Kansas City (4-0) at Houston (2-2)
When: Sunday, October 8th 2017
Where: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Time: 8:30 ET | TV: NBC
Opening Odds: Kansas City -3.5/47
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The NFL’s last unbeaten team puts their streak on the line on Sunday night as the Kansas City Chiefs visit the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. It will be a short turnaround for Kansas City, which needed a last-second field goal to edge the Washington Redskins on Monday night. It also marked one of the strangest endings betting-wise to a game we’ve ever seen, as the Chiefs picked up a Washington fumble on the last play of the game to cover the spread and send the total over. The Texans have been a different team since switching quarterbacks after Week 1. Deshaun Watson accounted for five touchdowns in last week’s 57-14 thumping of visiting Tennessee and looks like the QB of the future for this team. Quarterback Alex Smith has played brilliantly for the Chiefs, who have scored at least 21 second-half points in three of their four victories as the running game has been wearing down opponents. Houston’s 19-12 win last season ended a three-game losing streak in the series, including a playoff rout in January 2016.
Smith is turning into one of the elite quarterbacks in this league and has started 2017 with eight touchdowns versus zero interceptions and leads the league in both passer rating (124.2) and completing percentage (76.0). Rookie running back Kareem Hunt has rushed for more than 100 yards three times while amassing 659 yards from scrimmage – the second-highest total by a rookie through four games in league history. Tight end Travis Kelce, tied with Tyreek Hill for the team lead with 21 catches, had his second 100-yard game and scored his second TD last week. Hunt can join Adrian Peterson as the only rookies in NFL history with at least 100 scrimmage yards in each of his team’s first five games. Kansas City’s defense is surrendering a lot of yards (359.5) but has limited the damage to 19.3 points per game (ranked 10th).
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Watson, who led Clemson to the national championship game two straight years – winning one – threw for 283 yards and four touchdowns and rushed for another score to earn AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors. DeAndre Hopkins is his top target with 31 receptions, but fellow wideout Will Fuller returned from injury to make a strong debut against the Titans with a pair of touchdowns among his four catches. Running back Lamar Miller scored his first two touchdowns of the season last week to boost the running game and recorded 131 yards from scrimmage. Houston ranks fifth overall in yards allowed (291.5) but surrenders 22.0 points per game. The Texans will host the lowly Browns next week before entering their bye week.
This is one of the better games of the weekend and the toughest to predict. Houston has something with Watson running the offense, but the Chiefs are a pretty complete team. Kansas City is not only a perfect 4-0 this season, but have also covered each game and are very good on the road.
Pick: Chiefs -1
- Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.
- Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
- Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
- Chiefs are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Chiefs are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games.
- Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.
- Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.
- Texans are 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Texans are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Texans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Texans are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Texans are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Texans are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Texans are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Texans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Texans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
- Texans are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games in Week 5.
- Over is 4-0 in Chiefs last 4 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in Chiefs last 6 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.
- Over is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 road games.
- Under is 9-3 in Chiefs last 12 games in October.
- Under is 22-8 in Chiefs last 30 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 5-2 in Chiefs last 7 games overall.
- Over is 5-2 in Chiefs last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 7-0 in Texans last 7 games following a ATS win.
- Over is 11-2 in Texans last 13 games in October.
- Under is 5-1 in Texans last 6 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Texans last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
- Over is 4-1 in Texans last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 6-2 in Texans last 8 games in Week 5.
- Over is 6-2 in Texans last 8 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 5-2 in Texans last 7 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 13-6 in Texans last 19 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
- Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Houston.
