Milwaukee (52-43) at Pittsburgh (45-48)
When: Tuesday, July 18th 2017
Where: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
Time: 7:05 ET | TV: FSN Wisconsin, AT&T SportsNet Pittsburgh
Opening Odds: Pittsburgh -138/8.5
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The suddenly resurgent Pittsburgh Pirates will get a big bat back in the lineup on Tuesday night when they host the Milwaukee Brewers in the second of a four-game series at PNC Park. Starling Marte makes his long-awaited return to the lineup after serving an 80-game suspension for testing positive for the performance-enhancing substance Nandrolone. Marte, suspended on April 18th, will be in left field for the Pirates on Tuesday. Marte batted .390 against Milwaukee during his All-Star season in 2016. Pittsburgh took the opener on Monday 4-2 thanks to a 4-for-4 effort from Gregory Polanco, who also threw a runner out at the plate. Pittsburgh won for the eighth time in 10 games to pull within six of first-place Milwaukee in the National League Central. The Brewers, who have dropped back-to-back games for the first time since June 27-28, will go with the struggling Junior Guerra tonight. Brewers catcher Stephen Vogt will have an MRI exam on his left knee after exiting Monday’s game following a collision at home plate. Brewers 1B Eric Thames, who has cooled-off since a hot start in April, has multiple hits in three of his last five games. Milwaukee’s lead in the Central is down to 3.5 games over the Chicago Cubs.
Pitchers: Brewers – Junior Guerra (1-3, 4.78 ERA) | Pirates – Ivan Nova (9-6, 3.21)
Guerra will go for his first victory since May 31st and will hope to go longer than he has in his last three outings. He took a liner off his shin against the New York Yankees last time out and was out after 3.1 innings. He pitched four innings in each of his previous two starts, allowing a combined 12 runs and 16 hits in a pair of losses. Guerra faced the Pirates on June 21st, giving up three runs and seven hits along with a season-high five walks.
Ivan Nova is back on track (4-2 last six starts) after beating the Chicago Cubs on July 8th, allowing two runs on three hits over 6.2 innings, although he gave up a pair of homers and has surrendered 10 in his last seven outings. Nova was hit for four runs and a season-worst 11 hits over seven innings in a loss at Milwaukee on June 22nd. Travis Shaw is 7-for-10 with two homers and five RBIs against Guerra.
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The Pirates are playing well right now and are still a threat to win the division. They get Marte back and I think he has a big game tonight to help Pittsburgh pull closer to the Brewers in the Central.
Pick: Pirates -150
W/L TRENDS
| Milwaukee |
- Brewers are 5-1 in their last 6 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Brewers are 11-4 in their last 15 overall.
- Brewers are 11-4 in their last 15 games on grass.
- Brewers are 8-3 in their last 11 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Brewers are 5-11 in their last 16 during game 2 of a series.
- Brewers are 32-76 in their last 108 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Brewers are 2-5 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Brewers are 3-8 in their last 11 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Brewers are 5-1 in Guerra’s last 6 starts vs. National League Central.
- Brewers are 6-2 in Guerra’s last 8 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Brewers are 11-4 in Guerra’s last 15 road starts.
- Brewers are 10-4 in Guerra’s last 14 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
|
| Pittsburgh |
- Pirates are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. National League Central.
- Pirates are 5-1 in their last 6 overall.
- Pirates are 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Pirates are 5-1 in their last 6 games on grass.
- Pirates are 7-2 in their last 9 during game 2 of a series.
- Pirates are 6-2 in their last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Pirates are 8-3 in their last 11 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Pirates are 5-2 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Pirates are 5-2 in their last 7 games following a win.
- Pirates are 4-10 in their last 14 Tuesday games.
- Pirates are 5-1 in Nova’s last 6 home starts.
- Pirates are 4-1 in Nova’s last 5 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Pirates are 4-1 in Nova’s last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Pirates are 5-2 in Nova’s last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Pirates are 2-5 in Nova’s last 8 starts vs. National League Central.
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OU TRENDS
| Milwaukee |
- Under is 7-1 in Brewers last 8 games following a loss.
- Under is 6-1 in Brewers last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-1 in Brewers last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 5-1 in Brewers last 6 overall.
- Under is 5-1 in Brewers last 6 on grass.
- Under is 5-1 in Brewers last 6 during game 2 of a series.
- Under is 4-1 in Brewers last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 5-2 in Brewers last 7 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 7-0-1 in Guerra’s last 8 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 5-1 in Guerra’s last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-1 in Guerra’s last 5 starts on grass.
- Over is 4-1 in Guerra’s last 5 starts overall.
- Under is 7-2 in Guerra’s last 9 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 9-3 in Guerra’s last 12 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 8-3 in Guerra’s last 11 starts vs. National League Central.
|
| Pittsburgh |
- Under is 3-0-1 in Pirates last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Pirates last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-0 in Pirates last 5 during game 2 of a series.
- Under is 9-1-1 in Pirates last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 7-1-1 in Pirates last 9 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Pirates last 7 games following a win.
- Under is 20-5-1 in Pirates last 26 overall.
- Under is 20-5-1 in Pirates last 26 on grass.
- Under is 15-4-2 in Pirates last 21 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Under is 19-6-1 in Pirates last 26 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Pirates last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 15-5-1 in Pirates last 21 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 18-7-2 in Pirates last 27 home games.
- Under is 6-0 in Nova’s last 6 starts on grass.
- Under is 4-0 in Nova’s last 4 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Under is 6-0 in Nova’s last 6 starts overall.
- Under is 4-0 in Nova’s last 4 home starts.
- Under is 5-0 in Nova’s last 5 starts vs. National League Central.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Nova’s last 7 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Nova’s last 5 Tuesday starts.
- Under is 5-2 in Nova’s last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
|
HEAD TO HEAD
- Under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings in Pittsburgh.
- Under is 4-0 in Guerra’s last 4 starts vs. Pirates.
- Under is 18-6-2 in the last 26 meetings.
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