LA Chargers (13-4) at New England (11-5)
When: Sunday, January 13th, 2019
Where: Gillette Stadium,
Foxborough, Massachusetts
Time: 1:05 ET | TV: CBS
Opening Odds: New England -5/48.5
Philip Rivers has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league over his career, but one guy – and team – has been standing in his way from getting that elusive Super Bowl ring. That man is Tom Brady. Rivers is 0-7 when facing the future Hall of Famer and will get another crack at him when his Los Angeles Chargers take on the New England Patriots in an AFC Divisional matchup Sunday afternoon. The winner moves on to face either the Colts or Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game. The Patriots won the AFC East for the ninth straight season, earning a first round bye and winning 11 regular season games in each of them. New England had some bad losses this season, but those were on the road. At Gillette Stadium, they’re a perfect 8-0 including 6-2 ATS. The Chargers might be one of the best Wild Card teams ever with their 12-4 record, having lost just twice in their past 14 games. L.A. is coming off an impressive road win over the Baltimore Ravens last week in the wild card game and now must play in the Eastern Time Zone once again. Rivers’ lone career win vs. New England came in the 2008 regular season when Brady was out injured for the year and Matt Cassel was the quarterback. Brady has thrown for just under 2,000 yards with 13 TDs against one interception in his past five postseason games.
Rivers is coming off a fine season, but has slowed down lately, passing for only one touchdown pass in the past three games and failing to throw for more than 181 yards in that span. He matched his career high this campaign with a 105.5 quarterback rating with throwing 32 scoring strikes. He could really use a healthy Melvin Gordon, who was hobbled down the stretch by an ankle injury that limited him in practice Thursday, but he still rushed for 10 touchdowns and had 50 receptions for four more scores in only 12 games. Keenan Allen has been carrying this receiving corp with 97 receptions, but Rivers will get help with the return of tight end Hunter Henry, who tore an ACL in May but practiced fully Wednesday and Thursday. The Chargers are solid on defense, ranking 11th overall and registered seven sacks last week. The unit is led by defensive ends Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa, who both pressure the quarterback.
Brady had another solid season – not his best – throwing for 4,355 yards with 29 touchdowns against 11 interceptions despite not having a real No. 1 receiver. Rookie Sony Michel helped the usually non-existent running game with 931 yards and six touchdowns despite missing three games. Versatile backup James White added 425 yards and five scores on the ground while leading the team with 87 receptions and seven TD catches. Julian Edelman is Brady’s top target with 74 catches but New England’s passing game is not the same without a healthy Rob Gronkowski, who tied a career low with three touchdowns and had three or fewer catches in seven of his last eight games. The defense is not the Patriots’ strongest suite, ranking 21st in yards allowed (359.1), including 22nd against the pass.
The Patriots are almost automatic at home in the playoffs, but they’ve had a few close calls in recent years, and the Chargers are not afraid to play on the road. The Chargers are 9-0 this year outside of Los Angeles and they have a better roster than New England – and a better record. I say this is a very close game with a FG deciding it late.
Pick: Chargers +4
Betting Trends:
- Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff road games.
- Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Chargers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games in January.
- Chargers are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Chargers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 playoff games.
- Chargers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games on fieldturf.
- Chargers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
- Chargers are 35-17-2 ATS in their last 54 road games.
- Chargers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Chargers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Patriots are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Divisional Playoffs games.
- Patriots are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
- Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in January.
- Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
- Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Patriots are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games following a ATS win.
- Patriots are 15-6-2 ATS in their last 23 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Patriots are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 playoff home games.
- Patriots are 38-16-2 ATS in their last 56 home games.
- Patriots are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 playoff games.
- Patriots are 18-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Patriots are 36-16 ATS in their last 52 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Patriots are 20-9-1 ATS in their last 30 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Patriots are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Patriots are 37-17 ATS in their last 54 games overall.
- Patriots are 25-12 ATS in their last 37 vs. AFC.
- Patriots are 37-18-2 ATS in their last 57 games following a straight up win.
- Patriots are 82-40-2 ATS in their last 124 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Chargers last 4 playoff games.
- Under is 5-0 in Chargers last 5 games on fieldturf.
- Under is 6-1 in Chargers last 7 games following a ATS win.
- Under is 5-1 in Chargers last 6 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Chargers last 5 games overall.
- Under is 4-1 in Chargers last 5 playoff road games.
- Over is 4-1 in Chargers last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 11-4 in Chargers last 15 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 21-8 in Chargers last 29 vs. AFC.
- Under is 5-2 in Chargers last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 36-15-1 in Chargers last 52 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 8-0-1 in Patriots last 9 Divisional Playoffs games.
- Under is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 home games.
- Under is 5-0 in Patriots last 5 games on fieldturf.
- Under is 8-1 in Patriots last 9 games overall.
- Over is 8-1 in Patriots last 9 playoff home games.
- Under is 6-1 in Patriots last 7 vs. AFC.
- Under is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 playoff games.
- Over is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 games in January.
- Under is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 games following a ATS win.
- Over is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 12-4 in Patriots last 16 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 9-3 in Patriots last 12 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2 in Patriots last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
- Under is 7-3 in Patriots last 10 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
- Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
- Chargers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
