Buffalo (9-4) at Pittsburgh (8-5)
When: Sunday, December 15th, 2019
Where: Heinz Field,
Pittsburgh, PA
Time: 8:20 ET | TV: NBC
Opening Odds: Buffalo -1.5/37
The NFL did another nice job this week in flexing-out the Sunday night game from Vikings/Chargers to the Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers. Both of those AFC teams are in great position for a playoff berth with the Bills currently holding down the No. 5 seed at 9-4. Pittsburgh is right behind them at 8-5, but so are the surging Tennessee Titans. We could potentially have a three-way tie by end of day. The Bills are coming off a tough home loss to the Baltimore Ravens last Sunday, but have been excellent on the road this season as they are 5-1 straight up in away games and 5-0-1 against the spread. They’ve also been a great under bet as its cashed all six times that they’ve been a dog. They are 4-1-1 against the spread in those games. Meanwhile, the Steelers are surging with wins in three straight and seven of the last eight games and face a tough stretch to close out the season with trips to New York (Jets) and Baltimore after taking on Buffalo. Pittsburgh has been a strong home team as they are 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS at Heinz Field. They’ve been a home favorite of three or less twice this season and have covered both times. It’s been three years since these teams met, with the Steelers earning a 27-20 road win as 1-point favorites and are 6-1 SU and ATS the last seven times they’ve hosted the Bills.
Bills’ quarterback Josh Allen has been held under 20 completions in six of his last eight games, but the team has been able to run the ball a little bit with Devin Singletary. The Bills rank fifth in the NFL in terms of rushing yards at 135.5 per game. Only six teams average better than their 4.6 yards-per-carry. Allen is making strides in his second season but struggled against a tough defense last week, completing 43.6 percent of his passes in the loss to the Ravens. On defense, the Bills will be focused on stopping the run, which they rank 14th at 105.3 yards a game, but allow an NFL-third-best total yards per contest (296.8) and are second in points allowed (16.3). The Bills will be at New England next week before closing the season at home versus the New York Jets.
The Steelers appeared to be in for a lost season with a 1-4 start and no Ben Roethlisberger, but have turned things around in a big way. Fans can thank the defense for most of it, which is fifth in total yards allowed and sixth in points per game (18.6). They’re allowing a paltry 14.6 points per game over their last five contests and leads the league in sacks and takeaways. Quarterback Devlin “Duck” Hodges became the first undrafted rookie to win his first three starts with last week’s 23-17 win over Arizona. He is completing 71.3 percent of his passes and went 16-of-19 for 152 yards and a touchdown last week. The offense might be better this week with the return of running back James Conner (shoulder) and wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster (concussion), but the latter is not likely.
This should be a great defensive battle with both teams having suspect offenses and solid Ds. I’m going to take the Bills here with the way they’ve been playing on the road and I also give Allen a slight edge over Hodges. The under is probably a good bet also, but this is one of the lowest totals we’ve seen this season.
Pick: Bills +2.5 (More Week 15 Free Picks)
Bills are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Bills are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.
Bills are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog.
Bills are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.
Bills are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.
Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Bills are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Bills are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
Bills are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC.
Bills are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Steelers are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in December.
Steelers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games on grass.
Steelers are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a ATS win.
Steelers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC.
Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Bills last 4 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Bills last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 6-0 in Bills last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 7-1 in Bills last 8 games on grass.
Under is 5-1 in Bills last 6 games overall.
Under is 14-3 in Bills last 17 games as an underdog.
Under is 4-1 in Bills last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 7-2 in Bills last 9 vs. AFC.
Under is 22-7 in Bills last 29 games as a road underdog.
Over is 6-2 in Bills last 8 games in Week 15.
Under is 19-7 in Bills last 26 road games.
Under is 5-2 in Bills last 7 games in December.
Under is 5-0 in Steelers last 5 games overall.
Under is 4-0 in Steelers last 4 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Steelers last 4 games following a straight up win.
Under is 4-0 in Steelers last 4 games on grass.
Under is 5-1 in Steelers last 6 games in December.
Under is 4-1 in Steelers last 5 games as a favorite.
Under is 4-1 in Steelers last 5 games in Week 15.
Over is 13-4 in Steelers last 17 games as a home favorite.
Under is 6-2 in Steelers last 8 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 8-3 in Steelers last 11 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 34-16-1 in Steelers last 51 games following a ATS win.
Under is 36-17 in Steelers last 53 vs. AFC.
Bills are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
