Houston (23-11) at NY Yankees (21-10)
When: Thursday, May 11th
Where: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
Time: 7:05 ET | TV: MLB Network
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The top two teams in the American League will open a four-game series in the Bronx as the New York Yankees host the Houston Astros on Thursday night. New York has been dominant thus far at home, posting a 12-3 record while scoring seven runs a game. Houston has won four of five including a two-game sweep against the Atlanta Braves, scoring 12 runs. While the Yankees bats have been carrying this team, the Houston arms have helped them to a fast start. The Astros are second in the Majors in both ERA (3.42) and WHIP (1.18) and are tops in strikeouts. Dallas Keuchel will attempt to slow New York tonight and he’s having a terrific bounce-back season. He has won each of his five decisions and pitching at least seven innings in all seven of his starts, the first six of which saw him allow two runs or fewer. Keuchel has had success against the Yankees in his career, posting a 1.63 ERA in five regular-season meetings and tossing six scoreless innings at New York in the 2015 American League Wild Card game. The Yankees, who saw their six-game winning streak come to an end with a 5-3 loss at Cincinnati on Tuesday, give the ball to right-hander Michael Pineda. Houston’s Carlos Correa had two doubles and two RBIs in Wednesday’s win and is batting .429 over his last seven games. New York SS Didi Gregorius went 4-for-8 with a home run and four RBIs in the two-game series in Cincinnati.
Pitchers: Astros – Dallas Keuchel (5-0, 1.88 ERA) | Yankees – Michael Pineda (3-1, 3.12)
Keuchel is coming off his worst outing thus far as he allowed five runs in 8+ innings at the Los Angeles Angels on Friday, although three of the runs came in after he left with the bases loaded in the ninth inning. Including the one postseason start, Keuchel is 3-1 with 1.61 ERA in four career starts at Yankee Stadium. Several New York hitters have struggled against Keuchel, including Starlin Castro (1-for-11, seven strikeouts) and Jacoby Ellsbury (2-for-14).
Pineda’s first start of the year is a thing of the past, as he’s posted a 3-0 record with a 2.32 ERA in five starts since. The Yankees have won all five of those games, including his solid effort at Wrigley Field on Friday in which he allowed two runs and three hits in six innings. Correa is 5-for-8 with two doubles and two home runs against Pineda, who won both of his starts against Houston last year despite giving up seven runs in 12 innings.
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Keuchel seems to be back to his 2015 Cy Young form and his success at Yankee Stadium can’t be ignored. On the other side, Pineda has struggled against the Houston lineup. This will be a long, fun series to watch. I say Houston takes the first one.
Pick: Aastros +110
W/L TRENDS
| Houston |
- Astros are 8-0 in their last 8 during game 1 of a series.
- Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Astros are 8-2 in their last 10 games on grass.
- Astros are 7-2 in their last 9 vs. American League East.
- Astros are 6-2 in their last 8 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Astros are 18-6 in their last 24 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Astros are 19-7 in their last 26 overall.
- Astros are 5-2 in their last 7 games following a win.
- Astros are 5-2 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Astros are 7-3 in their last 10 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Astros are 9-4 in their last 13 road games.
- Astros are 24-52 in their last 76 Thursday games.
- Astros are 4-0 in Keuchel’s last 4 road starts.
- Astros are 5-0 in Keuchel’s last 5 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Astros are 5-0 in Keuchel’s last 5 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Astros are 5-0 in Keuchel’s last 5 starts.
- Astros are 21-5 in Keuchel’s last 26 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Astros are 16-5 in Keuchel’s last 21 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Astros are 48-23 in Keuchel’s last 71 starts on grass.
- Astros are 1-5 in Keuchel’s last 6 Thursday starts.
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| NY Yankees |
- Yankees are 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Yankees are 10-1 in their last 11 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Yankees are 5-1 in their last 6 games following a loss.
- Yankees are 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Yankees are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
- Yankees are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series.
- Yankees are 7-2 in their last 9 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Yankees are 20-6 in their last 26 overall.
- Yankees are 20-6 in their last 26 games on grass.
- Yankees are 16-5 in their last 21 vs. American League West.
- Yankees are 6-2 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Yankees are 37-14 in their last 51 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Yankees are 37-16 in their last 53 home games.
- Yankees are 38-18 in their last 56 Thursday games.
- Yankees are 5-0 in Pineda’s last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Yankees are 5-0 in Pineda’s last 5 starts.
- Yankees are 5-0 in Pineda’s last 5 starts on grass.
- Yankees are 6-0 in Pineda’s last 6 Thursday starts.
- Yankees are 4-0 in Pineda’s last 4 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Yankees are 4-1 in Pineda’s last 5 starts vs. American League West.
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OU TRENDS
| Houston |
- Over is 10-1 in Astros last 11 vs. American League East.
- Over is 5-1 in Astros last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Astros last 7 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Astros last 5 Thursday games.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Astros last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 9-3-1 in Astros last 13 road games.
- Under is 14-5 in Astros last 19 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 23-9-1 in Astros last 33 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Over is 5-2 in Astros last 7 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 5-2-1 in Astros last 8 overall.
- Over is 5-2-1 in Astros last 8 on grass.
- Over is 5-2 in Astros last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 7-3-1 in Astros last 11 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 8-2-1 in Keuchel’s last 11 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 13-5 in Keuchel’s last 18 starts vs. American League East.
- Under is 5-2 in Keuchel’s last 7 Thursday starts.
- Under is 5-2 in Keuchel’s last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 15-7-1 in Keuchel’s last 23 starts with 5 days of rest.
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| NY Yankees |
- Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Over is 7-0 in Yankees last 7 home games.
- Over is 7-1 in Yankees last 8 games following a loss.
- Over is 7-1 in Yankees last 8 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 6-1 in Yankees last 7 vs. American League West.
- Over is 6-1 in Yankees last 7 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 5-1 in Yankees last 6 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 9-2 in Yankees last 11 overall.
- Over is 9-2 in Yankees last 11 on grass.
- Over is 14-4 in Yankees last 18 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 15-5-2 in Yankees last 22 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
- Under is 17-6-3 in Yankees last 26 Thursday games.
- Under is 5-2 in Yankees last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Pineda’s last 4 Thursday starts.
- Over is 4-0 in Pineda’s last 4 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Over is 4-0 in Pineda’s last 4 home starts.
- Over is 6-1 in Pineda’s last 7 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 5-1 in Pineda’s last 6 starts on grass.
- Over is 5-1 in Pineda’s last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-1 in Pineda’s last 6 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Pineda’s last 5 starts overall.
- Over is 5-2 in Pineda’s last 7 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
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HEAD TO HEAD
- Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in New York.
- Astros are 4-1 in Keuchels last 5 starts vs. Yankees.
- Astros are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings.
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