under is 12-5-2 in Cubs last 19 Monday games.
- Under is 34-15-2 in Cubs last 51 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Quintana’s last 7 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-1 in Quintana’s last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 7-2-1 in Quintana’s last 10 road starts.
- Under is 6-2 in Quintana’s last 8 starts vs. National League Central.
- Over is 5-2 in Quintana’s last 7 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Over is 5-2 in Quintana’s last 7 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 6-1 in Brewers last 7 Monday games.
- Under is 10-2-2 in Brewers last 14 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 51-16-1 in Brewers last 68 games following a loss.
- Under is 43-14-2 in Brewers last 59 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Brewers last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 18-7-1 in Brewers last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 5-2 in Brewers last 7 overall.
- Under is 5-2 in Brewers last 7 on grass.
- Under is 40-18-3 in Brewers last 61 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 41-19-4 in Brewers last 64 home games.
- Under is 4-0 in Guerra’s last 4 starts on grass.
- Under is 4-0 in Guerra’s last 4 starts overall.
- Over is 8-1 in Guerra’s last 9 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 18-3 in Guerra’s last 21 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in Guerra’s last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 10-2 in Guerra’s last 12 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Guerra’s last 7 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Guerra’s last 7 home starts.
- Under is 4-1 in Guerra’s last 5 starts vs. National League Central.
- Under is 16-7 in Guerra’s last 23 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Quintana’s last 4 starts vs. Brewers.
- Cubs are 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Milwaukee.
- Under is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings.
- Cubs are 40-19 in the last 59 meetings.
- Under is 33-16-2 in the last 51 meetings in Milwaukee.
