Atlanta (53-42) at Washington (48-49)
When: Saturday, July 21st 2018
Where: Nationals Park, Washington, DC
Time: 7:05 ET | TV: FS South, MASN2
Opening Odds: Washington -139/8.5
The big story coming out of last night’s Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals contest wasn’t what happened on the field, but what transpired in the Nats’ dugout during the game. Washington starter Stephen Strasburg returned from the disabled list to pitch for the first time since June 8th, but struggled. He gave up six runs on eight hits in 4.2 innings, and then got into a heated discussion with teammate Max Scherzer in the dugout. After Strasburg was pulled, he was greeted at the dugout by Scherzer, where the two exchanged words before both heading down the tunnel toward the locker room. Of course afterwards, neither player would divulge what they talked about, and quite frankly, we don’t need to know. The Braves will enter Saturday’s middle contest of a weekend set looking to capture the series and regain the top spot in National League East. Rookie left fielder Ronald Acuna Jr., batting leadoff for the first time in his young career, finished 3-for-4 with a homer, two stolen bases and three runs scored in an 8-5 Atlanta victory. All-Star second baseman Ozzie Albies, who doubled, stole a base and scored a run, exiting after two innings with right hamstring tightness. Atlanta finished with 12 hits (seven for extra bases) while handing the Nationals their sixth loss in the past nine games. Third baseman Anthony Rendon finished 1-for-4 to extend his hitting streak to nine games and has collected at least one base hit in 26 of his past 30 games. The two youngest players in the majors homered in the series opener – Acuna – and 19-year-old Juan Soto for the Nationals. Washington 1B Ryan Zimmerman was activated from the disabled list and grounded out as a pinch-hitter.
Pitchers: Braves – Sean Newcomb (8-5, 3.51 ERA) | Nationals – Gio Gonzalez (6-6, 3.72)
Sean Newcomb hopes the second half of the season doesn’t start like the first half ended. The lefty lost all three outings entering the break while posting a 9.75 ERA with 12 walks and four homers allowed in 12 innings. Newcomb was on a path to the All-Star game by going 7-1 with a 2.07 ERA in May and June. He is 1-1 with a 5.56 ERA in two starts against Washington this season.
Gio Gonzalez went the other way leading up to the All-Star Break by posting a 3.94 ERA in three July starts after going 0-3 with an 8.44 ERA and six homers allowed in five outings last month. Gonzalez gave up two runs on six hits in six innings in a July 11th loss at Pittsburgh and has not won a game since beating Baltimore on May 28th – a streak of eight consecutive starts. He gave up three runs on five hits with nine strikeouts and no walks in seven innings against Atlanta on June 2nd.
I know Newcomb is struggling, but those two terrific months he had were not a fluke. I think the All-Star Break did him some good and he’ll come out re-focused in the second half. This Washington team is really struggling and now their players are fighting with each other. I like the Braves in this one.
Pick: Braves +125
BETTING TRENDS:
- Braves are 19-7 in their last 26 vs. National League East.
- Braves are 9-4 in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Braves are 9-4 in their last 13 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Braves are 2-5 in their last 7 road games.
- Braves are 2-5 in their last 7 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Braves are 2-7 in their last 9 during game 2 of a series.
- Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Braves are 0-4 in their last 4 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Braves are 4-0 in Newcomb’s last 4 starts vs. National League East.
- Braves are 4-0 in Newcomb’s last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Braves are 6-2 in Newcomb’s last 8 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Braves are 4-10 in Newcomb’s last 14 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Braves are 2-5 in Newcomb’s last 7 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Braves are 4-10 in Newcomb’s last 14 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Braves are 2-6 in Newcomb’s last 8 Saturday starts.
- Braves are 1-4 in Newcomb’s last 5 road starts.
- Braves are 0-5 in Newcomb’s last 5 starts.
- Braves are 0-5 in Newcomb’s last 5 starts on grass.
- Nationals are 10-21 in their last 31 overall.
- Nationals are 4-10 in their last 14 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Nationals are 2-6 in their last 8 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Nationals are 1-4 in their last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Nationals are 1-4 in their last 5 Saturday games.
- Nationals are 3-13 in their last 16 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Nationals are 1-9 in their last 10 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Nationals are 0-4 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Nationals are 0-6 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Nationals are 0-5 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Nationals are 5-0 in Gonzalez’s last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Nationals are 5-0 in Gonzalez’s last 5 starts with 9 or more days of rest.
- Nationals are 6-1 in Gonzalez’s last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Nationals are 6-1 in Gonzalez’s last 7 home starts.
- Nationals are 4-1 in Gonzalez’s last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Nationals are 4-1 in Gonzalez’s last 5 starts vs. National League East.
- Nationals are 4-1 in Gonzalez’s last 5 Saturday starts.
- Nationals are 21-7 in Gonzalez’s last 28 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Nationals are 6-2 in Gonzalez’s last 8 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Nationals are 7-3 in Gonzalez’s last 10 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Nationals are 1-4 in Gonzalez’s last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Nationals are 1-5 in Gonzalez’s last 6 starts.
- Over is 5-0 in Braves last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Over is 4-1 in Braves last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-1 in Braves last 5 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 7-2-1 in Braves last 10 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 16-5 in Braves last 21 road games.
- Under is 6-2 in Braves last 8 vs. National League East.
- Over is 9-3 in Braves last 12 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 11-4-1 in Braves last 16 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 5-2 in Braves last 7 games following a win.
- Over is 5-0 in Newcomb’s last 5 road starts.
- Over is 8-1-1 in Newcomb’s last 10 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Newcomb’s last 7 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Newcomb’s last 5 starts on grass.
- Over is 4-1 in Newcomb’s last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 4-1 in Newcomb’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-1 in Newcomb’s last 5 starts overall.
- Over is 4-1 in Newcomb’s last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 6-2-1 in Newcomb’s last 9 starts vs. National League East.
- Under is 14-6 in Newcomb’s last 20 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Under is 6-1 in Nationals last 7 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Nationals last 5 home games.
- Over is 4-1 in Nationals last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 22-6 in Nationals last 28 during game 2 of a series.
- Under is 7-2 in Nationals last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 20-7 in Nationals last 27 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 40-15-3 in Nationals last 58 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 10-4 in Nationals last 14 Saturday games.
- Over is 5-2 in Nationals last 7 vs. National League East.
- Under is 17-7 in Nationals last 24 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 7-3 in Nationals last 10 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 44-21-4 in Nationals last 69 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 6-1 in Gonzalez’s last 7 starts vs. National League East.
- Under is 13-3 in Gonzalez’s last 16 starts on grass.
- Under is 4-1 in Gonzalez’s last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Under is 4-1 in Gonzalez’s last 5 starts overall.
- Under is 13-4-1 in Gonzalez’s last 18 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Under is 6-2 in Gonzalez’s last 8 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Under is 6-2 in Gonzalez’s last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 7-1-1 in the last 9 meetings.
- Braves are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
- Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Washington.
- Nationals are 6-13 in Gonzalez’s last 19 starts vs. Braves.
- Braves are 10-29 in the last 39 meetings in Washington.
