Cleveland (2-4) at New England (7-0)
When: Sunday, October 27th, 2019
Where: Gillette Stadium,
Foxborough, MA
Time: 4:25 ET | TV: CBS
Opening Odds: New England -10.5/46.5
Bash the New England Patriots’ schedule all you want, but this isn’t College Football where you can pick and choose some of the teams you want to play. The Patriots are taking full advantage of a soft schedule and completely dominating their competition to the tune of a +175 point differential. The 33-0 win over the New York Jets was their second shutout of the season and they have a chance to join the 1962 Green Bay Packers as the only teams to average more than 30 points and allow fewer than 10 through the first eight games of the season. Including the postseason, the Patriots are riding a 19-game home win streak and come into Sunday’s contest with the Cleveland Browns as 13-point favorites. The total is currently 47.5, which seems high considering this Patriots team has only given up a total of 48 points this entire season. The Browns have not had the season most experts and Cleveland fans had hoped for and had an extra week to lick their wounds from a tough 32-28 home loss to the Seattle Seahawks and are just 2-4 ATS. Baker Mayfield was intercepted three times in that game and has 11 on the season. It’s a big game for the Browns, who trail Baltimore by 2.5 games in the AFC North. The Patriots easily covered as 10-point favorites the last time these teams met in 2016 – a 33-13 New England romp in Cleveland.
Mayfield came out of the Seattle game with a minor hip injury in Week 6, but head coach Freddie Kitchens has said that he should be ready to go on Sunday. Mayfield threw for nearly twice as many touchdowns as interceptions (27 to 14) during his rookie season, but his numbers have been reversed with just five scoring strikes and 11 picks, leading bettors away from a team that was favored to win the division. Odell Beckham, Jr. has only one touchdown so far this season, while leading receiver in yardage – 439 yards – Jarvis Landry has not reached the end zone. About the only offense Cleveland is getting is from running back Nick Chubb, who has 374 yards and five touchdowns over the past three games. The defense is getting after the quarterback and are sixth against the pass, but are 30th against the run (154.0).
This is the first 7-0 start for New England since the 2015 season and they’re doing it with a remarkable defense that has allowed the fewest points in the league, and also leads the NFL in interceptions and takeaways. The big news in Boston this week is the arrival their newest offensive weapon – Mohamed Sanu, who was acquired via a trade with the Atlanta Falcons. He replaces fellow wideout Josh Gordon (knee) who went on injured reserve and could be waived once healthy. Sanu had 33 catches this season and averaged 64 receptions over the previous three years with Atlanta. Tom Brady has 11 touchdowns and four interceptions on the season, but all four of those picks have come in the last four weeks. Running Sony Michel rushed for three scores last week but has yet to eclipse 100 yards in a game. The Patriots will be at Baltimore next Sunday night before entering their bye week.
Look, we know the Patriots are the better team and will probably win this game, but they haven’t played the toughest schedule either. Cleveland isn’t that great, but they still have playmakers and are coming off a much-needed bye week. I think the Browns play their best game of the year and keep it close.
Pick: Browns +13 (More Week 8 Free Picks)
Browns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Browns are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf.
Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Browns are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss.
Browns are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Browns are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Browns are 12-29-1 ATS in their last 42 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Browns are 5-20-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Browns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Browns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in October.
Browns are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a bye week.
Browns are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 8.
Patriots are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 8.
Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.
Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf.
Patriots are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Patriots are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Patriots are 21-6 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Patriots are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC.
Patriots are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Patriots are 41-15-2 ATS in their last 58 games in October.
Patriots are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
Patriots are 26-10-1 ATS in their last 37 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Patriots are 38-15 ATS in their last 53 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Patriots are 41-17-2 ATS in their last 60 home games.
Patriots are 36-15 ATS in their last 51 games following a straight up win.
Patriots are 45-19 ATS in their last 64 games overall.
Patriots are 36-16 ATS in their last 52 games following a ATS win.
Patriots are 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 4-0 in Browns last 4 games in Week 8.
Under is 6-1 in Browns last 7 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in Browns last 6 games following a bye week.
Over is 4-1 in Browns last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 3-1-1 in Browns last 5 vs. AFC.
Over is 8-3 in Browns last 11 games on fieldturf.
Under is 20-8 in Browns last 28 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in Browns last 7 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in Browns last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Under is 7-0 in Patriots last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 vs. AFC.
Under is 6-2 in Patriots last 8 games overall.
Under is 19-7 in Patriots last 26 vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 5-2 in Patriots last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Patriots last 7 games following a straight up win.
Over is 5-2 in Patriots last 7 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 7-3 in Patriots last 10 games on fieldturf.
Over is 7-3 in Patriots last 10 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.
Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Favorite is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Browns are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Browns are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in New England.
