Kansas City (3-0) at Denver (2-1)
When: Monday, October 1st 2018
Where: Broncos Stadium at Mile High,
Denver, Colorado
Time: 8:15 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Kansas City -3.5/55
The high-flying Kansas City Chiefs look to stay perfect when they invade Mile High and take on the Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football to concluded Week 4 action. Led by quarterback Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs have set the world on fire with at least 38 points in each of their first three games, and have needed every bit of it, as their defense just can’t seem to stop anyone. Kansas City is tops in the league with 39.3 points a game, but the defense is dead last in total yards allowed (474.0) and 30th in points allowed (30.7). Denver looks to snap a five-game losing streak in this series and pull even with Kansas City atop the AFC West standings. Denver won their first two games over Seattle and Oakland, but dropped a 27-14 road decision to the Baltimore Ravens last week. New quarterback Case Keenum is still trying to get into a rhythm with his new team, but Denver is starting to establish a running game and ranks third in the league with 144.7 yards a game on the ground. The Broncos are 0-5 ATS in their last five games against their own division, and 0-4 ATS against a team with a winning record. There could be some points scored in this game if history is any indication as the over is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings between these two teams.
Mahomes threw for 314 yards and three touchdowns in last week’s 38-27 home win over San Francisco despite his big-play threat in Tyreek Hill being held in check and kept out of the end zone. Veteran tight end Travis Kelce picked up the slack with eight catches for 114 yards, while running back Kareem Hunt recorded a pair of 1-yard TD runs. Mahomes has thrown 13 touchdowns in three games this season, and has yet to throw an interception. Kansas City will be home next week to defensive-minded Jacksonville.
Keenum signed a two-year deal with Denver after he led Minnesota to the NFC Championship Game, but he already has been intercepted five times – just two fewer than his total for the entire 2017 season. He’s still trying to find chemistry with his new receivers – Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas – who have a combined 35 receptions. Running backs Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman have recorded 350 yards for the league’s third-ranked rushing attack. Denver’s defense will look to get after Mahomes with a group led by former Super Bowl MVP Von Miller, who is tied for the NFL lead with four sacks. The Broncos defense ranks 13th overall, but 21st against the pass.
This one has all the makings of a shootout at Mile High. The fact that Kansas City has the top offense and one of the worst defenses in the league, means we will see a lot of points. Not to mention that the over keeps coming in when these two teams meet.
Pick: OVER 54.5
Betting Trends:
- Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Chiefs are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
- Chiefs are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
- Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
- Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
- Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC.
- Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Monday games.
- Chiefs are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games.
- Chiefs are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 vs. AFC West.
- Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 4.
- Broncos are 7-18-2 ATS in their last 27 games overall.
- Broncos are 7-18-2 ATS in their last 27 games on grass.
- Broncos are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 vs. AFC.
- Broncos are 2-7-2 ATS in their last 11 Monday games.
- Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Broncos are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.
- Broncos are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Broncos are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up loss.
- Broncos are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss.
- Broncos are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Broncos are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC West.
- Broncos are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Chiefs last 4 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Chiefs last 4 Monday games.
- Over is 4-0 in Chiefs last 4 games in Week 4.
- Under is 4-0 in Chiefs last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 games overall.
- Over is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 games in October.
- Over is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 games on grass.
- Over is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 games following a ATS win.
- Over is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 21-6 in Chiefs last 27 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 22-9 in Chiefs last 31 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Broncos last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 vs. AFC.
- Under is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 games in Week 4.
- Under is 7-2 in Broncos last 9 games in October.
- Under is 7-2 in Broncos last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 5-2 in Broncos last 7 games overall.
- Over is 5-2 in Broncos last 7 Monday games.
- Over is 34-16-1 in Broncos last 51 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
- Over is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings.
- Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Denver.
- Road team is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings.
- Underdog is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
