Atlanta (61-43) at Philadelphia (54-49)
When: Saturday, July 27th, 2019
Where: Citizens Bank Park,
Philadelphia, PA
Time: 7:05 ET | TV: FS South, NBC 10
Opening Odds: Atlanta -105/9.5
The Atlanta Braves came into the weekend on a 2-8 skid, but busted-out for nine runs in cooling off the Philadelphia Phillies on Friday, as the two head into Saturday’s middle game of their three-game set. The Phillies had won 15 of their past 25 games, but committed two errors and went just 2-for-8 with runners in scoring position in the 9-2 setback to drop them 6.5 games behind Atlanta in the standings. After a season-opening three-game sweep of the Braves, the Phillies are now just 2-5 against them and most of those losses haven’t been close. Shortstop Jean Segura finished 3-for-5 to give him a team-high nine three-hit games this season. The Braves had scored four runs or less in nine of their previous 10 games before exploding for back-to-back four-run innings to finish with their highest-scoring game since a 12-6 victory over Philadelphia on July 4th. Outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. extended his on-base streak to 30 games with two hits, three RBI and stealing his 10th base in the past 11 games. Catcher Brian McCann launched an upper-deck homer off Jake Arrieta and his 2-for-4 effort raised his average to .387 in his past eight games. Atlanta holds a 5.5 game lead over Washington in the NL East after the Nationals lost to the Dodgers on Friday.
Pitchers: Braves – Max Fried (10-4, 4.08 ERA) | Phillies – Zach Eflin (7-10, 4.25)
The Braves are 6-2 in Max Fried’s last eight starts including a 4-2 win at Milwaukee on July 15th in which the lefty had to leave after five scoreless innings with a blister on his hand. Fried posted a 6.17 ERA during his previous eight starts before shutting down Milwaukee. He’s made one start against the Phillies and allowed five runs on seven hits over 4.2 innings on June 14th.
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Zach Eflin has not looked good in his last five starts with the Phillies losing four of those outings after a 5-1 loss at Pittsburgh last weekend. Eflin has allowed three runs or more in six straight starts including an outing against the Braves on July 4th in which he surrendered seven runs (six earned) on seven hits over three innings and followed that up by allowing seven runs on nine hits across six innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Eflin, who is 5-3 with a 3.88 ERA at home, won his previous three starts against the Braves before the July 4th outing.
I think both pitchers are in trouble here. The Braves broke-out last night and have scored 30 runs against the Phillies in the last three games and have other outings of 15 and 9 against them as well. Fried has struggled most of the season including an outing against Philadelphia last month. I like the over.
Check out who Bobby Babowski has on his Free MLB Picks page for Saturday. He is 98-68 +1893 units on the season after an 12-7 run!
Pick: OVER 10 -110
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BETTING TRENDS:
Braves are 11-3 in their last 14 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Braves are 5-2 in their last 7 road games.
Braves are 5-2 in their last 7 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Braves are 27-11 in their last 38 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Braves are 12-5 in their last 17 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Braves are 24-10 in their last 34 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Braves are 7-3 in their last 10 vs. National League East.
Braves are 9-4 in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Braves are 9-4 in their last 13 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Braves are 2-5 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Braves are 5-0 in Fried’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Braves are 6-1 in Fried’s last 7 road starts.
Braves are 5-1 in Fried’s last 6 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Braves are 5-1 in Fried’s last 6 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Braves are 4-1 in Fried’s last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Braves are 7-2 in Fried’s last 9 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Braves are 9-3 in Fried’s last 12 starts.
Braves are 9-3 in Fried’s last 12 starts on grass.
Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 games following a loss.
Phillies are 6-1 in their last 7 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Phillies are 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Phillies are 4-1 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Phillies are 5-2 in their last 7 overall.
Phillies are 5-2 in their last 7 games on grass.
Phillies are 30-13 in their last 43 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
Phillies are 35-16 in their last 51 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Phillies are 3-7 in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
Phillies are 4-10 in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Phillies are 2-5 in their last 7 during game 2 of a series.
Phillies are 3-10 in their last 13 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Phillies are 0-5 in their last 5 Saturday games.
Phillies are 7-3 in Eflin’s last 10 home starts.
Phillies are 1-4 in Eflin’s last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Phillies are 1-4 in Eflin’s last 5 starts with 6 days of rest.
Phillies are 3-14 in Eflin’s last 17 starts during game 2 of a series.
Phillies are 1-5 in Eflin’s last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Phillies are 1-5 in Eflin’s last 6 Saturday starts.
Phillies are 2-10 in Eflin’s last 12 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Phillies are 1-10 in Eflin’s last 11 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Phillies are 0-4 in Eflin’s last 4 starts.
Phillies are 0-4 in Eflin’s last 4 starts on grass.
Phillies are 0-4 in Eflin’s last 4 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Phillies are 0-5 in Eflin’s last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 13-3 in Braves last 16 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Under is 4-1 in Braves last 5 games following a win.
Over is 3-1-1 in Braves last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 9-3 in Braves last 12 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 8-3 in Braves last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 18-7-2 in Braves last 27 overall.
Under is 18-7-2 in Braves last 27 on grass.
Under is 5-2-1 in Braves last 8 vs. National League East.
Under is 5-2-1 in Braves last 8 during game 2 of a series.
Under is 12-5-1 in Braves last 18 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 5-0-2 in Fried’s last 7 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 4-0 in Fried’s last 4 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 4-1-2 in Fried’s last 7 starts vs. National League East.
Under is 3-1-1 in Fried’s last 5 starts on grass.
Over is 3-1-1 in Fried’s last 5 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 3-1-1 in Fried’s last 5 starts overall.
Over is 10-4 in Fried’s last 14 road starts.
Under is 6-0 in Phillies last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Under is 5-1 in Phillies last 6 overall.
Under is 5-1 in Phillies last 6 on grass.
Over is 4-1 in Phillies last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 4-1 in Phillies last 5 home games.
Under is 4-1 in Phillies last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Over is 4-1 in Phillies last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 12-4 in Phillies last 16 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Over is 9-3 in Phillies last 12 games following a loss.
Under is 8-3 in Phillies last 11 Saturday games.
Over is 17-7 in Phillies last 24 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
Over is 4-1 in Eflin’s last 5 starts on grass.
Over is 4-1 in Eflin’s last 5 starts overall.
Over is 4-1 in Eflin’s last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Eflin’s last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 3-1-1 in Eflin’s last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
Over is 3-1-1 in Eflin’s last 5 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Braves are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
Braves are 1-5 in the last 6 meetings in Philadelphia.
