Boston (2-0) at Cleveland (0-2)
When: Saturday, May 19th 2018
Where: Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland
Time: 8:35 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Cleveland -5/204.5
The Boston Celtics have feasted on opponents at TD Garden this postseason (9-0), but the young team is having a little trouble on the road, and will try and improve on their 1-4 record when they visit the Cleveland Cavaliers for Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Saturday night. The Celtics outplayed Cleveland in both of the first two games, winning by an average of 19 points despite another triple-double from LeBron James (42 points, 12 assists and 10 rebounds) in a 13-point Game 2 loss. Cavaliers head coach Tyronn Lue wants his team to be tougher, mentally and physically. “We’ve got to come out swinging. We’ve got to be aggressive. I think we’ve got to be physical, and we’ve got to have a physical mindset, you know, that they’re coming in, playing tough. They’re aggressive, and we’ve got to match that.” Cleveland really needs another scorer to consistently step-up behind James, because Boston, although void of a superstar, have several guys that are contributing offensively. Six Celtics average double-digit points led by Jayson Tatum (18.1), who scored 27 combined in the first two games after setting a franchise rookie record of seven straight 20-point outings. Boston can all but wrap-up the series with a victory Saturday and move one step closer to their first Finals trip since 2010.
Backup guard Marcus Smart has good numbers through two games (10 points, 7.5 assists, four rebounds and 2.5 steals), but is just 7-of-21 from the floor. Starting shooting guard Jaylen Brown has been terrific with back-to-back 23-point outings while center Al Horford continues his resurgence with 17.5 points, seven rebounds, five assists and two blocked shots over the first two games.
James was bothered by a strained neck after Game 2 but the extra days of rest figure to leave him near full strength. One of the players that Cleveland needs to get going is shooting guard JR Smith, who is averaging two points on 2-of-16 shooting (0-of-7 from 3-point range) and committed a controversial flagrant 1 foul on a defenseless Horford in Game 2. That’s the kind of frustration Cleveland is showing right now as Games 3 and 4 have turned into must-win situations.
I’m sticking with Boston in this one, and here’s why. First off, I think Cleveland can win this game because of James, but running away with a 7-point win is tough against a team like Boston. The Celtics have been one of the best spread teams this season, going 29-16 against the number on the road, while Cleveland is 14-32-1 at home. When the Cavaliers are a favorite of six or more points, they are 12-28 ATS, while Boston is 6-3 ATS as a 6-point or more dog. The best stat might be the days off. When working on three-days rest, Boston is 6-1 ATS, averaging 109.6 points a game and Cleveland is 0-5 ATS in such situations, scoring just 92.0 points a game. Take the points.
Pick: Celtics +6.5
- Celtics are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
- Celtics are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
- Celtics are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
- Celtics are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
- Celtics are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Central.
- Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Conference Finals games.
- Celtics are 23-7-1 ATS in their last 31 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.
- Celtics are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 vs. Eastern Conference.
- Celtics are 25-9 ATS in their last 34 games overall.
- Celtics are 41-15 ATS in their last 56 Saturday games.
- Celtics are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
- Celtics are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Celtics are 52-23-1 ATS in their last 76 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
- Celtics are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
- Celtics are 42-20-2 ATS in their last 64 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Celtics are 37-18 ATS in their last 55 road games.
- Cavaliers are 17-36 ATS in their last 53 Saturday games.
- Cavaliers are 12-26 ATS in their last 38 games following a ATS loss.
- Cavaliers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
- Cavaliers are 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 home games.
- Cavaliers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
- Cavaliers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 vs. Eastern Conference.
- Cavaliers are 11-39-2 ATS in their last 52 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.
- Cavaliers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
- Cavaliers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Conference Finals games.
- Cavaliers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Cavaliers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
- Under is 4-0 in Celtics last 4 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 4-0 in Celtics last 4 games following a ATS win.
- Under is 4-0 in Celtics last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
- Over is 10-2 in Celtics last 12 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.
- Under is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 overall.
- Over is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 Saturday games.
- Under is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 vs. Eastern Conference.
- Under is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 vs. NBA Central.
- Under is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
- Over is 3-1-1 in Celtics last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
- Under is 6-0 in Cavaliers last 6 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
- Under is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 games following a straight up loss.
- Over is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Under is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.
- Under is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
- Under is 9-3 in Cavaliers last 12 home games.
- Over is 17-8 in Cavaliers last 25 Saturday games.
- Celtics are 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Cleveland.
- Celtics are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
- Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
- Road team is 14-5-1 ATS in the last 20 meetings.
