Atlanta (0-0) at LA Dodgers (0-0)
When: Thursday, October 4th 2018
Where: Dodger Stadium,
Los Angeles, California
Time: 8:37 ET | TV: MLB Network
Opening Odds: Los Angeles -165/7
The Washington Nationals were supposed to own the National League East for the foreseeable future, while the rest of the division was rebuilding, but the Atlanta Braves decided the future was now. The surprising NL East Champs will open the 2018 NLDS against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Thursday night in Game 1 of their best-of-five series. Rookie of the year favorite Ronald Acuna, Jr., and veterans Freddie Freeman and Nick Markakis sparked the Braves to a 90-win season, an 18-victory improvement over 2017, and the Braves matched the Dodgers for best road record in the NL at 47-34. Atlanta will be without a key part of their infield, as SS Dansby Swanson is out with a partially torn ligament in left hand, forcing former Dodgers INF Charlie Culberson into the starting lineup. The Dodgers were one victory away from winning the World Series last Fall and needed a victory over the Colorado Rockies in game 163 to secure another National League West title. L.A. manager Dave Roberts is pushing Clayton Kershaw back to Friday’s Game 2 and will start Hyun-Jin Ryu in the opener, and the Dodgers have a healthy a potent lineup featuring Manny Machado, Justin Turner and breakout player Max Muncy. Los Angeles won the season series 5-2, outscoring the Braves 35-18 in winning twice at home and three times in Atlanta.
Pitchers: Braves – Mike Foltynewicz (13-10, 2.85 ERA) | Dodgers – Hyun-Jin Ryu (7-3, 1.97)
Mike Foltynewicz’s break-out season includes an All-Star appearance and a Game 1 start here on Thursday against the reigning National League Champions. The righty gave up more than two runs only twice while going 6-3 over his last 11 starts and holding opponents to a .529 OPS. Foltynewicz is 1-1 in two career starts against the Dodgers with a victory last season and a loss in 2018. He finished fifth in the NL in hits per nine innings (6.39), sixth in strikeouts (202) and tied for sixth in ERA.
Ryu has been one of the top pitchers in all of baseball since the middle of August, posting a 1.88 ERA with five walks and 53 strikeouts in his last nine games. He was even better in his final three, giving up only one run on 12 hits across 19 innings in winning each outing. Ryu, who did not face Atlanta this season, has pitched in three postseason games but none since 2014, giving up four runs to the Braves in a start in the 2013 NLDS.
I think the Dodgers will ultimately win this series, but the upstart Braves will make it interesting. They have a nice mix of young phenomenal talent with wise veterans and Foltynewicz is ready for the postseason. I’m picking the Braves to steal a game here in L.A. and put the pressure on the Dodgers.
Pick: Braves +160
BETTING TRENDS:
- Braves are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. National League West.
- Braves are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Braves are 6-1 in their last 7 during game 1 of a series.
- Braves are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Braves are 4-1 in their last 5 games following an off day.
- Braves are 10-3 in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Braves are 14-6 in their last 20 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Braves are 2-5 in their last 7 games following a loss.
- Braves are 3-9 in their last 12 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 road games.
- Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 overall.
- Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 games on grass.
- Braves are 1-5 in their last 6 playoff road games.
- Braves are 1-5 in their last 6 Divisional Playoff games.
- Braves are 1-5 in their last 6 Divisional Playoff road games.
- Braves are 1-6 in their last 7 playoff games.
- Braves are 4-1 in Foltynewicz’s last 5 road starts.
- Braves are 5-2 in Foltynewicz’s last 7 Thursday starts.
- Braves are 3-8 in Foltynewicz’s last 11 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Braves are 1-4 in Foltynewicz’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Braves are 2-8 in Foltynewicz’s last 10 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Braves are 1-5 in Foltynewicz’s last 6 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Braves are 1-6 in Foltynewicz’s last 7 starts vs. National League West.
- Dodgers are 7-0 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 Divisional Playoff games.
- Dodgers are 7-0 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Dodgers are 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Dodgers are 6-1 in their last 7 home games.
