Baylor (19-8) at TCU (19-8)
When: Monday, February 26th, 2024
Where: Schollmaier Arena,
Fort Worth, TX
Time: 9:00 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: TCU -3/149.5
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The race for seeding in the upcoming Big 12 Conference Tournament is down to the final two weeks and we have a key contest taking place on Monday night. The 11th-ranked Baylor Bears travel to Fort Worth to take on the TCU Horned Frogs. The home team is a 2.5-point favorite in this one with a total of 149.5. Both teams are tied with Texas Tech for fourth place in the conference behind Houston, Iowa State and Kansas.
The Bears are looking to get back on track after back-to-back losses to BYU and No. 2 Houston. In Saturday’s game against the Cougars, Baylor got off to a horrible start before coming back in the second half to send the game to overtime. The Bears ran out of gas an fell 82-76. The two-game skid comes on the heels of Baylor winning five of six. The Bears are 5-4-1 ATS over their last 10 games, while the Over is 6-4 in that stretch.
The Horned Frogs have won three of four, covering the spread in all four. The only loss in that stretch came at Texas Tech by one point. TCU rolled over Cincinnati 75-57 on Saturday behind a stout defense. The Frogs will look to sweep the season series after a wild 105-102 triple overtime triumph in Waco on Jan. 27. The road team has won five of the last six meetings and Baylor is 6-3-1 ATS in the last 10 matchups.
Recent Trends
Horned Frogs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games.
Favorite is 12-4-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings.
Bears are 15-6-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings.
BAYLOR BEARS
Baylor fought hard in the second half against the Cougars on Saturday and got a An Yves Missi layup with four seconds to play in regulation to tie the game at 69. The Bears took their first lead early in OT but couldn’t hold it. Ja’Kobe Walter led the way with 23 points, while RayJ Dennis added 21. Jalen Bridges recorded 17 points and 13 rebounds and Jayden Nunn contributed 11 points. Baylor will host Kansas on Saturday.
TCU HORNED FROGS
TCU converted 40.9 percent from beyond the arc in the win over Cincinnati and shot 14-of-15 from the free throw line. The defense held Cincinnati to 41.5 percent shooting and forced 17 turnovers that TCU converted into 16 points. JaKobe Coles and Emanuel Miller each scored 18 points to lead the team, while TCU held the Bearcats to a season-low offensive output. TCU will travel to BYU on Saturday.
PREDICTION
I’m expecting another offensive display between these two teams like they had last month in Waco. Right now, the Horned Frogs are the hotter team and came up big defensively on Saturday. The favorite has done well in this series, going 12-4-1 ATS in the last 17 matchups. TCU is on a 6-2 ATS run at home and should come up with enough stops late to hold off the Bears.
