Dallas (11-6) at LA Rams (13-3)
When: Saturday, January 12th, 2019
Where: L.A. Memorial Coliseum,
Los Angeles, California
Time: 8:15 ET | TV: FOX
Opening Odds: Los Angeles -6.5/48.5
The Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum will be the backdrop Saturday night for an NFC Divisional Playoff matchup between the host Los Angeles Rams and Dallas Cowboys for the right to go to the NFC Championship Game next Sunday. The Rams cruised to an NFC West title this season, becoming the first team to clinch a division, and might have lost some focus after doing so. Well, they turned that around in the final two games of the regular season, cruising to wins over San Francisco and Arizona, while the Cowboys had to fight to the near end. The Rams owned the highest scoring offense in the league in 2017 at 29.9 points per game, improving to 32.9 points this season but finished a distant second to AFC No. 1 seed Kansas City. Star running back Todd Gurley led the NFL in touchdowns with 21 but missed the final two weeks with inflammation in his left knee, but will be ready to go Saturday. Dallas clinched a berth in the postseason in Week 16, then played all-out in a meaningless Week 17 matchup versus the New York Giants. That momentum carried over to the Wild Card game against Seattle, who they beat 24-22 at home. The Cowboys don’t play as well on the road, going 3-5 in 2018. Dallas could host the NFC title game if they win and the Eagles win in New Orleans on Sunday.
Quarterback Dak Prescott threw for a touchdown and ran for another against Seattle, but is listed on the injury report this week after coming up a little lame following a 16-yard run in the fourth quarter last week, but insists he’s fine. Amari Cooper, who was acquired from Detroit during the season, led Dallas last week with seven receptions for 106 yards, but will be challenged this week against cornerback Aqib Talib. Pro Bowl defensive end Demarcus Lawrence, who led the team with 10.5 sacks, leads a Cowboys defense that has been getting better as the season progresses. Dallas would tie Pittsburgh (36) for the most postseason victories all-time with a win on Saturday.
Pro Bowl quarterback Jared Goff (4,688 passing yards, 32 touchdowns) had another solid season despite a rough three-week stretch in which he threw one touchdown and six interceptions in losing two of those contests. His top target, Robert Woods, posted career highs in receptions (86), receiving yards (1,219) and receiving touchdowns (six) while Brandin Cooks had 80 catches for 1,204 yards. Some think the absence of injured receiver Cooper Kupp attributed to Goff’s issues, but the QB responded with five touchdown and no picks over the last two games. Super-stud defensive tackle Aaron Donald received the 2018 Deacon Jones Award after leading the league in sacks (20.5) and could join Hall of Famer Lawrence Taylor (1986) as the only players to record at least 20 sacks and advance to the conference championship in the same season since 1982.
I’ve picked the Cowboys a lot this year – when they’re at home. The road has been a different story for this team. They scored 17 or less in five of their eight road games and now have to go up against Donald and company. The Rams offense should be able to reach 30 points here and cruise to the NFC Championship.
Pick: Rams -7
Betting Trends:
- Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Cowboys are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Cowboys are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC.
- Cowboys are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games on grass.
- Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
- Cowboys are 6-13 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Cowboys are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 playoff road games.
- Cowboys are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games.
- Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff games.
- Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Divisional Playoffs games.
- Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in January.
- Rams are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Rams are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Rams are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Rams are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
- Rams are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff home games.
- Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 playoff games.
- Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in January.
- Rams are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games.
- Rams are 0-4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-0 in Cowboys last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 7-1 in Cowboys last 8 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 6-1 in Cowboys last 7 games on grass.
- Under is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 playoff road games.
- Under is 22-7 in Cowboys last 29 road games.
- Under is 11-4 in Cowboys last 15 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 10-4 in Cowboys last 14 games in January.
- Under is 7-3 in Cowboys last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0 in Rams last 4 Divisional Playoffs games.
- Over is 4-0 in Rams last 4 home games.
- Over is 4-1 in Rams last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 5-2 in Rams last 7 games in January.
- Over is 5-2 in Rams last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 12-5 in Rams last 17 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 9-4 in Rams last 13 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Under is 13-6 in Rams last 19 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
