Houston (3-1) at NY Yankees (1-3)
When: Friday, October 18th 2019
Where: Yankee Stadium,
Bronx, New York
Time: 7:08 ET | TV: FS1
Opening Odds: Houston -140/8
The Houston Astros have rebounded from a beating in Game 1 of the American League Championship Series to take the next three games with relative ease and are now one win away from their second World Series appearance in three seasons. A pair of three-run homers was all Houston needed, as the Yankees continue to squander chances with runners in scoring position. New York also committed four errors in Thursday’s 8-3 loss and will face an elimination game against Houston’s Justin Verlander. Zack Greinke allowed a bases-loaded walk to Brett Gardner and the Yankees appeared poised for a big first inning as Houston began getting Brad Peacock warmed up. After a mound visit from pitching coach Brent Strom, Greinke struck out Gary Sanchez on three pitches. That began a stretch where Greinke retired 11 of 12 hitters, but ran into trouble in the fifth by allowing a single to LeMahieu and walking Aaron Judge, and was replaced by Ryan Pressly, who struck out Gleyber Torres and Edwin Encarnacion with the bases loaded. New York slugger Giancarlo Stanton (quadriceps) has missed the last three games but could serve as DH in Friday’s Game 5.
Pitchers: Astros – Justin Verlander (1-1, 3.12 ERA) | Yankees – James Paxton (0-0, 5.14)
Verlander rebounded from a rough start at Tampa Bay in the ALDS to limit the Yankees to two runs and five hits over 6.2 innings to help Houston even the series up in Game 2. After seven scoreless innings of one-hit ball in Game 1 of the ALDS, Verlander has issued five walks and three homers in his last two starts, but he’s one very few pitchers you want on the mound in a potential series clinching game. He went 1-0 with a 4.15 ERA in two regular-season starts against the Yankees and struck out 15 over 13 innings.
Paxton was lifted early in Game 2 against Verlander after allowing one run and four hits in 2.1 innings and reached just 51 pitches. He pitched five strong innings against the Astros at Yankee Stadium back in June, allowing one run over five innings, while striking out seven. New York had won 12 games in a row Paxton started until the Game 2 setback.
This series is all but over and the Astros would love to end this thing now and prepare for the Washington Nationals next week. New York is just having too many problems hitting with men in scoring position and they my not get many opportunities on Friday against Verlander.
Check out who Bobby Babowski has on his Free MLB Picks page for Friday. He finished 135-95 +2686 units in the regular season!
Pick: Astros -145
BETTING TRENDS:
Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. American League East.
Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 playoff games.
Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Astros are 43-11 in their last 54 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Astros are 40-11 in their last 51 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Astros are 10-3 in their last 13 road games.
Astros are 40-12 in their last 52 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Astros are 52-18 in their last 70 games on grass.
Astros are 39-14 in their last 53 games following a win.
Astros are 54-21 in their last 75 overall.
Astros are 51-20 in their last 71 Friday games.
Astros are 56-25 in their last 81 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Astros are 35-16 in their last 51 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Astros are 4-1 in Verlander’s last 5 starts vs. American League East.
Astros are 4-1 in Verlander’s last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
Astros are 11-3 in Verlander’s last 14 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Astros are 7-2 in Verlander’s last 9 Friday starts.
Astros are 30-9 in Verlander’s last 39 road starts.
Astros are 20-6 in Verlander’s last 26 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Astros are 16-6 in Verlander’s last 22 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Astros are 8-3 in Verlander’s last 11 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Astros are 10-4 in Verlander’s last 14 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Astros are 36-15 in Verlander’s last 51 starts.
Astros are 56-24 in Verlander’s last 80 starts on grass.
Yankees are 40-11 in their last 51 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Yankees are 54-19 in their last 73 home games.
Yankees are 60-22 in their last 82 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Yankees are 61-27 in their last 88 games on grass.
Yankees are 9-4 in their last 13 playoff home games.
Yankees are 84-38 in their last 122 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Yankees are 22-10 in their last 32 Friday games.
Yankees are 105-48 in their last 153 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Yankees are 13-6 in their last 19 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Yankees are 96-45 in their last 141 games following a loss.
Yankees are 2-6 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Yankees are 1-5 in their last 6 vs. American League West.
Yankees are 1-5 in their last 6 League Championship games.
Yankees are 6-0 in Paxton’s last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Yankees are 6-0 in Paxton’s last 6 home starts.
Yankees are 5-0 in Paxton’s last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
Yankees are 4-0 in Paxton’s last 4 Friday starts.
Yankees are 5-0 in Paxton’s last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Yankees are 6-0 in Paxton’s last 6 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Yankees are 6-1 in Paxton’s last 7 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Yankees are 5-1 in Paxton’s last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Yankees are 4-1 in Paxton’s last 5 starts vs. American League West.
Yankees are 20-7 in Paxton’s last 27 starts on grass.
Yankees are 20-8 in Paxton’s last 28 starts.
Under is 4-1-1 in Astros last 6 on grass.
Under is 4-1 in Astros last 5 League Championship games.
Under is 4-1-1 in Astros last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-1-1 in Astros last 6 overall.
Under is 4-1-1 in Astros last 6 playoff games.
Under is 4-1-1 in Astros last 6 vs. American League East.
Over is 12-4-1 in Astros last 17 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 9-3 in Astros last 12 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Over is 5-2 in Astros last 7 League Championship road games.
Under is 5-2 in Astros last 7 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Over is 5-2 in Astros last 7 playoff road games.
Under is 11-5-1 in Astros last 17 road games.
Under is 15-7-2 in Astros last 24 Friday games.
Under is 4-1-1 in Verlander’s last 6 Friday starts.
Under is 4-1 in Verlander’s last 5 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 7-2 in Verlander’s last 9 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 7-2 in Verlander’s last 9 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 27-8-1 in Verlander’s last 36 starts with 4 days of rest.
Under is 12-5 in Verlander’s last 17 starts overall.
Under is 7-3 in Verlander’s last 10 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 18-8 in Verlander’s last 26 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Under is 4-1 in Yankees last 5 on grass.
Over is 4-1 in Yankees last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 4-1 in Yankees last 5 home games.
Under is 4-1 in Yankees last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 4-1 in Yankees last 5 League Championship games.
Under is 4-1 in Yankees last 5 overall.
Under is 4-1 in Yankees last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 4-1 in Yankees last 5 playoff games.
Under is 4-1 in Yankees last 5 vs. American League West.
Over is 8-3 in Yankees last 11 playoff home games.
Under is 5-2 in Yankees last 7 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 7-3 in Yankees last 10 League Championship home games.
Over is 6-0 in Paxton’s last 6 starts with 4 days of rest.
Over is 6-1 in Paxton’s last 7 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Over is 6-1 in Paxton’s last 7 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Paxton’s last 5 Friday starts.
Over is 4-1 in Paxton’s last 5 home starts.
Over is 4-1 in Paxton’s last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 9-3 in Paxton’s last 12 starts overall.
Over is 8-3 in Paxton’s last 11 starts on grass.
Astros are 4-0 in Verlander’s last 4 starts vs. Yankees.
Astros are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Under is 4-1 in Verlander’s last 5 starts vs. Yankees.
Over is 5-2-1 in the last 8 meetings in New York.
