Milwaukee (45-39) at Cincinnati (38-43)
When: Monday, July 1st, 2019
Where: Great American Ballpark,
Cincinnati, Ohio
Time: 7:10 ET | TV: FS Ohio,
FS Wisconsin
Opening Odds: Cincinnati -106/10.5
The Cincinnati Reds made up some ground this past weekend in the National League Central by winning a series against the first place team and now set their sights on the co-leaders this week. The Reds open a four-game series at home with the Milwaukee Brewers, who were helped by Cincinnati taking two of three from the Chicago Cubs. The NL Central is very tight as we enter the final week before the All-Star Break, with the last place Reds only 5.5 games back of both Milwaukee and Chicago. Cincinnati had lost four in a row before taking down the Cubs and will turn to Tyler Mahle to keep the roll going. Third baseman Eugenio Suarez is 4-for-8 with a home run and three RBI in his last two games after an 11-for-80 stretch. Milwaukee is coming off a 5-5 homestand against three teams with losing records by winning three of its last four but scored only seven runs in taking two of three from the Pittsburgh Pirates. Eric Thames hit a tiebreaking solo homer in the eighth inning and is 6-for-12 with two home runs, a triple, three doubles and four RBI in his last four games. Outfielder Christian Yelich is just 4-for-29 with no homers, one RBI and nine strikeouts over his last eight games. The Brewers hold a 6-3 edge in the season series.
Pitchers: Brewers – Adrian Houser (2-2, 2.94 ERA) | Reds – Tyler Mahle (2-8, 4.35)
Adrian Houser will make his fourth start of the season and has been much more effective out of the bullpen. He will serve as the opener for the second time in less than a week after he was tagged for three runs on four hits and three walks over two innings against Seattle on Wednesday. In relief, Houser has allowed only two runs while striking out 27 across 21.1 innings in his last 11 outings out of the pen. He’s worked a total of three scoreless innings out of the bullpen versus the Reds this season.
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Mahle is coming off one of his shorter outings of the season after allowing two home runs among four runs and six hits in five innings last Wednesday at the Los Angeles Angels. The good news for Cincinnati is that Mahle has been very good at home, posting a 2.96 ERA in five starts while holding opponents to a .194 batting average. He has a 2.53 ERA and 18 strikeouts in 10.2 innings career versus the Brewers.
I like the Reds and Mahle at home here. He has a sub-3.00 ERA there and the Reds are 4-1 in his five turns. Milwaukee is really struggling to score some runs and are hitting just .224 in their last 10 games.
Check out who Bobby Babowski has on his Free MLB Picks page for Monday. He is 86-58 +1853 units on the season after a 6-2 run!
Pick: Reds -104
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BETTING TRENDS:
Brewers are 7-1 in their last 8 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. National League Central.
Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Brewers are 19-7 in their last 26 Monday games.
Brewers are 39-19 in their last 58 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Brewers are 2-5 in their last 7 games following a win.
Brewers are 2-5 in their last 7 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Brewers are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Brewers are 1-5 in their last 6 road games.
Brewers are 0-6 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series.
Reds are 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Reds are 6-1 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Reds are 6-1 in their last 7 home games.
Reds are 4-1 in their last 5 Monday games.
Reds are 8-3 in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.
Reds are 5-2 in their last 7 games following a win.
Reds are 55-113 in their last 168 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Reds are 17-35 in their last 52 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Reds are 2-5 in their last 7 overall.
Reds are 2-5 in their last 7 games on grass.
Reds are 2-6 in their last 8 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Reds are 0-4 in their last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Reds are 4-1 in Mahle’s last 5 home starts.
Reds are 2-6 in Mahle’s last 8 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Reds are 5-16 in Mahle’s last 21 starts.
Reds are 5-16 in Mahle’s last 21 starts on grass.
Reds are 1-4 in Mahle’s last 5 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Reds are 2-8 in Mahle’s last 10 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Reds are 1-8 in Mahle’s last 9 starts during game 1 of a series.
Reds are 0-4 in Mahle’s last 4 starts vs. National League Central.
Reds are 0-6 in Mahle’s last 6 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 5-0 in Brewers last 5 overall.
Under is 5-0 in Brewers last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 5-0 in Brewers last 5 on grass.
Under is 4-0 in Brewers last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 5-1-1 in Brewers last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 3-1-1 in Brewers last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 3-1-2 in Brewers last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 3-1-1 in Brewers last 5 during game 1 of a series.
Under is 14-5 in Brewers last 19 Monday games.
Over is 15-6-1 in Brewers last 22 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 20-8-1 in Brewers last 29 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 12-5-1 in Brewers last 18 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 7-3-2 in Brewers last 12 road games.
Under is 5-1 in Reds last 6 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Reds last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 10-2 in Reds last 12 games following a win.
Under is 5-1 in Reds last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 5-1 in Reds last 6 home games.
Under is 13-4 in Reds last 17 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 6-2 in Reds last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Over is 3-1-1 in Reds last 5 Monday games.
Under is 11-4-1 in Reds last 16 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Under is 23-9 in Reds last 32 during game 1 of a series.
Under is 41-18-3 in Reds last 62 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 35-16 in Reds last 51 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 65-30-3 in Reds last 98 overall.
Under is 65-30-3 in Reds last 98 on grass.
Under is 4-0 in Mahle’s last 4 starts on grass.
Under is 3-0-1 in Mahle’s last 4 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Mahle’s last 4 starts overall.
Under is 5-1 in Mahle’s last 6 starts during game 1 of a series.
Under is 5-1 in Mahle’s last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Under is 5-1-1 in Mahle’s last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-1-1 in Mahle’s last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
Under is 4-1 in Mahle’s last 5 home starts.
Under is 4-1 in Mahle’s last 5 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 10-3-1 in Mahle’s last 14 starts vs. National League Central.
Over is 5-2-1 in Mahle’s last 8 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Cincinnati.
Brewers are 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Cincinnati.
Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Brewers are 10-4 in the last 14 meetings.
