Chicago Cubs (2-1) at Milwaukee (1-3)
When: Friday, April 7th 2017
Where: Miller Park, Milwaukee, WI
Time: 8:10 ET | TV: CSN Chicago, FSN Wisconsin
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The defending World Series Champions are coming off a series win in St. Louis to kick off the 2017 season and will stay on the road to take on the Milwaukee Brewers for three more before their Wrigley Field debut next week. Kyle Schwarber blasted a three-run, go-ahead home run in the seventh inning to power the Cubs to a 6-4 win in the rubber match of their three-game set at St. Louis. Chicago recorded season highs in hits (10) and runs (six) in the series finale against the Cardinals and will now visit a place that’s been dubbed ‘Wrigley North’ in Miller Park. Chicago was 4-5 there last season after going 8-2 in 2015. Milwaukee closer Neftali Feliz surrendered a solo blast by Colorado’s Nolan Arenado in the ninth that snapped a 1-1 tie as the Brewers dropped three of four to the Rockies this week. The Brewers have blasted five home runs in four games but have also struck out out at least 10 times in three of those games. Brewers OF Kirk Nieuwenhuis hit five of his 13 home runs last season against the Cubs and has hit six in 66 career at-bats versus them. Chicago 3B Kris Bryant, the reigning National League MVP, is 0-for-13 through three games with six strikeouts.
Pitchers: Cubs – Brett Anderson (2016: 1-2, 11.91 ERA) | Brewers – Jimmy Nelson (2016: 8-16, 4.62)
Brett Anderson will make his Chicago Cubs debut after spending the last two seasons with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Anderson was limited to four starts last year after having back surgery in March, but he made 31 starts in 2015 and went 10-9 with a 3.69 ERA. Anderson has faced the Brewers only once, allowing three runs over seven innings in a no-decision in 2015.
Jimmy Nelson makes his 2017 debut after leading the majors with 86 walks and 17 hit batsmen in 2016, but his walk rate was way down this spring as he issued just two free passes in 17.2 innings. Nelson historically has been a first half pitcher, compiling a 3.98 ERA in the first half of a season versus a 4.80 in the second half. Nelson is just 1-6 against the Cubs despite posting a respectable 3.68 ERA in 12 games (10 starts).
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The Cubs are going to be favored in most games they play this season, but that doesn’t mean they will win them all. Anderson should not be trusted until he proves he can stay healthy. Look for a lot of scoring in this one with the Brewers pulling out the victory.
Pick: Brewers +145
W/L TRENDS
| Chi. Cubs |
- Cubs are 5-1 in their last 6 road games.
- Cubs are 21-5 in their last 26 Friday games.
- Cubs are 7-2 in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.
- Cubs are 48-16 in their last 65 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Cubs are 43-15 in their last 58 during game 1 of a series.
- Cubs are 20-8 in their last 29 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Cubs are 63-27 in their last 91 vs. National League Central.
- Cubs are 57-25 in their last 83 overall.
- Cubs are 57-25 in their last 83 games on grass.
- Cubs are 36-16 in their last 52 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Cubs are 64-31 in their last 95 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Cubs are 110-54 in their last 164 games following a win.
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| Milwaukee |
- Brewers are 14-5 in their last 19 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Brewers are 8-3 in their last 11 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Brewers are 6-13 in their last 19 during game 1 of a series.
- Brewers are 16-48 in their last 64 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Brewers are 2-6 in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Brewers are 2-7 in their last 9 Friday games.
- Brewers are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Brewers are 1-4 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Brewers are 1-5 in their last 6 home games.
- Brewers are 2-5 in Nelson’s last 7 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Brewers are 2-5 in Nelson’s last 7 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Brewers are 7-19 in Nelson’s last 26 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Brewers are 2-6 in Nelson’s last 8 starts vs. National League Central.
- Brewers are 5-16 in Nelson’s last 21 starts.
- Brewers are 5-16 in Nelson’s last 21 starts on grass.
- Brewers are 1-4 in Nelson’s last 5 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Brewers are 1-4 in Nelson’s last 5 Friday starts.
- Brewers are 1-5 in Nelson’s last 6 home starts.
- Brewers are 1-7 in Nelson’s last 8 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
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OU TRENDS
| Chi. Cubs |
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 games following a win.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Cubs last 7 Friday games.
- Over is 4-1 in Cubs last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Cubs last 6 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Cubs last 5 overall.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Cubs last 5 road games.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Cubs last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Cubs last 5 on grass.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Cubs last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 9-3-2 in Cubs last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Cubs last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
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| Milwaukee |
- Under is 5-1-1 in Brewers last 7 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Brewers last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 9-2-1 in Brewers last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Brewers last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Brewers last 6 Friday games.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Brewers last 6 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Brewers last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 5-2 in Brewers last 7 overall.
- Under is 5-2 in Brewers last 7 on grass.
- Under is 5-2 in Brewers last 7 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 5-2-1 in Brewers last 8 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 7-3-1 in Brewers last 11 home games.
- Under is 11-5 in Brewers last 16 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 6-1 in Nelson’s last 7 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-1 in Nelson’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 8-2-2 in Nelson’s last 12 home starts.
- Under is 5-2 in Nelson’s last 7 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 7-3 in Nelson’s last 10 starts during game 1 of a series.
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HEAD TO HEAD
- Under is 12-3-2 in the last 17 meetings in Milwaukee.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Nelson’s last 6 starts vs. Cubs.
- Cubs are 23-9 in the last 32 meetings.
- Over is 5-2-1 in the last 8 meetings.
- Cubs are 11-5 in the last 16 meetings in Milwaukee.
- Brewers are 1-6 in Nelson’s last 7 starts vs. Cubs.
- Brewers are 0-5 in Nelson’s last 5 home starts vs. Cubs.
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