Buffalo (8-3) at Dallas (6-5)
When: Thursday, November 28th, 2019
Where: AT&T Stadium,
Arlington, TX
Time: 4:30 ET | TV: CBS
Opening Odds: Dallas -6.5/45
The Dallas Cowboys are in the middle of a very challenge stretch in their schedule and the NFC East might come down to how they perform against the AFC East. Dallas beat Miami earlier this season, but have lost to the New York Jets, and most recently, the New England Patriots and will host the last of the bunch on Thanksgiving Day – the 8-3 Buffalo Bills. Dallas has been playing almost every Thanksgiving since 1966 and have been pretty successful, going 31-19-1 all-time and beat the Washington Redskins 31-23 last season. The Cowboys have dropped two of three including a 13-9 setback in Foxborough on Sunday and lead the Philadelphia Eagles by just one game in the division. With the wild card virtually out of reach, Dallas and Philly will be playing for that final postseason spot and play each other in Week 16. Buffalo is playing on the holiday for the first time since 1994 when they lost 35-21 in Detroit. That Bills team was coming off four straight Super Bowl appearances – and losses. This will be the Bills’ sixth meeting against the Cowboys since Super Bowl XXVIII in January 1994, which Dallas won 30-13. Buffalo has won and covered their past two games after a 20-3 home win over Denver and trail the Patriots by two games in the AFC East while holding down the top wild card spot. The home team is 4-0-1 ATS in the past five meetings.
Buffalo owns the NFL’s third-ranked defense and limited Denver to just 134 yards in a 20-3 rout on Sunday. Defensive end Shaq Lawson collected two of the four sacks by the Bills, whose 8-3 record is the team’s best since 1996. The Bills have played just two teams that currently have a winning record. Josh Allen threw for two scores and rushed for 56 yards, while rookie Devin Singletary had 106 yards rushing on 21 carries. The ageless Frank Gore had 65 yards on 15 carries and is now third all-time in the NFL with 15,289 rushing yards, passing Hall of Famer Barry Sanders on Sunday. Wide receiver John Brown reeled in his third touchdown reception in two games on Sunday while former Cowboys wideout Cole Beasley led the team with six catches for 76 yards and a score. Buffalo will host the red-hot Ravens next weekend.
Jerry Jones publicly expressed his displeasure with his team’s 13-9 loss at New England on Sunday, meaning Jason Garrett’s job could be in jeopardy by season’s end. Dallas entered with the NFL’s No. 1 offence in terms of yardage but didn’t find the end zone once in the brutal weather. Garrett made the decision to kick a field goal with about six minutes left even though it still would have required a touchdown to win the game. Top receiver Amari Cooper was held without a catch for just the third time in his career and Dallas hasn’t beaten a team with a winning record this year. Dak Prescott (NFL-best 3,433 yards) answered three straight three-touchdown performances with 212 yards while completing a season-worst 57.6 percent versus the Patriots. Ezekiel Elliott recorded 126 scrimmage yards (86 rushing, 40 receiving) last week and boasts 263 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns in two Thanksgiving games.
This should be an interesting game. Buffalo has played just two teams that currently have a winning reacord – 14-7 win at Tennessee and 16-10 loss to New England. Dallas, meanwhile, hasn’t beaten a team with a winning record. This seems like a lot of points to give an 8-3 team, but the Cowboys usually play well on Thanksgiving and so does Elliott. I think the Dallas defense will come up big and the offense will score just enough to win by a touchdown or more.
Pick: Cowboys -6.5 (More Week 13 Free Picks)
Bills are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Bills are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November.
Bills are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
Bills are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Bills are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on fieldturf.
Bills are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Bills are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Bills are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
Bills are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 13.
Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
Cowboys are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in November.
Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
Cowboys are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Cowboys are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Cowboys are 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 5-0 in Bills last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 5-0 in Bills last 5 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 5-0 in Bills last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 5-0 in Bills last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 6-1 in Bills last 7 road games.
Under is 6-1 in Bills last 7 games on fieldturf.
Under is 6-1 in Bills last 7 games following a ATS win.
Under is 5-1 in Bills last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 8-2 in Bills last 10 games following a straight up win.
Under is 4-1 in Bills last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
Under is 8-3 in Bills last 11 games overall.
Under is 5-2 in Bills last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Over is 8-2 in Cowboys last 10 games following a straight up loss.
Over is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 games in Week 13.
Over is 10-4 in Cowboys last 14 games overall.
Over is 5-2 in Cowboys last 7 games on fieldturf.
Over is 7-3 in Cowboys last 10 games in November.
Over is 9-4 in Cowboys last 13 home games.
Home team is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Bills are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
