Indianapolis (1-2-1) at Denver (2-2)
When: Thursday, October 6th 2022
Where: Empower Field,
Denver, CO
Time: 8:15 ET | TV: Prime
Opening Odds: Denver -2/40.5
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It’s still early in the season, but the Indianapolis Colts and Denver Broncos have been two of the more disappointing teams in the league. They will meet Thursday night in Denver to kick off Week 5 action around the NFL. Former NFL MVP Matt Ryan is the best quarterback in Atlanta Falcons history but was traded this offseason to Indianapolis, while Seattle’s best QB ever, Russell Wilson, is now with Denver. The Colts were picked by many to win the AFC South, but are off to a 1-2-1 start. Indy is coming off a 24-17 home loss to division rival Tennessee, despite outgaining the Titans by 122 yards. Colts All-Pro tailback Jonathan Taylor is questionable for Thursday’s contest due to a severely twisted right ankle injury suffered last week. Taylor was in a walking boot and was listed as a non-participant on Tuesday’s injury report.
Despite a losing record, Ryan is the only quarterback in the league with two games of 350+ passing yards after recording 356 in Sunday’s loss. The Colts could really used Taylor on Thursday. In 18 career road games, he has 1,937 scrimmage yards (107.6 per game) & 18 touchdowns (15 rushing, three receiving). Taylor’s career average of 111.4 scrimmage yards per game is the second-highest among all active players. Indy has already ruled out All-Pro linebacker Shaquille Leonard and defensive lineman Tyquan Lewis due to concussions. Indy needs more production from Michael Pittman, Jr., who had only three catches on six targets for 31 yards in Week 4. The Colts are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games after a loss.
Denver’s offense is off to a really slow start behind Wilson, averaging only 16.5 points per game. Wilson ranks fifth among active quarterbacks with 296 touchdown passes and in Week 4 surpassed Ryan (295) for the third-most touchdown passes by a player in his first 11 seasons. Gordon has seven touchdowns (six rushing, one receiving) in his past eight games at home but has fumbled four times already this season. The Broncos are 11-4 against the spread in their last 15 Thursday games. Denver will be without linebacker Randy Gregory for at least four weeks with a knee injury suffered Sunday at Las Vegas. The Broncos could have offensive lineman Billy Turner available for the first time this season, as he recovers from a knee injury.
Neither team is doing much offensively, but I trust Denver more to break out and they showed some life last week. Even if Taylor goes for Indy, he won’t be 100% and that really hurts the Colts’ offense. Denver is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 Thursday games. It’s not one of my favorite picks of the week, but I’ll lay the points.
Pick: Broncos -3
