Milwaukee (2-3) at Toronto (3-2)
When: Saturday, May 25th, 2019
Where: Scotiabank Arena,
Time: 8:30 ET | TV: TNT
Opening Odds: Pickem/214
Momentum has clearly turned in the Eastern Conference Finals and the Toronto Raptors are one win away from the franchise’s first ever trip to the NBA Finals. After dropping the first two games in Milwaukee, the Raptors have seized control of the series by taking the next three including a 105-99 road win on Thursday and can now clinch at home. The Raptors won the game despite being outshot by Milwaukee 41.9 percent to 36.9, but the differences were found elsewhere. Toronto made eight more 3-pointers, 12 more free throws, and turned the ball over just six times. Reserve guard Fred VanVleet finally came alive with 21 points on 7-of-9 shooting from 3-point territory and is 10-for-12 from long range over the last two games after being 2-for-11 over the first three games. Star small forward Kawhi Leonard poured in 35 points – 15 in the fourth quarter – for his fourth 30-point outing of the series. Milwaukee star Giannis Antetokounmpo, who was hounded all night long, is not about to throw in the towel. “I’m (ticked), I’m not going to lie to you,” Antetokounmpo said. “We’ve got two more games to go and we can do this. … We’re the best team in the league, man. We’re not going to fold. We’re going to go and give everything we’ve got. We’re not going to go there and even (if) they set a great tone and come out and hit us in the mouth first — we can’t fold.” If the Bucks can snap their longest losing streak of the season, Game 7 will be back in Milwaukee on Monday night.
Antetokounmpo scored 24 points to lead the Bucks, but pulled down just six rebounds after averaging 16 over the first four games. Eric Bledsoe had a series-best 20 points, while Malcolm Brogdon added 18 points, 11 rebounds, and six assists in Game 5. Brook Lopez contributed 16 points, George Hill had 12 points, and Khris Middleton had six points on 2-of-9 shooting but managed to record a double-double with 10 rebounds and 10 assists. Milwaukee is 31-16 away from home including the postseason and 28-17-2 against the spread.
Starting point guard Kyle Lowry was just 4-of-11 shooting but scored 17 points and is having a much better series than he did against Philadelphia in the previous round, averaging 19.6 against the Bucks. Leonard’s 35 points included five 3-pointers – the third time this postseason he’s done so. Power forward Pascal Siakam had his second double-double of the series in Game 5 (14 points, 13 rebounds) and is averaging 13.8 points and seven rebounds.
Experience seems to be coming into play this series and Toronto clearly has the advantage. The Raptors are tying up Giannis in the paint and Milwaukee is failing to knock down the open looks, which can’t keep happening if the Bucks want to force a Game 7. I’m going to take the team with the momentum and ride the Raptors at home.
Pick: Raptors -2.5
Bucks are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games following a straight up loss.
Bucks are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Bucks are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games following a ATS loss.
Bucks are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Bucks are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 road games.
Bucks are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
Bucks are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games playing on 1 days rest.
Bucks are 37-16-2 ATS in their last 55 vs. Eastern Conference.
Raptors are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games.
Raptors are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games playing on 1 days rest.
Raptors are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Raptors are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
Raptors are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 Saturday games.
Raptors are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 9-1 in Bucks last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Over is 8-1 in Bucks last 9 road games.
Over is 14-3 in Bucks last 17 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 7-2 in Bucks last 9 games playing on 1 days rest.
Over is 6-2 in Bucks last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Over is 5-2 in Bucks last 7 Conference Finals games.
Over is 35-15-1 in Bucks last 51 Saturday games.
Under is 14-6 in Bucks last 20 games following a straight up loss.
Over is 29-13 in Bucks last 42 vs. NBA Atlantic.
Over is 5-1 in Raptors last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.
Under is 4-1 in Raptors last 5 Saturday games.
Over is 4-1-1 in Raptors last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 4-1 in Raptors last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Over is 5-2 in Raptors last 7 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in Raptors last 7 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Over is 7-3 in Raptors last 10 vs. NBA Central.
Under is 9-4-1 in Raptors last 14 games following a straight up win.
Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Toronto.
Underdog is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.