California vs Oregon Trends and Free Pick [10/6/11]

California (3-1, 1-1) at Oregon (3-1, 1-0)
When: Thursday, October 6th, 2011
Where: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, Oregon
Time: 9:00 ET

The point spread for Thursday Night’s ESPN Pac 12 game between the California Golden Bears and Oregon Ducks opened up at -24 in favor of the Ducks at Bodog Sportsbook on Monday afternoon. The line has not moved as of Tuesday morning. Bodog hasn’t released a total, but most books have it set at 63. Right now, 69% of the betting public are on the Ducks. To help you better decide who to bet, take a look at these trends for tonight.

Golden Bears are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 road games.

Golden Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Ducks are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 home games.

Ducks are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite.

Under is 4-1 in Golden Bears last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Under is 13-4 in Golden Bears last 17 games as an underdog.

Over is 9-3 in Ducks last 12 vs. a team with a winning record.

Over is 14-5-1 in Ducks last 20 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.

Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

My Prediction: Cal’s tough run defense comes to Eugene in hopes of slowing down the high powered Ducks offense. The Bears rank 9th in the Nation allowing only 78 yards per game on the ground. Problem is, the Ducks average almost 300 yards per game on the ground, so we’ll see who wins that battle. Last year, Cal held Oregon to a season low 15 points, but couldn’t pull out the victory losing 15-13. The Ducks only managed 165 yards on 53 attempts. If Cal can do the same thing this year, they should have no problem covering the spread. I don’t like Cal’s 1-7 ATS record in their last 8 road games, but I’m going to put a small play on them.

Cal +24

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