Chicago (1-2) at Green Bay (2-1)
When: Thursday, September 28th 2017
Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
Time: 8:25 ET | TV: NFL Network
Opening Odds: Green Bay -7/45.5
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The oldest rivalry in the NFL continues this week as the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers kick-off Week 4 on Thursday Night Football from Lambeau Field. The Packers swept the season series last year en route to winning the division title and have been victorious in six of the last seven matchups. It will mark the 195th matchup between Chicago and Green Bay – with the longtime series tied at 93 win apiece with six ties. Both teams are coming off overtime victories in Week 3 with running back Jordan Howard’s 19-yard touchdown run to win the game for Chicago over Pittsburgh, helping them avoid an 0-3 start for third straight season. Green Bay was seconds from back-to-back defeats before Aaron Rodgers tossed a tying touchdown pass to Jordy Nelson, setting up a game-winning field goal in overtime in a 27-24 victory over visiting Cincinnati. Rodgers and Nelson have tormented the Bears in recent years with Rodgers throwing 17 TDs to only one pick in the last six meetings, while Nelson has 34 receptions and four TDs in the last five games against the Bears.
Chicago looks to keep the ground attack going to take pressure off quarterback Mike Glennon, who threw for only 101 yards and a TD on 15-of-22 passing against the Steelers. The Bears rushed for 220 yards last week as Howard, despite dealing with an ailing shoulder, racked-up 138 and two scores while rookie Tarik Cohen had 78 yards on 12 carries. With a banged-up wide receiver corps, Howard and Cohen also led the team with five and four catches, respectively. Cohen has 20 receptions to lead all NFL running backs. Safety Quintin Demps broke his arm in Sunday’s game, a blow for a defense that has only eight interceptions in each of the past two seasons. The Bears will get another prime time game next week as they host the Minnesota Vikings on Monday night (October 9th).
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Rodgers will start the week in second place with 967 yards passing, topping 300 in each of the first three games, although his passer rating is below 100 for only the third time in 10 seasons since he took over as Green Bay’s starter. Rodgers has attempted at least 42 passes in each game behind a suspect and injury-plagued offensive line, among the reasons he has been sacked a league-high 13 times. Running back Ty Montgomery, despite leading the team with 18 receptions, has rushed for only 124 yards in three games, but had a career-best 162 yards and a pair of rushing touchdowns in the last meeting with the Bears. The Packers are eighth in the league, allowing 296.7 yards per game – much better thus far than last year’s numbers. Green Bay will be at Dallas and at Minnesota in the next two weeks.
Green Bay is not a perfect team, but they have less flaws than Chicago does right now. Despite a weak offensive line, Rodgers and company should be able to carve-up the Bears defense and come away with an easy win here. See who Bobby and Reggie like in this week’s edition of our Staff Selections.
Pick: Packers -7
- Bears are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Bears are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
- Bears are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Bears are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
- Bears are 14-37-1 ATS in their last 52 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Bears are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games.
- Bears are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games in September.
- Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games.
- Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
- Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
- Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Packers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win.
- Packers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC.
- Packers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 Thursday games.
- Packers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in September.
- Packers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Packers are 45-22 ATS in their last 67 vs. NFC North.
- Packers are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 5-1 in Bears last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 8-3 in Bears last 11 games in Week 4.
- Under is 5-2 in Bears last 7 games in September.
- Under is 5-2 in Bears last 7 vs. NFC North.
- Over is 27-11 in Bears last 38 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 4-0 in Packers last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-0 in Packers last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 8-1 in Packers last 9 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 8-1 in Packers last 9 vs. NFC.
- Over is 7-1 in Packers last 8 games in Week 4.
- Over is 6-1 in Packers last 7 games on grass.
- Over is 6-1 in Packers last 7 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 13-3 in Packers last 16 games overall.
- Over is 4-1 in Packers last 5 home games.
- Over is 4-1 in Packers last 5 vs. NFC North.
- Over is 4-1 in Packers last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Over is 13-4 in Packers last 17 games in September.
- Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Green Bay.
- Favorite is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 meetings.
- Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
- Bears are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 meetings.
