Futures bets are some of my favorite wagers to place in the preseason, whether it be win totals, division champions or even individual awards such as the league MVP which I am going to talk about today. Of course, it is always tricky because the one variable that we can always equate with the NFL is the injury factor. Everyone is just one step or hit away from being lost for the season and with them goes your wager. While no one can tell you the future, you can certainly educate yourself on how to make the best possible wager. Let’s take a look at the odds for the 2020 season, courtesy of Scoresandstats.com as of 3/18.
History
First things first, no defensive player has won the award since 1986 when Lawrence Taylor took home the award so you don’t have to waste any money on Aaron Donald at (+10000).
Since the year 2000, the award has gone to either a running back or a quarterback but the favorites list reflects that as there is only one defensive player that made the list and only a single wide receiver in Michael Thomas. If Thomas has a magnificent season, the award will most likely go to his quarterback, bye Michael.
Since Adrian Peterson won the award in 2012, the MVP award has gone to a quarterback each and every season. Last season, Christian McCaffrey logged more than 1,300 yards on the ground and another 1,000 yards receiving with 19 total touchdowns and did not win.
Eliminating some options
Due to that last little bit of history regarding McCaffrey, I am eliminating all running backs from my potential wagers. At this point, it is almost a foregone conclusion that a quarterback will win this award unless a running back runs for 2,000 yards which is exactly what Adrian Peterson did in 2012. Peterson is the only non-quarterback to win the award since 2006.
I am also removing Kyler Murray from my list because I don’t think De’Andre Hopkins will make that much of a difference, though he will obviously have a positive impact. Murray did show solid upside in his debut season but he also took 48 sacks and at 5’10, 207 pounds, his long term health and viability is a concern for me. I also don’t expect the Cardinals to be a playoff team, which enters into the equation.
Remove all the rookies. That is just foolish and it’s a trap. We don’t know if Tua is even healthy and if Joe Burrow ends up on the Bengals there is zero chance he will play well enough as a rookie or win enough with the NFL’s possibly worst team to garner even being in the conversation.
Cam Newton, Jamies Winston, Baker Mayfield, Kirk Cousins, and Matt Stafford can all be dispelled as well. Whether it be turnovers, coaching, performance or playing time, all of these options are unlikely.
Ryan Tannehill is a more of a game manager and Derrick Henry is the bell cow in Tennessee, while Sam Darnold talks to ghosts. Both are gone.
The Pick
The three favorites on the list, Mahomes (+600), Jackson (+650) and Wilson (+900) are the three obvious choices and far and away the most likely candidates. My personal preference is Mahomes as he is sure to put up monster numbers with a full season of Tyreek Hill and the fact that Andy Reid will most likely not put him in QB sneak situations any longer.
If Drew Brees (+2200) gets a full season of Alvin Kamara he is worth a sprinkle as is Jimmy G as a long shot at (+4000). Garappollo threw for 4,000 yards and 27 touchdowns last season. If that defense holds up and the Niners run it back at 13-3 again, he will be in the conversation. When betting the NFL MVP; do so at PayPerHead247.com; our favourite site.
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