Bills vs Jets NFL Preview & Free Pick [9/11/2023]

Buffalo (0-0) at NY Jets (0-0)
When: Monday, September 11th, 2023
Where: MetLife Stadium,
East Rutherford, NJ

Time: 8:15 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Buffalo -1/47

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When the NFL schedule was released this past Spring, all eyes immediately focused on the Week 1 Monday Night Football matchup. Super Bowl contenders the Buffalo Bills will open the season on the road when they visit Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets. This is one of the most anticipated games on the 2023 schedule. It’s not just Rodgers’ debut with the Jets, but it’s also on 9/11.

Jets fans believe the addition of Rodgers will lead the franchise to its first Super Bowl in over 50 years. Rodgers will have great weapons to throw to along with some old friends as the position has depth. Garrett Wilson, who was the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, has found immediate chemistry with Rodgers. The Jets also signed former Packer receivers Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb, as well as running back Dalvin Cook.

The Bills, who are coming off four consecutive playoff appearances and three straight AFC East titles, are still the favorites in the division, but the gap is closing. Quarterback Josh Allen and the offense are terrific but had trouble against the Jets in two games last season. Allen had 147 passing yards in the Bills’ 20-12 win on Dec. 11 and was sacked eight times with two picks in those two games. The Jets won the first meeting 20-17 and the Under has cashed in four of the last five meetings.

The Bills come into the 2023 with the best spread record (14-6) of any team in the league over the last 20 years. Allen is again among one of the MVP favorites, but needs to stop turning the ball over. He threw 14 interceptions a year ago and lost eight fumbles. Allen is 6-1 SU & ATS in last seven regular-season road prime time games. Running back Devin Singletary is gone so the team will turn to second-year RB James Cook and free-agent addition Damien Harris.

The Bills defense took a blow last year when future Hall of Famer Von Miller seriously injured his knee on Thanksgiving. He will also miss at least the first four games this year being on the PUP list. Buffalo is 20-10-2 ATS on road since 2019, the NFL’s second-best mark. Damar Hamlin might make his triumphant return on Monday after suffering cardiac arrest at Cincinnati last January.

The Jets really struggled offensively last season, losing their final six games and are just 2-16 in their past 18 games vs. the AFC East. The offense will obviously be much better this year with Rodgers and new weapons. Rodgers has won nine-straight Monday Night Football games, tied for the third-longest streak in NFL history by a QB.

The Jets have gone 12 seasons without making the playoffs, the longest active playoff drought in the NFL. The defense, led by cornerback Sauce Gardner, will be one of the best – if not the best – in the entire league.

This is the Jets chance to shine and prove they are a legitimate contender. I’ll back New York in this one not just because of Rodgers under center, but the defense has given Allen all sorts of problems. All eyes will be on Rodgers, but look out for this Jets defense. New York wins a low-scoring affair.

Week 1 NFL Staff Selections

Pick: Jets +2.5