Colorado (5-3) at Arizona (4-5)
When: Friday, November 2nd 2018
Where: Arizona Stadium,
Tuscon, Arizona
Time: 10:30 ET | TV: FS1
Opening Odds: Arizona -1/57
The Colorado Buffaloes weren’t getting much respect when they were the last undefeated team left in the Pac-12 a few weeks ago at 5-0 overall and 2-0 in conference play, while ranking 18th nationally. Fast forward to November and we find out that those experts were right – the Buffaloes have fallen on hard times as the schedule got tougher and come into Friday night’s game against the Arizona Wildcats, mired in a three-game losing streak. To make matters worse, Colorado blew a 31-3 third-quarter lead Saturday en route to a 41-34 homecoming loss to 24-point underdog Oregon State. Meanwhile, Arizona is playing its second straight home game after cruising past No. 21 Oregon 44-15 late Saturday night. Quarterback Khalil Tate threw three touchdown passes after missing the previous game with an ankle injury, while J.J. Taylor ran for 212 yards and two TDs as the Wildcats ended a two-game skid and need a win Friday or they could be on the outside looking in when it comes to Bowl eligibility. Arizona has won five of the seven meetings since Colorado joined the Pac-12 in 2011, including a 45-42 win in Boulder last season. In that game, Tate entered the contest following an injury to then-starting QB Brandon Dawkins in the first quarter and proceeded to rush for a FBS quarterback-record 327 yards and four TDs while throwing for 154 yards and another score.
The Buffaloes early-season success had a lot to do with a solid defense, but that broke-down in a big way last Saturday, allowing 31 points over the final 23:17 of regulation and then surrendering the Beavers’ game-winning TD in overtime. The Colorado offense, meanwhile, stalled in the second half, managing only a field goal after Travon McMillian scored on a 75-yard run 12 seconds into the second half to put the Buffaloes up 31-3. Quarterback Steven Montez has averaged just 211 passing yards and thrown for three TDs and two interceptions during the team’s three-game skid. Colorado has missed FBS receiving leader Laviska Shenault (10.0 receptions, 130.0 receiving yards per game), who’s sat out the last two games with a toe injury and still was listed as ‘day-to-day’ early this week.
After last Saturday’s strong performance, Taylor ranks fourth in the Pac-12 in rushing with 114.3 yards per game and leads all Power Five players with 175.4 all-purpose yards thanks to his 447 kickoff return yards. Tate appears healthy now, but his mobility is not the same as it was last season when he totaled 1,411 yards on 153 carries. This season, he’s accumulated just 139 yards on 53 attempts in eight games. Sophomore linebacker Colin Schooler averages a Pac-12-leading 1.78 tackles for loss to lead a defense that held the high-powered Oregon offense to a season-low 15 points and 260 total yards on Saturday.
I think we all knew this Colorado team wasn’t that good, and at the same time, I don’t believe Arizona is this bad. The Wildcats got a huge win last week and with a healthy Tate, are dangerous. Whether the Buffaloes have Shenault for Friday or not, the Wildcats should easily win this contest at home.
Pick: Arizona -3
Betting Trends:
- Buffaloes are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
- Buffaloes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Friday games.
- Buffaloes are 18-41 ATS in their last 59 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Buffaloes are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Buffaloes are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Buffaloes are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games in November.
- Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
- Wildcats are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games.
- Wildcats are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 Friday games.
- Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
- Wildcats are 23-47 ATS in their last 70 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Wildcats are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Wildcats are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS win.
- Wildcats are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games in November.
- Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
- Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Under is 5-0 in Buffaloes last 5 road games.
- Under is 7-0 in Buffaloes last 7 Friday games.
- Under is 11-2 in Buffaloes last 13 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in Buffaloes last 6 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in Buffaloes last 6 conference games.
- Under is 13-3 in Buffaloes last 16 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Buffaloes last 5 games overall.
- Over is 8-2 in Buffaloes last 10 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Buffaloes last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Over is 5-2 in Buffaloes last 7 games following a straight up loss.
- Under is 9-4 in Buffaloes last 13 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Wildcats last 4 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 5-0 in Wildcats last 5 games following a ATS win.
- Under is 5-0 in Wildcats last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 7-1 in Wildcats last 8 conference games.
- Under is 5-1 in Wildcats last 6 games overall.
- Under is 5-1 in Wildcats last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Under is 4-1 in Wildcats last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Wildcats last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Wildcats last 5 home games.
- Under is 4-1 in Wildcats last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 7-3 in Wildcats last 10 games in November.
- Road team is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
- Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
