St Louis (0-0) at Atlanta (0-0)
When: Thursday, October 3rd 2019
Where: SunTrust Park,
Cumberland, Georgia
Time: 5:02 ET | TV: TBS
Opening Odds: Atlanta -129/8
The St. Louis Cardinals were barely a .500 team around the All-Star Break, but solid pitching and timely hitting can carry you a long way. St. Louis closed the season on a 47-26 run to take the National League Central and will take on the Atlanta Braves in the NLDS starting with Game 1 Thursday at SunTrust Park. The Cardinals nearly blew the division on the final weekend to the Milwaukee Brewers when they dropped four straight but rebounded with a 9-0 shutout of the Chicago Cubs on the final day. The staff finished second in the NL in ERA (3.80) and pitched to a 3.44 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in the second half. Veteran third baseman Matt Carpenter struggled most of the season offensively but hit .302 with a .963 OPS in his final 21 games. Rookie Tommy Edman, who hit .329 with a .921 OPS in 53 games since August 1st with seven homers, 13 doubles and 41 runs scored, can play multiple positions if needed. The Braves won 97 games and a second-consecutive NL East title, but have injury concerns to two of their key pieces. Outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr., who smashed 41 homers while leading the NL in runs scored (127) and stolen bases (37), missed Atlanta’s final four games with a left groin strain, while first baseman Freddie Freeman hit just .111 with a .406 OPS in his final 12 games while battling a bone spur in his right elbow. Both are expected to be ready for Game 1. Atlanta won the season series 4-2 with all but one of the games being decided by three runs or more.
Pitchers: Cardinals – Miles Mikolas (9-14, 4.16 ERA) | Braves – Dallas Keuchel (8-8, 3.75)
Mikolas has pitched much better than his 9-14 record. The Cardinals ended up with a 17-15 mark in his 32 starts and he had a 3.34 ERA with 25 strikeouts over 29.2 innings in his final five outings. He last pitched on September 22nd when he held the Cubs to two runs (one earned) on eight hits over 7.2 innings and is 4-8 with a 5.40 ERA away from home. Mikolas was on the losing end of a 5-2 Atlanta win back on May 24th after he surrendered three runs on seven hits with nine strikeouts and no walks over seven innings.
Keuchel got off to a great start with the Braves after he was signed in June but tailed off at the end. The veteran lefty was 5-0 with a 0.97 ERA over a six-start stretch but allowed 11 earned runs over 16 innings in his last three starts. Keuchel has plenty of postseason experience and is 4-2 with a 3.31 ERA in 10 career playoff appearances (nine starts). He’s allowed 12 runs (11 earned) in two career starts against the Braves, although he hasn’t seen them since August of 2016.
The Braves will be determined to avenge last year’s early playoff exit and prove they are a legitimate World Series contender. The pitching matchup favors Atlanta in a big way in Game 1 and I say the bats come alive against Mikolas, who is terrible on the road.
Check out who Bobby Babowski has on his Free MLB Picks page for Thursday. He finished 135-95 +2686 units in the regular season!
Pick: Braves -132
BETTING TRENDS:
Cardinals are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Cardinals are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Cardinals are 4-0 in their last 4 Thursday games.
Cardinals are 5-1 in their last 6 games following a win.
Cardinals are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series.
Cardinals are 6-2 in their last 8 road games.
Cardinals are 14-5 in their last 19 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Cardinals are 8-3 in their last 11 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Cardinals are 13-5 in their last 18 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Cardinals are 5-2 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Cardinals are 11-5 in their last 16 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Cardinals are 35-16 in their last 51 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Cardinals are 15-7 in their last 22 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Cardinals are 6-15 in their last 21 games following an off day.
Cardinals are 1-4 in their last 5 overall.
Cardinals are 1-4 in their last 5 games on grass.
Cardinals are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Cardinals are 1-6 in their last 7 playoff games.
Cardinals are 0-6 in their last 6 playoff road games.
Cardinals are 6-1 in Mikolas’ last 7 Thursday starts.
Cardinals are 6-2 in Mikolas’ last 8 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Cardinals are 8-3 in Mikolas’ last 11 starts vs. National League East.
Cardinals are 13-5 in Mikolas’ last 18 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Cardinals are 5-2 in Mikolas’ last 7 starts.
