Bills vs Titans Preview & Free Pick [October 18th 2021]

Buffalo (4-1) at Tennessee (3-2)
When: Monday, October 18th, 2021
Where: Nissan Stadium,
Nashville, TN
Time: 8:15 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Buffalo -3/53

Two division leaders square off in a Week 6 Monday Night Football matchup as the Tennessee Titans host the surging Buffalo Bills from Nashville. Tennessee owns a comfortable two-game lead in the AFC South with the rest of the division sitting with at least four losses each. The Titans have won three of four overall and the offense is starting to click with at least 24 points in the last four games including a 37-19 win at Jacksonville last Sunday. The receiving corps is getting healthier with Julio Jones back to practice after missing two games with a hamstring injury and A.J. Brown playing despite a hamstring injury.

Tennessee will now face a Buffalo team that leads the NFL in fewest points allowed per game (12.8), yards allowed per game (251.8) and takeaways (15). Buffalo can do some scoring also. They lead the league in scoring at 34.4 ppg while ranking fifth in rushing (140.4) and eighth in total yardage (410.4). Quarterback Josh Allen along with running backs Devin Singletary and Zack Moss give the Bills a solid rushing attack. The Bills are coming off their most impressive win of the season last Sunday night – a 38-20 romp at the Kansas City Chiefs and have already blanked two opponents this year.

The teams met last year during Week 5 in a game postponed to a Tuesday night because of the Titans’ COVID-19 outbreak. The Titans rolled to an easy 42-16 win at home behind three passing touchdowns and a running score by Ryan Tannehill, while Derrick Henry rushed for two more. Henry was held in check for the most part with just 57 yards on 19 carries. Buffalo out-gained the Titans but turned the ball over three times, with Josh Allen picked off twice. The underdog has covered the past six in the series.

The Bills have now been tabbed as Super Bowl favorites on the odds board after their win at Kansas City last Sunday night. It was the team’s fourth straight win by at least 18 points. Allen threw for 315 yards on just 15 completions and ran for 59 yards on 11 carries. Wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders is averaging a career-high 16.9 yards per reception after catching three balls (2 TDs) for 54 yards last week. Dawson Knox recorded 117 receiving yards last week on just three catches and is averaging 14.5 yards per reception. The Bills forced four Chiefs turnovers and the unit ranks third against the run at 78.4 yards per game. Top linebacker Matt Milano missed Week 5 with an injury and is questionable for Week 6. The Bills are 13-3 ATS in their past 16 overall and 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.

Henry recorded his fourth straight 100-yard game Sunday in the win at Jacksonville with 130 yards and three touchdowns. The former Heisman Trophy winner leads the NFL with 640 yards and with seven rushing TDs and could set the league single-season record in both. Henry joined the great Jim Brown as the only players in NFL history to have 100 or more rushing yards and three TDs in multiple games within the first 5 games of the season. Tennessee’s offense ranks 10th in the NFL with 26.4 points per game behind Henry who helps open up the offense for Tannehill. The Titans have struggled defensively at times, allowing 377.4 yards and 26.0 points including allowing Jacksonville to rack up 454 yards. The Titans are 7-2 ATS in their past nine Monday games.

I like the Titans as a sizeable home underdog here. Yes, Buffalo’s defense has been terrific, but I wouldn’t bet against Henry and Tannehill having bad games. I do think those two alone can keep this one close. The Titans have covered seven of nine Monday night games and the underdog in this series has covered six straight.

Pick: Titans +6
Week 6 Staff Selections