- Dodgers are 5-1 in their last 6 Thursday games.
- Dodgers are 13-3 in their last 16 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Dodgers are 13-4 in their last 17 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Dodgers are 6-2 in their last 8 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Dodgers are 6-2 in their last 8 playoff home games.
- Dodgers are 27-10 in their last 37 during game 1 of a series.
- Dodgers are 23-9 in their last 32 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Dodgers are 10-4 in their last 14 Divisional Playoff home games.
- Dodgers are 25-10 in their last 35 overall.
- Dodgers are 25-10 in their last 35 games on grass.
- Dodgers are 37-15 in their last 52 games following an off day.
- Dodgers are 7-3 in their last 10 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Dodgers are 103-50 in their last 153 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Dodgers are 61-30 in their last 91 vs. National League East.
- Dodgers are 120-59 in their last 179 games following a win.
- Dodgers are 4-0 in Ryu’s last 4 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Dodgers are 4-1 in Ryu’s last 5 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Dodgers are 4-1 in Ryu’s last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Dodgers are 4-1 in Ryu’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Dodgers are 4-1 in Ryu’s last 5 home starts.
- Dodgers are 10-4 in Ryu’s last 14 starts.
- Dodgers are 10-4 in Ryu’s last 14 starts on grass.
- Dodgers are 7-3 in Ryu’s last 10 Thursday starts.
- Dodgers are 3-8 in Ryu’s last 11 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Over is 4-0 in Braves last 4 games following an off day.
- Over is 4-0 in Braves last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Braves last 4 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in Braves last 4 Divisional Playoff games.
- Over is 5-0 in Braves last 5 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 8-1 in Braves last 9 playoff road games.
- Over is 15-3 in Braves last 18 Divisional Playoff road games.
- Over is 5-1 in Braves last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in Braves last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 13-3 in Braves last 16 playoff games.
- Under is 4-1 in Braves last 5 road games.
- Under is 4-1 in Braves last 5 on grass.
- Over is 8-2 in Braves last 10 games following a loss.
- Under is 4-1 in Braves last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 4-1 in Braves last 5 overall.
- Over is 6-2 in Braves last 8 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 6-2 in Braves last 8 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 20-8-1 in Braves last 29 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 14-6 in Braves last 20 vs. National League West.
- Over is 11-5 in Braves last 16 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Under is 4-0 in Foltynewicz’s last 4 starts vs. National League West.
- Over is 4-0 in Foltynewicz’s last 4 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-1 in Foltynewicz’s last 6 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 5-1 in Foltynewicz’s last 6 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Foltynewicz’s last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Over is 18-7-2 in Foltynewicz’s last 27 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Dodgers last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Dodgers last 4 home games.
- Over is 4-0 in Dodgers last 4 Divisional Playoff home games.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Dodgers last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Dodgers last 5 Thursday games.
- Over is 4-1-2 in Dodgers last 7 games following a win.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Dodgers last 6 playoff home games.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Dodgers last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Dodgers last 6 Divisional Playoff games.
- Over is 4-1-2 in Dodgers last 7 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 17-5-1 in Dodgers last 23 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 16-5-1 in Dodgers last 22 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 6-2-2 in Dodgers last 10 on grass.
- Over is 6-2-2 in Dodgers last 10 overall.
- Over is 3-1-2 in Dodgers last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Dodgers last 5 playoff games.
- Under is 11-4 in Dodgers last 15 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Over is 15-6-1 in Dodgers last 22 vs. National League East.
- Under is 14-6-1 in Dodgers last 21 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 11-5-1 in Dodgers last 17 games following an off day.
- Over is 6-1 in Ryu’s last 7 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Ryu’s last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-1 in Ryu’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-1 in Ryu’s last 5 home starts.
- Over is 5-2 in Ryu’s last 7 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 7-3 in Ryu’s last 10 Thursday starts.
- Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Los Angeles.
- Braves are 10-25 in the last 35 meetings.
- Braves are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings in Los Angeles.
