Atlanta (54-37) at San Diego (45-45)
When: Friday, July 12th, 2019
Where: Petco Park,
San Diego, CA
Time: 10:10 ET | TV: MLB Network
Opening Odds: Atlanta -120/8.5
The Atlanta Braves will resume their drive to another National League East title when they kickoff the second half of the season with a six-game road trip that begins Friday night at the San Diego Padres. Since June 1st, the Braves are 24-10 and have built a six game lead in the division over hard-charging Washington and that run has coincided with moving 21-year old Ronald Acuna Jr. up in the batting order. Acuna is hitting .301 with 14 homers and 47 runs scored in 53 games since being moved to the leadoff spot in the Braves lineup. First baseman Freddie Freeman leads the NL in hits (110) while ranking seventh in average (.309) and on-base percentage (.394), and eighth in homers (23) and slugging percentage (.584). While the Padres and the rest of the NL West have little chance of catching the Los Angeles Dodgers, they are in the thick of the wild card race. San Diego followed a five-game losing streak by winning their final three games of the first half and are only two games behind Philadelphia for the second wild card spot. Last Sunday’s 5-3 win over the Dodgers saw rookie Fernando Tatis Jr. become the youngest Padre (20 years old) to have a multi-homer game and is hitting .327 on the season with 14 dingers. The two teams split a four-game series April 29-May 2 in Atlanta, with the Padres winning the finale 11-2.
Pitchers: Braves – Dallas Keuchel (2-2, 3.60 ERA) | Padres – Dinelson Lamet (0-1, 5.40)
Dallas Keuchel makes his fifth start since signing with Atlanta last month, and went past 100 pitches for the first time is last Sunday’s 4-3 win over Miami. He limited the Marlins to two runs on five hits with one walk in 7.1 innings, throwing 71 of his 108 pitches for strikes. Keuchel has faced the Padres just twice in his career and has allowed two runs and seven hits over 14 innings of work against them.
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Lamet missed all of 2018 after undergoing Tommy John surgery after posting a 7-8 record and 4.57 ERA in 21 starts in 2017. He came back on July 4th and allowed three runs on three hits with seven strikeouts in five innings of a loss to the Dodgers. Lamet gave up 16 runs on 21 hits with 33 strikeouts in 24 innings across six minor-league rehab starts. He pitched seven scoreless innings on June 29th, 2017 with eight strikeouts in a 6-0 win over Atlanta.
I really like this Padres team, but I’m going with Keuchel in this matchup with Lamet. Atlanta has the best road record in the National League and the Padres have lost the last eight games Lamet has started.
Check out who Bobby Babowski has on his Free MLB Picks page for Friday. He is 91-61 +2028 units on the season after a 5-0 run!
Pick: Braves -108
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BETTING TRENDS:
Braves are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. National League West.
Braves are 13-3 in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Braves are 8-2 in their last 10 Friday games.
Braves are 19-7 in their last 26 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Braves are 8-3 in their last 11 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Braves are 7-3 in their last 10 during game 1 of a series.
Braves are 18-8 in their last 26 road games.
Braves are 15-7 in their last 22 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Braves are 36-17 in their last 53 overall.
Braves are 36-17 in their last 53 games on grass.
Braves are 1-9 in their last 10 games following an off day.
Padres are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Padres are 8-1 in their last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.
Padres are 6-1 in their last 7 Friday games.
Padres are 5-1 in their last 6 games following a win.
Padres are 7-2 in their last 9 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
Padres are 16-6 in their last 22 games following an off day.
Padres are 8-3 in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Padres are 17-35 in their last 52 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Padres are 0-4 in their last 4 home games.
Padres are 1-11 in Lamet’s last 12 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Padres are 0-4 in Lamet’s last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Padres are 0-6 in Lamet’s last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Padres are 0-4 in Lamet’s last 4 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Padres are 0-4 in Lamet’s last 4 home starts.
Padres are 0-8 in Lamet’s last 8 starts.
Padres are 0-8 in Lamet’s last 8 starts on grass.
Under is 3-0-2 in Braves last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Under is 7-0 in Braves last 7 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 4-0-1 in Braves last 5 during game 1 of a series.
Under is 4-1-1 in Braves last 6 overall.
Under is 4-1-1 in Braves last 6 on grass.
Under is 4-1 in Braves last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 21-7-2 in Braves last 30 games following an off day.
Over is 6-2 in Braves last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Under is 5-2-1 in Braves last 8 road games.
Over is 15-7-2 in Braves last 24 games following a win.
Under is 4-0 in Keuchel’s last 4 starts on grass.
Under is 4-0 in Keuchel’s last 4 starts overall.
Under is 4-0 in Padres last 4 overall.
Under is 4-0 in Padres last 4 on grass.
Over is 4-0-1 in Padres last 5 home games.
Under is 5-0 in Padres last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-1-2 in Padres last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 4-1-1 in Padres last 6 during game 1 of a series.
Under is 6-2-1 in Padres last 9 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
Under is 3-1-2 in Padres last 6 Friday games.
Under is 3-1-1 in Padres last 5 games following a win.
Over is 6-2-2 in Padres last 10 vs. National League East.
Over is 5-2-3 in Padres last 10 games following an off day.
Under is 4-1 in Lamet’s last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Lamet’s last 5 starts vs. National League East.
Under is 6-2 in Lamet’s last 8 starts on grass.
Under is 6-2 in Lamet’s last 8 starts overall.
Under is 6-2 in Lamet’s last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 5-2 in Lamet’s last 7 home starts.
Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
Braves are 15-7 in the last 22 meetings.
Over is 35-17-3 in the last 55 meetings in San Diego.
Braves are 7-20 in the last 27 meetings in San Diego.
