Alabama (11-1) vs Clemson (12-1)
When: Monday, January 1st 2018
Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Time: 8:45 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Alabama -1.5/47
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For the third consecutive season, the Alabama Crimson Tide and Clemson Tigers will meet in the College Football Playoffs – this time in a semifinals matchup that takes place at the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans. The Tide defeated the Tigers in the national title game two seasons ago before Clemson’s Deshaun Watson led his team on a dramatic game-winning drive in last season’s championship game. Clemson’s only loss this season was at Syracuse on a Friday night, but the Tigers rebounded well to leave no doubt that they were one of the nation’s top four teams. The Tide actually had to sweat out the selection process as they lost to Auburn and didn’t reach the SEC title game before landing the final spot over Ohio State. The Crimson Tide’s vaunted defense won’t have to face Watson anymore, who passed for 825 passing yards and seven touchdowns in the two games, but will now face a talented quarterback in Kelly Bryant. Alabama ranks first in scoring defense (11.5) and second in total defense (257.8), while Bryant (2,678 yards, 13 touchdowns passing; 646 yards and 11 scores rushing) will try and carve out a legacy for himself.
Sophomore quarterback Jalen Hurts (768 rushing yards, eight touchdowns) can make things happen with his feet, but the passing game can be an issue at times. Hurts passed for 1,940 yards and 15 scoring strikes this season, but went 12-of-22 for 112 yards in the regular season finale loss to Auburn. First-team All-American strong safety Minkah Fitzpatrick (52 tackles, one interception) is the leader of the defensive unit, but gets help from junior free safety Ronnie Harrison (team-best 68 tackles, tied for team lead with three interceptions) and sophomore defensive end Raekwon Davis (team-high 6.5 sacks). Alabama allowed 10 points or less in eight of their 12 games.
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The Tigers are just as good as the Crimson Tide on defense as they rank right behind them in scoring defense (12.8) and sixth in total defense (277.9). First-team All-American defensive end Clelin Ferrell (team-high 8.5 sacks and 17 tackles for losses) is one of the headliners along with two second-team All-Americans in junior defensive tackle Christian Wilkins (47 tackles, 4.5 sacks) and senior linebacker Dorian O’Daniel (team-best 99 tackles, two interceptions, two fumble recoveries). On offense, junior wide receiver Hunter Renfrow, who caught the winning score in last season’s title game, has a team-best 55 receptions, while freshman Travis Etienne (744 yards, 13 touchdowns) and sophomore Tavien Feaster (659, seven) lead the rushing attack.
NCAA FOOTBALL ODDS – SCORES – PUBLIC PLAYS
Which offense can crack the opposing defense in this one? That’s the key to this game. In my opinion, Clemson has the advantage there, because I just don’t trust Hurts when he is forced to throw the ball and this Clemson defense knows his game well. Bryant is no Watson, but the kid is good enough to beat this Alabama team.
Pick: Clemson +3
TRENDS:
- Crimson Tide are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on fieldturf.
- Crimson Tide are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
- Crimson Tide are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS loss.
- Crimson Tide are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. ACC.
- Crimson Tide are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Crimson Tide are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
- Crimson Tide are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games following a straight up loss.
- Crimson Tide are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Crimson Tide are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in January.
- Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Monday games.
- Tigers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 bowl games.
- Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.
- Tigers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.
- Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
- Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. SEC.
- Tigers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games.
- Tigers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Tigers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Tigers are 7-2-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Tigers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Tigers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
- Tigers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Tigers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games on fieldturf.
- Over is 5-0 in Crimson Tide last 5 games in January.
- Under is 5-1 in Crimson Tide last 6 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in Crimson Tide last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Crimson Tide last 6 vs. ACC.
- Under is 4-1 in Crimson Tide last 5 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Under is 7-2 in Crimson Tide last 9 non-conference games.
- Over is 10-3 in Crimson Tide last 13 bowl games.
- Over is 19-6-1 in Crimson Tide last 26 neutral site games.
- Over is 15-5-1 in Crimson Tide last 21 games on fieldturf.
- Under is 5-2 in Crimson Tide last 7 games overall.
- Under is 10-4 in Crimson Tide last 14 games following a straight up loss.
- Over is 5-2 in Crimson Tide last 7 games following a ATS loss.
- Under is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 games in January.
- Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 5-1 in Tigers last 6 games on fieldturf.
- Under is 5-1 in Tigers last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 games following a ATS win.
- Under is 7-2-1 in Tigers last 10 games overall.
- Under is 6-2-1 in Tigers last 9 games following a straight up win.
- Under is 5-2 in Tigers last 7 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
