Chicago Cubs (2-3) at Milwaukee (4-1)
When: Thursday, April 5th 2018
Where: Miller Park, Milwaukee, WI
Time: 8:10 ET | TV: NBCS Chicago, FS Wisconsin
Opening Odds: Chicago -133/9
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The Chicago Cubs have been hit or miss so far this young season, and right now, they’re missing everything. They will try and jump start the offense when they open a four-game series in Miller Park against the Milwaukee Brewers on Thursday night. Saturday was the last day the Cubs actually scored a run, as they were shutout 6-0 Sunday in Miami, then 1-0 in Cincinnati the next day. Tuesday’s game was rained out and they were off on Wednesday. In Chicago’s two victories, they have scored 18 runs, while just one in their three setbacks, including a 17-inning affair. The Brewers were swinging hot bats as part of their 4-1 start, but were shutout on Wednesday 6-0 by the St. Louis Cardinals in the finale of a three-game series. Milwaukee recorded 19 extra-base hits in its first five games before managing just five singles in the shutout loss. To make matters worse, Milwaukee right fielder Christian Yelich left Wednesday’s game with discomfort in his right oblique and is likely to miss at least the first game of the series. Brewers’ third baseman Travis Shaw has hit safely in each of the team’s first six games, while Chicago’s Anthony Rizzo is hitting just .130 with six strikeouts and is 0-for-8 lifetime against Thursday’s starter Brent Suter.
Pitchers: Cubs – Jon Lester (0-0, 8.10 ERA) | Brewers – Brent Suter (1-0, 5.40)
Lester struggled in his Opening Day start against the Marlins that the Cubs went on to win 8-4. Lester logged 3.1 innings and allowed four runs – three earned – and seven hits. The lefty has historically started each season out slowly, recording a 15-17 record in March and April, but has a winning record in each month after that. Lester is 3-2 with a 2.77 ERA in six career starts against the Brew Crew.
Suter was victorious in his season debut Friday against the lowly San Diego Padres, giving up three runs and five hits over five innings. He has been a better pitcher at home in his career, posting a 4-1 record and 3.23 ERA in 20 games (eight starts) at Miller Park. He’s 1-0 with a 3.14 ERA in six outings (two starts) against the Cubs.
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The Brewers have been pretty good when Suter pitches, winning his last seven starts including five in a row at home. Milwaukee is hitting much better than the Cubs right now despite yesterday’s shutout loss. I think Lester struggles again, and the Brewers take advantage of it.
Pick: Brewers +105
BETTING TRENDS:
- Cubs are 16-5 in their last 21 during game 1 of a series.
- Cubs are 11-4 in their last 15 vs. National League Central.
- Cubs are 37-14 in their last 52 Thursday games.
- Cubs are 37-16 in their last 53 games following an off day.
- Cubs are 3-7 in their last 10 overall.
- Cubs are 3-7 in their last 10 games on grass.
- Cubs are 2-5 in their last 7 road games.
- Cubs are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Cubs are 2-10 in their last 12 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Cubs are 1-11 in their last 12 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Cubs are 4-0 in Lester’s last 4 starts following an outing of less than 4 innings in his last appearance.
- Cubs are 4-1 in Lester’s last 5 starts vs. National League Central.
- Cubs are 4-1 in Lester’s last 5 Thursday starts.
- Cubs are 21-6 in Lester’s last 27 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Cubs are 36-17 in Lester’s last 53 starts on grass.
- Cubs are 2-5 in Lester’s last 7 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Cubs are 1-4 in Lester’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Brewers are 5-1 in their last 6 overall.
- Brewers are 5-1 in their last 6 games on grass.
- Brewers are 8-3 in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Brewers are 20-8 in their last 28 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Brewers are 5-2 in their last 7 during game 1 of a series.
- Brewers are 10-4 in their last 14 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Brewers are 9-20 in their last 29 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Brewers are 5-0 in Suter’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Brewers are 5-0 in Suter’s last 5 starts vs. National League Central.
- Brewers are 5-0 in Suter’s last 5 home starts.
- Brewers are 4-0 in Suter’s last 4 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Brewers are 7-0 in Suter’s last 7 starts.
- Brewers are 7-0 in Suter’s last 7 starts on grass.
- Brewers are 4-1 in Suter’s last 5 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Cubs last 7 games following an off day.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Cubs last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 6-2 in Cubs last 8 Thursday games.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Cubs last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 10-4 in Cubs last 14 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 4-0 in Lester’s last 4 starts vs. National League Central.
- Over is 9-1 in Lester’s last 10 starts overall.
- Over is 8-1 in Lester’s last 9 starts on grass.
- Over is 5-1 in Lester’s last 6 road starts.
- Over is 4-1 in Lester’s last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Lester’s last 5 starts with 6 days of rest.
- Under is 5-2 in Lester’s last 7 starts following an outing of less than 4 innings in his last appearance.
- Over is 5-2 in Lester’s last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 6-0-2 in Brewers last 8 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Brewers last 6 Thursday games.
- Under is 17-5-2 in Brewers last 24 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 9-3 in Brewers last 12 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 5-2 in Brewers last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 25-10-2 in Brewers last 37 home games.
- Under is 50-22-3 in Brewers last 75 overall.
- Under is 47-22-3 in Brewers last 72 on grass.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Suter’s last 7 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Suter’s last 4 home starts.
- Under is 4-0 in Suter’s last 4 starts vs. National League Central.
- Under is 5-1 in Suter’s last 6 starts on grass.
- Under is 5-1 in Suter’s last 6 starts overall.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Suter’s last 5 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 7-3-2 in Suter’s last 12 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
- Cubs are 4-0 in Lester’s last 4 starts vs. Brewers.
- Cubs are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Milwaukee.
- Under is 20-5-2 in the last 27 meetings in Milwaukee.
