Central Florida (4-1) at Cincinnati (3-1)
When: Friday, October 4th 2019
Where: Nippert Stadium,
Cincinnati, OH
Time: 8:00 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: UCF -3.5/60.5
The battle for the American Athletic Conference East Division title might very well come down to this early-season matchup between the Central Florida Knights and Cincinnati Bearcats – taking place Friday night at historic Nippert Stadium. The Knights, who are seeking their third consecutive outright East crown, were finally beat two weeks ago after a 26-game winning streak, but bounced back in a big way last Saturday. The Knights rolled hapless UConn 56-21 by recording 607 yards of offense to open their AAC slate as freshman quarterback Dillon Gabriel threw for three Touchdowns. The Bearcats will play AAC foes the rest of the way after finishing 4-1 out of conference after a 52-14 rout of Marshall where they outgained the Thundering Herd 525-256. Sophomore quarterback Desmond Ridder was named AAC Offensive Player of the Week with four touchdown passes while the defense kept Marshall off the scoreboard until the fourth quarter. You could take a lot of action on this game if you opened your own sportsbook with the help of a pay per head service, as Friday night football games receive a lot of handle. ESPN’s College GameDay was at this meeting in Orlando last year and the Bearcats suffered their most lopsided loss of the season in the 38-13 setback. UCF has won three in a row in the series after Cincinnati took the first meeting in 2015.
Gabriel now has 14 touchdown passes in five games against just two interceptions, which he threw in the loss to Pitt two weeks ago. The freshman completed 11-of-16 for 281 yards against UConn, while sophomore Darriel Mack Jr. got some action late. Senior quarterback Brandon Wimbush may end up playing some wide receiver this season if Gabriel continues to excel. Gabriel Davis (25 catches, 499 yards, eight TDs) and Tre Nixon (19, 290, two) already lead a talented group of wideouts that helps UCF average an FBS-second-best 568.6 yards per game. After holding their first two opponents to 14 points total, the defense has surrendered at least 21 points in three straight contests.
Cincinnati has a solid rushing attack that is led by senior Michael Warren II (262 yards) and needs just 85 yards to become the 13th Bearcat to accumulate 2,000 on the ground for a career. Ridder was extremely efficient against Marshall, completing 18-of-22 for 221 yards and his top target is wideout Alec Pierce (14 receptions, 277 yards, TD). The defense is what makes this Cincinnati team more rounded than years past and are holding opponents to 14 points or fewer in their three wins. They went from allowing 31.8 points in 2017 to 17.2 last year and are on their way to matching that despite giving up 42 in a loss to Ohio State.
Well, we finally know that UCF is beatable and this should be a much tougher road contest than the one in Pittsburgh. Cincinnati has a terrific all-around team and also have the revenge-factor in their favor after getting smoked in Orlando last year. I expect the Bearcats to hang in this one and possibly pull off the upset.
Pick: Cincinnati +4 (More Week 6 Free Picks)
Betting Trends:
Knights are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
Knights are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Knights are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Knights are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games in October.
Knights are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games.
Knights are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Friday games.
Knights are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 conference games.
Knights are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up win.
Knights are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Knights are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games overall.
Knights are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games on fieldturf.
Knights are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Bearcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
Bearcats are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Bearcats are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in October.
Bearcats are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Bearcats are 5-16 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Bearcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Bearcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
Bearcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Bearcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Bearcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Bearcats are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Under is 7-1 in Knights last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 5-1 in Knights last 6 games on fieldturf.
Under is 4-1 in Knights last 5 road games.
Over is 4-1 in Knights last 5 games following a straight up win.
Under is 4-1 in Knights last 5 games in October.
Under is 8-3 in Knights last 11 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in Knights last 7 games overall.
Over is 5-2 in Knights last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 14-6 in Knights last 20 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 7-3 in Knights last 10 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Under is 9-4 in Knights last 13 Friday games.
Over is 7-0 in Bearcats last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Over is 5-0 in Bearcats last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Over is 6-1 in Bearcats last 7 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Bearcats last 5 Friday games.
Over is 4-1 in Bearcats last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 6-2 in Bearcats last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 6-2 in Bearcats last 8 games following a ATS win.
Under is 24-9-1 in Bearcats last 34 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Bearcats last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 35-15-1 in Bearcats last 51 games in October.
Over is 7-3 in Bearcats last 10 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
