Kansas City (6-2) at Dallas (4-3)
When: Sunday, November 5th 2017
Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
Time: 4:25 ET | TV: CBS
Opening Odds: Dallas -1/48
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The back-and-forth saga of Dallas running back Ezekiel Elliott’s playing status has been changing all season long, and it was no different this week leading up to Sunday’s clash against the Kansas City Chiefs. Elliott’s suspension was put back in play early in the week, but a federal appeals court granted the NFL Players Association a brief administrative stay, and he will begin serving his six-game suspension related to a domestic assault claim in Week 10 unless the court extends it. The Chiefs would rather not see Elliott this week, as their defense ranks a porous 28th against the run, despite the team being tied for the best record in the AFC and having the league’s No. 3 offense. The Cowboys have won two straight on the back of Elliott, who has rushed for 297 yards and four touchdowns over the last two victories. Dallas is coming off two road victories, but have not won a home game since their season-opening 19-3 win over the New York Giants, and are still on the outside of a playoff spot in the standings.
The Kansas City offense has been flying high this season thanks to the flawless play of quarterback Alex Smith and the electrifying running of rookie Kareem Hunt, who leads the NFL in rushing yards (763) and scrimmage yards (1,070). Smith’s 16 touchdown passes are tied for the third-most without an interception to start a season in NFL history. The Chiefs have failed to top 300 total yards in the two of their last three games, however, and they haven’t topped 100 rushing yards in any of their last three. The defense has allows a lot of yards (392.2), but their 13 turnovers have kept them in games. They forced five Denver turnovers in last week’s 29-19 victory over the Broncos.
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Dallas’ whole game plan is to run Elliott heavy, and they won’t have to change that up with the second-year star back in the lineup. The Cowboys found out in a Week 2 loss at Denver that Dak Prescott throwing the ball 50 times is not a recipe for winning. The presence of Elliott on Sunday means the Cowboys will not yet need to employ a committee in the backfield, but Alfred Morris could get some touches with the inevitable suspension of Elliott. The Cowboys’ defense has been inconsistent at stopping the run this season, and could have their hands full with Hunt. Dallas has allowed an average of 59 yards on the ground in their four wins compared to 168.7 in their three losses. Cowboys DE DeMarcus Lawrence leads the NFL with 10.5 sacks and has at least one in every game this season.
There are a lot of distractions around Dallas this week with the whole Elliott saga. Kansas City should be able to take advantage of that, and remember, the Chiefs are a very good road team, covering nine of their last 10 away from Arrowhead.
Pick: Chiefs +2.5
- Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on fieldturf.
- Chiefs are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.
- Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
- Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
- Chiefs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in November.
- Chiefs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
- Chiefs are 7-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Chiefs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Chiefs are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.
- Chiefs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Cowboys are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Cowboys are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Cowboys are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS win.
- Cowboys are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games.
- Cowboys are 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 games on fieldturf.
- Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 9.
- Cowboys are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Cowboys are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Cowboys are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 6-1 in Chiefs last 7 road games.
- Over is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 games overall.
- Under is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 games in Week 9.
- Under is 24-7 in Chiefs last 31 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 20-7 in Chiefs last 27 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 5-2 in Chiefs last 7 games on fieldturf.
- Under is 5-2 in Chiefs last 7 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.
- Under is 16-7-1 in Chiefs last 24 games in November.
- Over is 4-0 in Cowboys last 4 games overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Cowboys last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 home games.
- Over is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 games on fieldturf.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Cowboys last 6 games in Week 9.
- Over is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 7-2 in Cowboys last 9 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Home team is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
