LA Chargers (7-6) at Kansas City (7-6)
When: Saturday, December 16th 2017
Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Time: 8:30 ET | TV: NFL Network
Opening Odds: Kansas City -1/46
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A quarter of the way through the season, this Week 15 matchup looked like it would mean nothing to the Los Angeles Chargers, but their season has completely turned around and now they’ll be playing the Kansas City Chiefs for first place in the AFC West on Saturday night. The Chargers started their first season in Los Angeles with an 0-4 start including a 24-10 home loss to Kansas City in Week 3, but have a chance now to become the second team in the modern-era to lose the first four games and make the playoffs – the other being the 1992 Chargers. They haven’t done it alone, however, as the Kansas City Chiefs have completely fallen apart after a 5-0 start. Kansas City lost six of their next seven games and snapped a four-game losing streak with a 26-15 win against the Oakland Raiders last week, while Los Angeles kept pace atop the division with a 30-13 thumping of Washington. The Chargers are hoping to end a seven-game skid against the Chiefs during which they’ve lost by an average of 11.7 points. Los Angeles quarterback Philip Rivers has joined Peyton Manning and Drew Brees as the only players in NFL history with 3,500 passing yards in 10 consecutive seasons.
Rivers has averaged 337 passing yards per game with eight touchdowns and no interceptions in his last four outings, leading Los Angeles’ fifth-ranked offense. Keenan Allen, who could be the most underrated wide receiver in the league, has caught 39 passes for 547 yards and four scores over the last four weeks, while tight end Hunter Henry has been a force in the red zone. Allen is the first Charger with four consecutive 100-yard receiving performances since Wes Chandler in 1982. The Chargers’ defense is also another underrated unit, ranking second in points allowed (17.3) and third against the pass (200.3). They do have one glaring weakness, and that’s stopping the run. L.A. is 30th in that department, allowing 124.8 a game and was gashed for 189 yards in the first meeting with Kansas City.
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After it looked like running back Kareem Hunt would runaway with the NFL Rookie of the Year Award, things went south, but he got back on track last week with a 116-yard rushing effort against the Raiders. Quarterback Alex Smith is still looking to get back to his early-season form and has recorded seven touchdown passes and five interceptions over his last five games after throwing for 16 scores with no interceptions in the first eight weeks. The defense has been the main reason for the Chiefs failures, rankings 30th against the run and 28th versus the pass, but they limited Oakland to 268 total yards and forced three turnovers last week. The defense benefited early-on with a lot of turnovers that led to numerous scoring opportunities for the offense.
Smith and the Chiefs have dominated the Chargers in recent years and last week’s effort by Kansas City will give them confidence in this one. Smith has thrown six touchdown passes and two interceptions while posting a 108.7 rating in his last three games against the Chargers. I will take the Chiefs at home in prime time almost every time.
Pick: Chiefs PK
- Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
- Chargers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
- Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Chargers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Chargers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Chargers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 Saturday games.
- Chargers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Chargers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in December.
- Chargers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Chargers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Chiefs are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. AFC West.
- Chiefs are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Chiefs are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
- Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 15.
- Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
- Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games.
- Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Chargers last 4 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Chargers last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Chargers last 4 road games.
- Under is 5-0 in Chargers last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
- Under is 5-0 in Chargers last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0 in Chargers last 5 games in Week 15.
- Under is 7-1 in Chargers last 8 games overall.
- Under is 7-1 in Chargers last 8 Saturday games.
- Under is 7-1 in Chargers last 8 vs. AFC.
- Under is 5-1 in Chargers last 6 games on grass.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Chargers last 7 games following a ATS win.
- Under is 7-2-1 in Chargers last 10 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 21-7 in Chargers last 28 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 25-9-1 in Chargers last 35 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 19-7-1 in Chargers last 27 games in December.
- Over is 9-4-1 in Chargers last 14 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Chiefs last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 games overall.
- Under is 6-2 in Chiefs last 8 Saturday games.
- Over is 5-2 in Chiefs last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 14-6 in Chiefs last 20 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 42-19 in Chiefs last 61 home games.
- Road team is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
- Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Kansas City.
- Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
- Chargers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
