Indianapolis (11-6) at Kansas City (12-4)
When: Saturday, January 12th, 2019
Where: Arrowhead Stadium,
Kansas City, Missouri
Time: 4:35 ET | TV: NBC
Opening Odds: Kansas City -5.5/52.5
Andy Reid and the Kansas City Chiefs don’t have a very good history when it comes to the postseason, but he’s never had a quarterback as dynamic as Patrick Mahomes. The likely NFL MVP will lead his Chiefs onto the field at Arrowhead Stadium this Saturday when they take on Andrew Luck and the surging Indianapolis Colts in an AFC Divisional Playoff game. Reid led the Chiefs to an AFC West title and were heavy home favorites in the Divisional Round versus Tennessee. Kansas City led 21-3 at the half, but then lost their aggressiveness on offense and went into a second-half shell, losing 22-21. That was the sixth straight home playoff loss by Kansas City with their last postseason victory at Arrowhead was the Wild-Card Round following the 1993 season vs. Pittsburgh. Kansas City is also 0-4 all-time vs. the Colts in the playoffs including a 45-44 loss in January, 2014, after leading by 28 points. Luck threw for 443 yards and four scores in that one but was picked off three times. Alex Smith, now with Washington, had 378 yards and four scores for the Chiefs. Indianapolis posted a road victory last weekend over the AFC South champion Houston Texans as 1.5-point underdogs, and are getting 5.5 points in this one.
The Colts have been the hottest team in the NFL, winning 10 of their last 11 games after starting the regular season 1-5. Indianapolis used a hot start and solid defense in upending the Texans 21-7 last week. Luck threw for 222 yards and two scores, while Marlon Mack rushed for 148 yards and a score behind what has been a terrific offensive line that didn’t allow Luck to get sacked. The defensive unit was led by likely Defensive Rookie of the Year Darius Leonard with a game-high 13 tackles. Safety Mike Mitchell suffered a calf strain in that game, and was a non-participant in Tuesday’s practice.
The Colts defense will have their hands full with a Kansas City offense that led the NFL in scoring at 35.3 points per game and scored at least 26 in every game. Mahomes, who replaced the traded Smith, led the NFL with 50 touchdown passes and was second with 5,097 yards passing, joining Peyton Manning as the only QBs with a 5,000/50 season. The offense hasn’t skipped a beat even after releasing top tailback Kareem Hunt due to an off-field incident. The main concern for Kansas City and their quest for a Super Bowl is their porous defense. The unit allowed 43, 54, 29, and 38 points in the four losses and rank 31st in yards allowed and 24th in points (26.3).
You have to give the Colts a check-mark in almost every category here. Kansas City may have a more dynamic quarterback, but Luck is also one of the best of all-time. The difference is the defense, with the Colts being far superior. The Chiefs inability to win postseason games, especially at home, give me cause for concern. The Colts are just too hot of a team to be getting this many points.
Pick: Colts +5.5
Betting Trends:
- Colts are 7-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Colts are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
- Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
- Colts are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. AFC.
- Chiefs are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win.
- Chiefs are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
- Chiefs are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 vs. AFC.
- Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Saturday games.
- Chiefs are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in January.
- Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
- Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Chiefs are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
- Chiefs are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
- Chiefs are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 playoff games.
- Chiefs are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.
- Chiefs are 0-3-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Chiefs are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 playoff home games.
- Chiefs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Divisional Playoffs games.
- Under is 9-1 in Colts last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-1 in Colts last 6 vs. AFC.
- Under is 9-2 in Colts last 11 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 9-2 in Colts last 11 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 8-2 in Colts last 10 playoff road games.
- Under is 6-2 in Colts last 8 games overall.
- Under is 9-3 in Colts last 12 Saturday games.
- Under is 6-2 in Colts last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 14-5 in Colts last 19 games on grass.
- Under is 5-2 in Colts last 7 Divisional Playoffs games.
- Under is 5-2 in Colts last 7 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 9-4 in Colts last 13 road games.
- Under is 13-6 in Colts last 19 playoff games.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Chiefs last 4 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Chiefs last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Chiefs last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-1 in Chiefs last 6 games overall.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Chiefs last 7 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 5-1 in Chiefs last 6 playoff home games.
- Under is 8-2 in Chiefs last 10 Saturday games.
- Over is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 games on grass.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Chiefs last 6 vs. AFC.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Chiefs last 6 games following a ATS win.
- Under is 13-5 in Chiefs last 18 games in January.
- Under is 5-2 in Chiefs last 7 playoff games.
- Under is 16-7 in Chiefs last 23 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 49-22-1 in Chiefs last 72 home games.
- Colts are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings in Kansas City.
- Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
- Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
- Colts are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 meetings.
