Chicago Cubs (22-17) at Atlanta (25-16)
When: Wednesday, May 16th 2018
Where: SunTrust Park, Cumberland, GA
Time: 7:35 ET | TV: WGN, FS Southeast
Opening Odds: Chicago -115/9.5
The Atlanta Braves have dominated their opponents away from home this season (17-8), but are just .500 at SunTrust Park after blowing a ninth inning lead to the Chicago Cubs last night, and will try and rebound with a struggling pitcher taking the hill. Atlanta got a home run in the bottom of the eighth from rookie sensation Ronald Acuna, Jr. to break a 1-1 tie, but the Cubs scored twice in the top of the ninth and secured a 3-2 victory, evening their already entertaining season series at two games a piece. It was the second consecutive one-run game between the National League contenders, as Atlanta won 6-5 in a make-up game at Chicago on Monday. Atlanta is one-game better than second-place Philadelphia in the NL East, while the Cubs are a game back in the Central. Braves 1B Freddie Freeman is 7-for-13 with two doubles against Wednesday starter Tyler Chatwood, while Cubs catcher Willson Contreras is 11-for-22 with nine extra-base hits and 11 RBIs over his past six games.
Pitchers: Cubs – Tyler Chatwood (3-3, 3.35 ERA) | Braves – Brandon McCarthy (4-2, 5.58)
Somehow, Chatwood has respectable ERA and .500 record despite walking an alarming rate of batters this season. He has issued at least five walks in five of his seven starts, which has prevented him from pitching deeper into games. Chatwood has allowed two or fewer runs in five of his seven outings and has won his last three decisions. He is 2-2 with a 5.60 ERA in seven games (five starts) against Atlanta.
Brandon McCarthy is really just looking for an average outing after getting rocked in his last two outings. McCarthy has allowed 23 hits and 14 runs in just 8.1 innings of work covering the last two starts. He allowed two home runs in his last outing at Miami and was charged with six runs and 11 hits over five innings in his second straight loss. McCarthy does have solid numbers against the Cubs, however, going 2-1 with a 1.11 ERA in five games (four starts).
Both of these pitchers have trouble keeping the scoring down in games, as three of Chatwood’s last four starts have gone over the total, while seven of McCarthy’s eight starts this season have seen the over. Chatwood’s ERA is only going to go up if he doesn’t stop walking guys. Atlanta’s offense will find a way to make him pay tonight.
Pick: OVER 9.5 +110
BETTING TRENDS:
- Cubs are 6-1 in their last 7 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Cubs are 12-2 in their last 14 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Cubs are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. National League East.
- Cubs are 8-2 in their last 10 games following a win.
- Cubs are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Cubs are 6-2 in their last 8 overall.
- Cubs are 6-2 in their last 8 games on grass.
- Cubs are 32-11 in their last 43 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Cubs are 9-4 in their last 13 Wednesday games.
- Cubs are 1-4 in their last 5 road games.
- Cubs are 1-5 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Braves are 6-0 in their last 6 Wednesday games.
- Braves are 10-1 in their last 11 during game 3 of a series.
- Braves are 4-1 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Braves are 13-4 in their last 17 games following a loss.
- Braves are 6-2 in their last 8 overall.
- Braves are 10-4 in their last 14 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Braves are 7-3 in their last 10 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Braves are 7-15 in their last 22 vs. National League Central.
- Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Braves are 0-4 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Braves are 0-4 in their last 4 home games.
- Braves are 4-0 in McCarthy’s last 4 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Braves are 4-1 in McCarthy’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 6-1 in Cubs last 7 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 6-1 in Cubs last 7 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Cubs last 5 road games.
- Under is 4-1 in Cubs last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 9-3 in Cubs last 12 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 8-3 in Cubs last 11 games following a win.
- Under is 10-4 in Cubs last 14 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 10-4 in Cubs last 14 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Chatwood’s last 6 starts on grass.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Chatwood’s last 6 starts overall.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Chatwood’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Braves last 4 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 6-1 in Braves last 7 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Braves last 7 Wednesday games.
- Over is 7-2 in Braves last 9 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Over is 5-2 in Braves last 7 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 7-3 in Braves last 10 on grass.
- Under is 9-4 in Braves last 13 games following a loss.
- Over is 5-0 in McCarthy’s last 5 starts on grass.
- Over is 5-0 in McCarthy’s last 5 starts overall.
- Over is 4-1 in McCarthy’s last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in McCarthy’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Cubs are 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in Atlanta.
- Under is 10-3-1 in the last 14 meetings in Atlanta.
- Cubs are 17-6 in the last 23 meetings.
