LA Chargers (4-6) at Dallas (5-5)
When: Thursday, November 23rd 2017
Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
Time: 4:30 ET | TV: CBS
Opening Odds: Dallas -4/47.5
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Two teams fighting to stay in the playoff hunt will meet on Thanksgiving afternoon when the Dallas Cowboys host the Los Angeles Chargers at AT&T Stadium. The Chargers sit in 12th place in the AFC, but are just one-game behind the sixth and final Wild Card spot, while also being just two games behind Kansas City in the AFC West standings. L.A. should have some momentum in the short week after a 54-24 rout of Buffalo in which they forced six turnovers (five interceptions), while the Cowboys come limping in. Dallas, who are badly missing running back Ezekiel Elliott, have been routed in their last two games by a combined 64-16 to Atlanta and Philadelphia. The Cowboys only shot at a postseason berth appears to be as a wild card, but they are a game behind Atlanta – who they’ve already lost to. This will be the 50th Thanksgiving Day game for the Cowboys, while the Chargers franchise hasn’t played in one since 1969 when they won 21-17 at Houston. The Chargers will also be wearing their throwback powder blue uniforms. The Chargers won the last two meetings, but the Cowboys hold a 6-4 advantage in the all-time series.
Los Angeles has recovered from an 0-4 start and are within striking distance of Kansas City, who has dropped four of its last five games. Wide Receiver Keenan Allen (56 receptions, 755 yards) has recovered from last season’s ACL injury to once again become Philip Rivers’ favorite target. The running game needs to improve over their 94.4 average per game that ranks 25th in the league. Lead back Melvin Gordon has eclipsed 100 yards only twice this season after rushing for 997 yards in 13 games last season. Star pass rushers Joey Bosa (10.5 sacks) and Melvin Ingram (8.5) pace a defense that is ranked eighth in scoring (19.6 points per game), but dead last against the run (138.9). L.A. will host winless Cleveland next Sunday afternoon.
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Quarterback Dak Prescott has passed for 2,139 yards and 16 touchdowns with seven interceptions, but Dallas has allowed 12 sacks over the last two games while missing left tackle Tryon Smith (groin/back) and now must figure out how to stop Bosa and Ingram. Alfred Morris is getting the most carries with Elliott on the shelf and is averaging 6.2 yards a carry, but Dallas has been playing from behind and have been forced to pass a lot more. Tight end Jason Witten (43 receptions) had made just one catch in two of his last three games. The defense, which is receiving a career year from defensive end Demarcus Lawrence (11.5 sacks), will be missing outside linebacker Sean Lee (hamstring) once again. The Cowboys will also play next Thursday night – this time against the Redskins.
The Chargers are definitely playing better than Dallas right now, but this is Thanksgiving, and the Cowboys don’t want to be embarrassed for a third week in a row. Look for Morris to be more involved in the Cowboys’ offense and the defense to pressure Rivers into making mistakes. I’ll take the home team here.
Pick: Cowboys +2.5
- Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November.
- Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
- Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
- Chargers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Chargers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
- Chargers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Chargers are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Chargers are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games following a straight up win.
- Chargers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Cowboys are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
- Cowboys are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss.
- Cowboys are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games on fieldturf.
- Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points.
- Cowboys are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 12.
- Cowboys are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 Thursday games.
- Cowboys are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Chargers last 4 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 6-1 in Chargers last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
- Under is 5-1 in Chargers last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Chargers last 5 games overall.
- Over is 4-1 in Chargers last 5 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 7-2-1 in Chargers last 10 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 6-2 in Chargers last 8 road games.
- Under is 6-2-1 in Chargers last 9 Thursday games.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Chargers last 5 games following a ATS win.
- Under is 20-8-1 in Chargers last 29 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Over is 6-0 in Cowboys last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Over is 5-0 in Cowboys last 5 games in Week 12.
- Under is 8-2 in Cowboys last 10 games following a double-digit loss at home.
- Under is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 games in November.
- Under is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 6-2 in Cowboys last 8 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Under is 10-4 in Cowboys last 14 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-2 in Cowboys last 7 Thursday games.
- Under is 5-2 in Cowboys last 7 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Under is 15-7 in Cowboys last 22 games following a ATS loss.
- Under is 32-15-1 in Cowboys last 48 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
- Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
