St Louis (85-67) at Chicago Cubs (82-70)
When: Thursday, September 19, 2019
Where: Wrigley Field,
Chicago, Illinois
Time: 7:15 ET | TV: FOX
Opening Odds: Chicago -115
Two bitter rivals – the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs – each have 10 games left in the regular season and will see each other seven times beginning Thursday night at Wrigley Field. The race for the National League Central crown could come down to those seven contests, as the Cardinals begin the four-game series with a three-game lead over both the Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers after their 5-1 victory over Washington Wednesday afternoon. The Cubs and Brewers would love to win the division, but might be fighting each other for a wild card berth with both tied for the second spot, 1.5 games behind the Nationals and three clear of the Phillies and Mets. St. Louis’ victory over Washington was just their second win in five games and now go to a place that has been a house of horrors for them this season. The Cardinals have been outscored 40-16 in dropping all six games at Wrigley Field and are just 36-38 away from Busch Stadium. The Cubs failed to take advantage of Milwaukee’s loss on Wednesday by dropping their second straight to the Cincinnati Reds, 3-2 in 10 innings after winning their previous five. Chicago is 7-5 overall versus the Cardinals this season but will be without SS Javier Baez (thumb) and 1B Anthony Rizzo (ankle).
Pitchers: Cardinals – Jack Flaherty (10-8, 3.05 ERA) | Cubs – Kyle Hendricks (11-9, 3.26)
Flaherty hadn’t allowed more than two runs in a game since July 2nd – 12 starts – until allowing three over six innings in a loss to Milwaukee on Saturday, but did strike out 10 in that 5-2 setback. He has an amazing seven scoreless outings over his last 11 turns and is 4-4 with a 3.59 ERA away from home. Flaherty allowed one hit over seven shutout innings in a win over the Cubs on August 1st.
Hendricks has a string of three straight starts allowing exactly one run in each while his offense has produced 24 runs in his last two outings. He has owned St. Louis this season, going 3-0 with a 0.39 ERA in three starts and is much better at home than the road. Hendricks is 6-2 with a 1.75 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in 13 starts at Wrigley Field this season.
I’m giving a slight edge to the Cubs based on the road/home splits with both the teams and the starting pitchers. Not to mention, the Cubs are 6-0 against St. Louis at Wrigley Field this season. This should be an entertaining series and I’ll take the Cubs in the opener.
Check out who Bobby Babowski has on his Free MLB Picks page for Thursday. He is 130-89 +2808 units on the season after a 31-16 run!
Pick: Cubs -105
BETTING TRENDS:
Cardinals are 7-1 in their last 8 Thursday games.
Cardinals are 7-2 in their last 9 during game 1 of a series.
Cardinals are 10-3 in their last 13 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Cardinals are 25-10 in their last 35 vs. National League Central.
Cardinals are 16-7 in their last 23 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Cardinals are 27-12 in their last 39 overall.
Cardinals are 27-12 in their last 39 games on grass.
Cardinals are 3-7 in their last 10 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Cardinals are 2-5 in their last 7 games following a win.
Cardinals are 7-19 in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Cardinals are 7-20 in their last 27 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Cardinals are 1-4 in their last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Cardinals are 1-4 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Cardinals are 5-1 in Flaherty’s last 6 starts with 4 days of rest.
Cardinals are 8-3 in Flaherty’s last 11 starts.
Cardinals are 8-3 in Flaherty’s last 11 starts on grass.
Cardinals are 2-5 in Flaherty’s last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Cardinals are 1-5 in Flaherty’s last 6 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Cubs are 7-0 in their last 7 during game 1 of a series.
Cubs are 4-1 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Cubs are 58-23 in their last 82 Thursday games.
Cubs are 5-2 in their last 7 overall.
Cubs are 5-2 in their last 7 games on grass.
Cubs are 37-15 in their last 52 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Cubs are 79-36 in their last 115 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Cubs are 47-23 in their last 70 home games.
Cubs are 3-7 in their last 10 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Cubs are 2-6 in their last 8 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Cubs are 1-5 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Cubs are 1-5 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
Cubs are 5-0 in Hendricks’ last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Cubs are 4-0 in Hendricks’ last 4 home starts.
Cubs are 5-0 in Hendricks’ last 5 starts.
Cubs are 5-0 in Hendricks’ last 5 starts on grass.
Cubs are 13-3 in Hendricks’ last 16 Thursday starts.
Cubs are 4-1 in Hendricks’ last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
Cubs are 18-6 in Hendricks’ last 24 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Cubs are 6-2 in Hendricks’ last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Cubs are 38-14 in Hendricks’ last 52 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Cubs are 8-3 in Hendricks’ last 11 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Cubs are 2-5 in Hendricks’ last 7 starts vs. National League Central.
Under is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Under is 6-1 in Cardinals last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-1-1 in Cardinals last 6 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 12-3 in Cardinals last 15 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 4-1-1 in Cardinals last 6 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 20-6-1 in Cardinals last 27 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Under is 19-6-2 in Cardinals last 27 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 3-1-1 in Cardinals last 5 overall.
Under is 3-1-1 in Cardinals last 5 on grass.
Under is 3-1-1 in Cardinals last 5 games following a win.
Under is 13-5-1 in Cardinals last 19 road games.
Over is 5-2 in Cardinals last 7 vs. National League Central.
Under is 13-6 in Cardinals last 19 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 37-18-2 in Cardinals last 57 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 6-0 in Flaherty’s last 6 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 6-0-2 in Flaherty’s last 8 road starts.
Under is 5-0-1 in Flaherty’s last 6 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 4-0-1 in Flaherty’s last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Under is 5-0 in Flaherty’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 6-0-1 in Flaherty’s last 7 starts vs. National League Central.
Under is 9-1-1 in Flaherty’s last 11 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 6-1-1 in Flaherty’s last 8 starts with 4 days of rest.
Under is 12-2-2 in Flaherty’s last 16 starts on grass.
Under is 12-2-2 in Flaherty’s last 16 starts overall.
Under is 19-6-1 in Flaherty’s last 26 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Over is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 during game 1 of a series.
Under is 5-1 in Cubs last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Cubs last 6 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 7-2 in Cubs last 9 games following a loss.
Under is 13-5-1 in Cubs last 19 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Over is 5-2 in Cubs last 7 vs. National League Central.
Under is 5-2-1 in Cubs last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 9-4 in Cubs last 13 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Over is 4-1 in Hendricks’ last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Under is 26-7-1 in Hendricks’ last 34 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 6-2 in Hendricks’ last 8 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 24-9 in Hendricks’ last 33 starts vs. National League Central.
Under is 18-7-1 in Hendricks’ last 26 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 43-17-1 in Hendricks’ last 61 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 38-15-1 in Hendricks’ last 54 home starts.
Under is 47-22 in Hendricks’ last 69 starts on grass.
Under is 47-22 in Hendricks’ last 69 starts overall.
Under is 36-17 in Hendricks’ last 53 starts during game 1 of a series.
Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
Cubs are 6-0 in Hendricks’ last 6 home starts vs. Cardinals.
Cubs are 14-3 in Hendricks’ last 17 starts vs. Cardinals.
Under is 4-1 in Hendricks’ last 5 starts vs. Cardinals.
Over is 11-4-1 in the last 16 meetings in Chicago.
Cardinals are 5-21 in the last 26 meetings in Chicago.