Cardinals are 5-2 in Mikolas’ last 7 starts on grass.
Cardinals are 14-6 in Mikolas’ last 20 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Cardinals are 14-6 in Mikolas’ last 20 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Braves are 7-2 in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Braves are 13-4 in their last 17 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Braves are 9-3 in their last 12 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Braves are 36-15 in their last 51 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Braves are 50-22 in their last 72 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Braves are 36-16 in their last 52 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Braves are 36-16 in their last 52 home games.
Braves are 20-9 in their last 29 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Braves are 2-5 in their last 7 games following a loss.
Braves are 2-5 in their last 7 playoff home games.
Braves are 8-21 in their last 29 playoff games.
Braves are 1-5 in their last 6 overall.
Braves are 1-5 in their last 6 games on grass.
Braves are 1-5 in their last 6 Divisional Playoff games.
Braves are 1-6 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Braves are 5-0 in Keuchel’s last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Braves are 4-1 in Keuchel’s last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
Braves are 5-2 in Keuchel’s last 7 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Braves are 5-2 in Keuchel’s last 7 home starts.
Braves are 1-5 in Keuchel’s last 6 starts during game 1 of a series.
Over is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 on grass.
Over is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 Thursday games.
Over is 3-0-1 in Cardinals last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 4-0-1 in Cardinals last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Over is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 overall.
Over is 7-1 in Cardinals last 8 playoff games.
Under is 6-1-1 in Cardinals last 8 vs. National League East.
Over is 5-1 in Cardinals last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Over is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 during game 1 of a series.
Under is 6-2 in Cardinals last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Under is 10-4-1 in Cardinals last 15 games following an off day.
Over is 5-2 in Cardinals last 7 Divisional Playoff road games.
Over is 20-8-1 in Cardinals last 29 playoff road games.
Under is 28-13-3 in Cardinals last 44 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 35-17-2 in Cardinals last 54 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 41-20-4 in Cardinals last 65 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Over is 3-0-1 in Mikolas’ last 4 Thursday starts.
Under is 9-0-2 in Mikolas’ last 11 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 5-0-1 in Mikolas’ last 6 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 5-1-1 in Mikolas’ last 7 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 5-1-1 in Mikolas’ last 7 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 4-1-1 in Mikolas’ last 6 starts vs. National League East.
Under is 7-2 in Mikolas’ last 9 starts during game 1 of a series.
Under is 6-2-2 in Mikolas’ last 10 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 5-2-1 in Mikolas’ last 8 road starts.
Under is 16-7-3 in Mikolas’ last 26 starts on grass.
Under is 16-7-3 in Mikolas’ last 26 starts overall.
Under is 9-4-1 in Mikolas’ last 14 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Over is 4-0-1 in Braves last 5 playoff home games.
Over is 3-0-1 in Braves last 4 Divisional Playoff home games.
Under is 5-1-1 in Braves last 7 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Braves last 5 games following a loss.
Under is 7-2 in Braves last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 7-2 in Braves last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Under is 21-6-2 in Braves last 29 during game 1 of a series.
Under is 9-3 in Braves last 12 games following an off day.
Under is 9-3 in Braves last 12 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 6-2-1 in Braves last 9 playoff games.
Over is 8-3 in Braves last 11 Thursday games.
Under is 13-5-1 in Braves last 19 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 13-5-1 in Braves last 19 Divisional Playoff games.
Under is 23-9-1 in Braves last 33 home games.
Under is 5-2 in Braves last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 3-0-1 in Keuchel’s last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 9-0-1 in Keuchel’s last 10 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 8-1 in Keuchel’s last 9 starts during game 1 of a series.
Under is 6-1-1 in Keuchel’s last 8 starts with 5 days of rest.
Under is 6-1 in Keuchel’s last 7 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Under is 15-3-1 in Keuchel’s last 19 starts on grass.
Under is 15-3-1 in Keuchel’s last 19 starts overall.
Under is 5-1-1 in Keuchel’s last 7 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 9-2 in Keuchel’s last 11 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 4-1-1 in Keuchel’s last 6 home starts.
Under is 7-3 in Keuchel’s last 10 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Atlanta.
Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Cardinals are 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in Atlanta.
Cardinals are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings.
