Army (9-3) vs San Diego State (10-2)
When: Saturday, December 23rd 2017
Where: Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX
Time: 3:30 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: San Diego State -6/50
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If you love seeing teams run the football, then the Armed Forces Bowl from Fort Worth, Texas is the bowl game for you featuring the Army Black Knights and San Diego State Aztecs. San Diego State’s Rashaad Penny received five All-American awards after leading the country in rushing yards (2,027) while scoring 19 times, and only got stronger as the season wore on. Penny put together four straight 200-yard rushing efforts while scoring nine touchdowns in the last four games of the regular season. The Black Knights, as we already know, always run the football well, and their 355.8 rushing yards per game led the entire nation. Army joined Navy as the only FBS schools this season to surpass 4,000 total yards on the ground. Quarterback Ahmad Bradshaw is the leading rusher on the team with 1,566 yards and 12 TDs, while 11 different Black Knights players had at least one rushing score this season. Army had an impressive 9-3 record this season with five of their last six games decided by five or fewer points, going 4-1 in those contests. The Black Knights escaped with a 14-13 win against Navy in their annual December showdown to capture the Commander-in-Chief trophy for the first time in 1996.
All you need to know about the Army offense is that they run on almost every single play. In fact,the Black Knights threw just 61 passes all year, completing 19, while their 29.6 passing yards a game ranks dead-last in FBS. The defense has really put things together this season, allowing opponents to score points on just 70 percent of their red-zone visits – tied with USC, and behind only Troy, TCU and Virginia Tech. The Black Knights were also one of the top teams in the country at holding onto the football, turning it over just nine times in 12 games – tied for third-fewest turnovers in Division I.
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San Diego State’s season took an ugly turn in October with one-sided home losses to Boise State and Fresno State in back-to-back weeks. Both of those teams met in the conference championship game. The Aztecs bounced-back, however, behind Penny and reeled off four consecutive routs to close the season, outscoring Hawaii, San Jose State, Nevada and New Mexico by a combined 110 points en route to their school-record eighth consecutive bowl appearance. Quarterback Christian Chapman plays without a lot of pressure because of the heavy workload Penny gets, but acquitted himself well with 1,848 passing yards, 13 touchdown passes and just three interceptions during the season.
NCAA FOOTBALL ODDS – SCORES – PUBLIC PLAYS
Bowl games with Navy or Army are always tough to predict and I tend to go against those schools because they run their offenses so differently than every other college team in the country. I was impressed by Army all season and took them over Navy two week ago, and I’m going to stay with them. Their defense is the key and should be able to keep this close.
Pick: Army +6.5
TRENDS:
- Aztecs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
- Aztecs are 17-4-2 ATS in their last 23 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Aztecs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Aztecs are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Aztecs are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Aztecs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Aztecs are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games following a ATS win.
- Aztecs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Aztecs are 10-4-2 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Aztecs are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games following a straight up win.
- Aztecs are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 non-conference games.
- Aztecs are 2-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Aztecs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. INDEP.
- Black Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in December.
- Black Knights are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games.
- Black Knights are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Black Knights are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games following a ATS win.
- Black Knights are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. MWC.
- Under is 7-0 in Aztecs last 7 vs. INDEP.
- Over is 6-1 in Aztecs last 7 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in Aztecs last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-1 in Aztecs last 5 Bowl games.
- Under is 4-1 in Aztecs last 5 games in December.
- Under is 4-1 in Aztecs last 5 neutral site games.
- Over is 12-3-1 in Aztecs last 16 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Aztecs last 5 bowl games.
- Over is 7-2-1 in Aztecs last 10 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Over is 7-2-1 in Aztecs last 10 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Aztecs last 5 non-conference games.
- Over is 8-3 in Aztecs last 11 games following a ATS win.
- Under is 5-2 in Aztecs last 7 games overall.
- Under is 5-2 in Aztecs last 7 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 21-10-1 in Aztecs last 32 games on grass.
- Under is 4-0 in Black Knights last 4 vs. MWC.
- Over is 5-1 in Black Knights last 6 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Black Knights last 5 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Under is 16-5 in Black Knights last 21 games in December.
- Under is 16-5 in Black Knights last 21 neutral site games.
- Under is 6-2 in Black Knights last 8 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 26-9-1 in Black Knights last 36 games on grass.
- Under is 35-16-1 in Black Knights last 52 vs. a team with a winning record.
