Atlanta (49-38) at Milwaukee (53-36)
When: Sunday, July 8th 2018
Where: Miller Park, Milwaukee, WI
Time: 2:10 ET | TV: TBS
Opening Odds: Milwaukee -125/9
The Atlanta Braves will conclude an up-and-down 10-game road trip on Sunday afternoon, looking to make it a winning one when they take on the Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park. The Braves began the trek with a sweep of St. Louis and a victory in Yankee Stadium, but dropped their next four games. They halted that streak on Saturday behind Anibal Sanchez and Freddie Freeman in a 5-1 victory that gives Atlanta a chance to go 6-4 on the trip. Freeman broke out of a slump by falling a homer short of the cycle, finishing 3-for-4 with a walk and two runs scored, his first multi-hit game since June 22nd. Freeman had recorded only seven hits in his previous 13 games. The veteran Sanchez limited the Brewers to just a run on two hits through 6.2 innings, while the Braves bullpen gave up just one hit over 2.1 scoreless innings. The Atlanta staff also ended Milwaukee’s streak of consecutive games with a homer at 12. Brewers second baseman Brad Miller finished 1-for-3 with an RBI, giving him a .317 average with eight RBIs in 13 games since being traded from Tampa Bay. Infielder Jonathan Villar came off the bench Saturday and recorded a hit in his only at-bat, giving him four hits in nine at-bats in his past five games, but the Brewers’ offense finished with just four singles. Outfielder Lorenzo Cain, out since June 26th with a left groin strain for Milwaukee, could be activated from the disabled list for the series finale.
Pitchers: Braves – Sean Newcomb (8-3, 3.10 ERA) | Brewers – Junior Guerra (5-5, 2.87)
Sean Newcomb leads the Atlanta staff with eight victories on the season, but is looking to bounce-back from his shortest start of his season Tuesday in New York. Newcomb allowed five runs with five walks in just 2.2 innings to the Yankees and suffered just his third loss. It marked just the fourth time in 17 starts he’s surrendered more than three earned runs. Newcomb will make his first career appearance against Milwaukee.
Junior Guerra has been very impressive this season, allowing three earned runs or fewer in 11 of his 16 starts, but is just .500 at 5-5, as Milwaukee has scored less than three runs a game in his outings. He’s won back-to-back starts after holding Minnesota to two hits with eight strikeouts in five scoreless innings Tuesday. Guerra, who is holding opponents to a .217 batting average, earned a no-decision in his only career appearance against the Braves in 2016.
This wraps-up a great series that we could see again come October. I like both of these pitchers, but Milwaukee is playing a little bit better and have the second-most home victories (29) behind Philadelphia (30).
Pick: Brewers -125
BETTING TRENDS:
- Braves are 7-1 in their last 8 Sunday games.
- Braves are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 4 of a series.
- Braves are 5-1 in their last 6 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Braves are 5-2 in their last 7 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 road games.
- Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 overall.
- Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 games on grass.
- Braves are 4-1 in Newcomb’s last 5 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Braves are 9-4 in Newcomb’s last 13 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Braves are 4-9 in Newcomb’s last 13 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Braves are 3-7 in Newcomb’s last 10 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Braves are 4-11 in Newcomb’s last 15 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Braves are 1-4 in Newcomb’s last 5 starts.
- Braves are 1-4 in Newcomb’s last 5 starts on grass.
- Brewers are 5-1 in their last 6 overall.
- Brewers are 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Brewers are 5-1 in their last 6 games on grass.
- Brewers are 5-1 in their last 6 home games.
- Brewers are 16-5 in their last 21 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Brewers are 46-18 in their last 64 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Brewers are 37-15 in their last 52 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Brewers are 12-5 in their last 17 vs. National League East.
- Brewers are 16-7 in their last 23 games following a loss.
- Brewers are 0-5 in their last 5 Sunday games.
- Brewers are 4-1 in Guerra’s last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Brewers are 17-5 in Guerra’s last 22 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Brewers are 16-5 in Guerra’s last 21 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Brewers are 2-5 in Guerra’s last 7 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Brewers are 1-5 in Guerra’s last 6 Sunday starts.
- Under is 4-0 in Braves last 4 during game 4 of a series.
- Over is 4-1 in Braves last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 14-5 in Braves last 19 road games.
- Over is 8-3 in Braves last 11 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 5-2 in Braves last 7 Sunday games.
- Over is 5-2-1 in Braves last 8 games following a win.
- Over is 5-2 in Braves last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 7-3-1 in Braves last 11 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 9-4 in Braves last 13 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 11-5-1 in Braves last 17 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Newcomb’s last 4 road starts.
- Over is 4-0 in Newcomb’s last 4 starts vs. National League Central.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Newcomb’s last 9 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 5-1 in Newcomb’s last 6 starts on grass.
- Over is 5-1 in Newcomb’s last 6 starts overall.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Newcomb’s last 6 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 5-2-1 in Newcomb’s last 8 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 5-2 in Newcomb’s last 7 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Over is 5-1 in Brewers last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 4-1 in Brewers last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 19-6-1 in Brewers last 26 Sunday games.
- Under is 21-7-1 in Brewers last 29 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 8-3 in Brewers last 11 vs. National League East.
- Under is 8-3 in Brewers last 11 during game 4 of a series.
- Under is 55-22-1 in Brewers last 78 games following a loss.
- Under is 44-18-1 in Brewers last 63 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 7-3-1 in Brewers last 11 overall.
- Over is 7-3-1 in Brewers last 11 on grass.
- Under is 35-15-1 in Brewers last 51 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 49-21-2 in Brewers last 72 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 40-19-1 in Brewers last 60 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Guerra’s last 4 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Under is 4-0 in Guerra’s last 4 starts vs. National League East.
- Under is 13-2 in Guerra’s last 15 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in Guerra’s last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Guerra’s last 7 home starts.
- Under is 14-3 in Guerra’s last 17 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 18-4 in Guerra’s last 22 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 12-3 in Guerra’s last 15 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 7-2 in Guerra’s last 9 starts on grass.
- Under is 7-2 in Guerra’s last 9 starts overall.
- Under is 16-5-1 in Guerra’s last 22 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Milwaukee.
- Under is 13-6-2 in the last 21 meetings.
