Milwaukee (3-3) at Boston (3-3)
When: Saturday, April 28th 2018
Where: TD Garden, Boston, MA
Time: 8:00 ET | TV: TNT
Opening Odds: Boston -4.5/196.5
The Philadelphia 76ers are resting up at home while the Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics go the distance in their best-of-seven first round series. The seventh and final game will take place on Saturday night at TD Garden after Milwaukee extended the series with a 97-86 home win in Game 6. The road team has failed to win a game in this series and Milwaukee is 0-6 all-time on the road in a Game 7, while the Celtics are 19-4 at home in such instances. Giannis Antetokounmpo led the way with 31 points and 14 rebounds, while Khris Middleton and Malcolm Brogdon each scored 16 and both Jabari Parker and Eric Bledsoe finished with nine for Milwaukee, which bounced back from a 92-87 loss in Boston on Tuesday in Game 5. Jayson Tatum had 22 points and Terry Rozier contributed 18 with seven rebounds and five assists for the Celtics, but Boston fell behind by 14 in the third quarter before making a run, and then running out of gas. Jaylen Brown scored 14 points, Marcus Morris added 12 and Al Horford totaled 10 points and 10 rebounds for Boston. Marcus Smart appeared to hurt his right hand for Boston after being fouled by Thon Maker with 4:17 to play in the first quarter. It was Smart’s second game back from right thumb surgery that sidelined him for the last 15 regular-season games and the first four playoff games. However, Smart remained in the game and finished with six points in 26 minutes. Boston won its three previous home games in the series by an average of 8.3 points.
Antetokounmpo has scored 30 or more points in three games this series and was much more aggressive on Thursday after he took just 10 shots in a Game 5 loss in Boston. The play of Antetokounmpo (26.3 points, 9.7 rebounds) and Middleton (23.5 average) are carrying this team and could use a third guy to step up with a big time Game 7 performance like Bledsoe (12 points per game), Parker (10.2) or Brogdon (9.8). Center John Henson (back) will likely miss his fifth straight game.
Jaylen Brown (20.5) is one of five Celtics averaging in double digits in the series with Horford (16.8 points, 8.8 rebounds), Rozier (16.2), Tatum (14.7) and Morris (13.8) being the others. Morris (thigh) was injured in Game 6, but insists he is fine for the series finale. The Celtics received just 24 points off the bench in Game 6 with Smart and Morris accounting for 20.
I really want to take Milwaukee here, but the home team in this series – as with most of these first round series – are not only winning, but they’re covering. I expect the Greek Freak and Middleton to have big games, but I don’t see a third person stepping up. Boston has been getting contributions from more players and will ultimately win this game.
Pick: Celtics -4.5
- Bucks are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS win.
- Bucks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
- Bucks are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 vs. Eastern Conference.
- Bucks are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. NBA Atlantic.
- Bucks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
- Bucks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
- Bucks are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 Conference Quarterfinals games.
- Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
- Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.
- Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.
- Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
- Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.
- Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Celtics are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss.
- Celtics are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss.
- Celtics are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Conference Quarterfinals games.
- Celtics are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Central.
- Celtics are 39-15 ATS in their last 54 Saturday games.
- Celtics are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
- Celtics are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. Eastern Conference.
- Celtics are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games playing on 1 days rest.
- Celtics are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
- Over is 4-0 in Bucks last 4 Saturday games.
- Over is 7-1 in Bucks last 8 road games.
- Over is 6-1 in Bucks last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 6-1 in Bucks last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Over is 11-2 in Bucks last 13 vs. NBA Atlantic.
- Over is 5-1 in Bucks last 6 games following a ATS win.
- Over is 13-3 in Bucks last 16 vs. Eastern Conference.
- Over is 4-1 in Bucks last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.
- Over is 14-4 in Bucks last 18 games playing on 1 days rest.
- Over is 7-2 in Bucks last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
- Over is 20-6 in Bucks last 26 overall.
- Over is 9-3 in Bucks last 12 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 6-2 in Bucks last 8 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
- Over is 4-0 in Celtics last 4 games following a ATS loss.
- Over is 9-1 in Celtics last 10 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.
- Over is 6-1 in Celtics last 7 home games.
- Over is 14-3 in Celtics last 17 Saturday games.
- Over is 8-2 in Celtics last 10 overall.
- Over is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 games following a straight up loss.
- Over is 8-2 in Celtics last 10 vs. Eastern Conference.
- Over is 6-2 in Celtics last 8 vs. NBA Central.
- Over is 6-2-1 in Celtics last 9 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
- Over is 39-15-1 in Celtics last 55 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Over is 5-2 in Celtics last 7 games playing on 1 days rest.
- Over is 10-2-1 in the last 13 meetings in Boston.
- Favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
- Home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
- Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
- Bucks are 2-7 ATS in the last 9 meetings.
- Bucks are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Boston.
