Kansas City (2-1) at Tampa Bay (2-1)
When: Sunday, October 2nd 2022
Where: Raymond James Stadium,
Tampa, Florida
Time: 8:15 ET | TV: NBC
Opening Odds: Kansas City -2/48
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It’s been a very slow start for the living legend Tom Brady through three weeks of the 2022 season, and he and the Bucs will look to get things going when they host the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football in Week 4. Brady threw for 271 yards and one touchdown in Tampa Bay’s 14-12 loss at home to the Green Bay Packers last week. On the season, Brady has just 673 passing yards and three touchdowns after setting franchise records in both categories last season (5,316, 43). It’s been the Bucs defense that has helped them to a 2-1 start, allowing a league-low 9.0 points a game. Kansas City opened this game as a 2-point favorite and it’s now a Pickem as of Saturday afternoon with a total of 45.5.
Mahomes and the Chiefs were held to only 17 points on Sunday. Mahomes was 20-of-35 for 262 yards, a TD and a pick. Mahomes has lost back-to-back regular-season starts just three times in his career. Special teams didn’t help much on Sunday. They didn’t convert on a fake field goal in the fourth quarter and muffed a punt that set up the Colts inside the 5-yard line for a touchdown. Kicker Matt Ammendola missed a 34-yard field goal try and an extra point, but with Butker due back, he was cut. Defensively, the Chiefs had five sacks and 10 quarterback hits while allowing just 259 yards of total offense, which marked the Chiefs’ best effort since Week 8 of the 2020 season. The Over is 5-1 in the Chiefs’ last six games away from home.
The Bucs’ offense has been an issue so far and managed only 12 points in a loss to Green Bay on Sunday. Brady is looking to avoid losing consecutive home games for just the fourth time in his entire career. Granted, he was without star receivers Mike Evans, Julio Jones and Chris Godwin, but Evans will play this week and Jones probably will. Russell Gage had 12 catches for 87 yards and a score last week as the top receiver. Tackle Donovan Smith (elbow) and defensive lineman Logan Hall (groin) were limited in practice this week, while wide receiver Breshad Perriman (knee/hamstring) and defensive tackle Akiem Hicks (foot) did not participate. The Bucs practiced in Miami this week due to Hurricane Ian bearing down on the Gulf Coast.
Brady is struggling and you can blame it on a banged-up receiving corps. Only Evans is a lock to comeback, so they’re still thin. Kansas City does really well against good defenses and make them look mediocre. The Chiefs are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 against teams allowing less than 17 points a game. I think Mahomes has a big night and carries the Chiefs to victory.
Pick: Chiefs PK
