Houston (2-2) at NY Yankees (2-2)
When: Wednesday, October 18th 2017
Where: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
Time: 5:05 ET | TV: FOX Sports 1
Opening Odds: Houston -120/8
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With Dallas Keuchel and Justin Verlander sitting in the dugout for Games 3 and 4 of the American League Championship Series, the New York Yankees were able to take advantage of Charlie Morton and Lance McCullers to even their best of seven series up at two apiece. New York rallied for a couple of runs in the seventh and four in the eighth in a epic rally on Tuesday – New York’s 18th victory in their last 21 home games overall. Slugger Aaron Judge, limited to one single in seven at-bats in back-to-back losses at Houston, is 3-for-6 with five RBIs in the two games in the Bronx after beginning the comeback with a solo homer and delivering the game-tying RBI double in the eighth. Judge had that one single at Minute Maid Park against Keuchel, but that was one of just four hits the left-hander allowed in seven scoreless innings of the Game 1 victory. Keuchel is 6-2 with a 1.09 ERA in eight career starts against New York in the regular season and playoffs combined and won his only prior postseason outing at Yankee Stadium with six scoreless innings in the 2015 AL Wild Card game. The Yankees will counter with Masahiro Tanaka, who allowed a pair of runs opposite Keuchel in the series opener. Astros closer Ken Giles, who had a 2.30 ERA and 34 saves during the regular season, has given up five runs in five innings of relief this postseason and took the loss in Game 4.
Pitchers: Astros – Dallas Keuchel (2-0, 0.71 ERA) | Yankees – Masahiro Tanaka (1-1, 1.38)
After Game 1’s triumph, Keuchel is now 4-0 with a 1.69 ERA in five career postseason games (four starts). Both of this year’s playoff outings have taken place at home, but the lefty was not his best away from Minute Maid, going 5-5 with a 4.24 ERA and allowing opponents to produce a .720 OPS, compared to .513 at home. Keuchel’s last appearance away from home in the playoffs was in relief in Game 5 of the ALDS in 2015, when he was tagged for three runs in one inning.
Tanaka was also better this season at home, finishing the regular season by going 5-1 with a 1.29 ERA over a six-start stretch at Yankee Stadium. Tanaka has given up two runs and seven hits – no home runs – over 13 innings this postseason. Carlos Correa and Yuli Gurriel recorded RBI singles in Game 1 against Tanaka, who has received a total of one run of support in his three career playoff starts.
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Keuchel has the Yankees’ number right now and even though he’s not as good on the road, he’s got a lot of confidence. Houston is 4-0 in Keuchel’s last four starts in New York, while the Yankees have lost the last five games Tanaka has started against the Astros. I think the Houston bats wake up today.
Pick: Astros -115
BETTING TRENDS:
- Astros are 10-3 in their last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Astros are 20-6 in their last 26 overall.
- Astros are 20-6 in their last 26 games on grass.
- Astros are 9-3 in their last 12 vs. American League East.
- Astros are 6-2 in their last 8 League Championship games.
- Astros are 8-3 in their last 11 road games.
- Astros are 21-8 in their last 29 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Astros are 33-13 in their last 46 Wednesday games.
- Astros are 5-2 in their last 7 playoff games.
- Astros are 16-7 in their last 23 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Astros are 40-18 in their last 58 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Astros are 83-38 in their last 121 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Astros are 2-6 in their last 8 League Championship road games.
- Astros are 1-4 in their last 5 playoff road games.
- Astros are 4-0 in Keuchel’s last 4 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Astros are 6-1 in Keuchel’s last 7 starts vs. American League East.
- Astros are 11-2 in Keuchel’s last 13 road starts.
- Astros are 12-3 in Keuchel’s last 15 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Astros are 7-2 in Keuchel’s last 9 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Astros are 20-7 in Keuchel’s last 27 starts.
- Astros are 11-4 in Keuchel’s last 15 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Astros are 8-3 in Keuchel’s last 11 Wednesday starts.
- Astros are 60-28 in Keuchel’s last 88 starts on grass.
- Yankees are 4-0 in their last 4 Wednesday games.
- Yankees are 4-0 in their last 4 playoff home games.
- Yankees are 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Yankees are 20-7 in their last 27 home games.
- Yankees are 20-8 in their last 28 games on grass.
- Yankees are 41-17 in their last 58 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Yankees are 21-10 in their last 31 overall.
- Yankees are 1-7 in their last 8 League Championship games.
- Yankees are 5-0 in Tanaka’s last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Yankees are 16-5 in Tanaka’s last 21 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Yankees are 6-2 in Tanaka’s last 8 starts on grass.
- Yankees are 5-2 in Tanaka’s last 7 Wednesday starts.
- Yankees are 39-16 in Tanaka’s last 55 home starts.
- Yankees are 7-3 in Tanaka’s last 10 starts.
- Under is 5-1 in Astros last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-1 in Astros last 5 playoff road games.
- Under is 9-3 in Astros last 12 League Championship games.
- Under is 5-2 in Astros last 7 League Championship road games.
- Over is 20-8-1 in Astros last 29 vs. American League East.
- Over is 12-5 in Astros last 17 road games.
- Under is 4-0 in Keuchel’s last 4 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-1 in Keuchel’s last 6 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Over is 8-2-2 in Keuchel’s last 12 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Under is 4-1 in Keuchel’s last 5 starts vs. American League East.
- Under is 7-2 in Keuchel’s last 9 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-2-1 in Keuchel’s last 8 road starts.
- Over is 11-5-1 in Keuchel’s last 17 Wednesday starts.
- Over is 5-1 in Yankees last 6 League Championship home games.
- Over is 4-1 in Yankees last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Under is 4-1 in Yankees last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 20-8-3 in Yankees last 31 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
- Over is 5-1 in Tanaka’s last 6 Wednesday starts.
- Under is 4-1 in Tanaka’s last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 7-2-1 in Tanaka’s last 10 home starts.
- Under is 6-2 in Tanaka’s last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 19-7 in Tanaka’s last 26 starts vs. American League West.
- Over is 7-3-1 in Tanaka’s last 11 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Astros are 4-0 in Keuchel’s last 4 road starts vs. Yankees.
- Astros are 6-1 in Keuchel’s last 7 starts vs. Yankees.
- Astros are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
- Under is 4-1 in Keuchel’s last 5 starts vs. Yankees.
- Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in New York.
- Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
- Yankees are 0-5 in Tanaka’s last 5 starts vs. Astros.
